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[B]Bias:[/B] Take care... But while 0.9821 supports I see more risk of gains else breach will extend losses

Yesterday did see extension higher to the 0.9954 area and just above to 0.9964. From there we appear to have seen a recycling of the correction back to the 0.9848 corrective low and just below to 0.9821 this morning. This support is critical as while it holds any break back above the 0.9880-90 pivot resistance would appear to be a bullish signal for follow-through back above 0.9916 to 0.9945-64 at least. I suspect that eventually it could move even further with the 1.0020-50 area implied.

However, any earlier breach of 0.9821 which, considering the expectations in the Europeans must be kept in mind, the ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.2 KB, 62 次查看)

[B]Bias:[/B] I tend to favor this lower to 109.00-20 but beware of support at 109.44-62

Yesterday's losses fit in better with a bearish structure but should have limited downside today. I can't even rule out a scenario of consolidation. The key supports are at 109.44-62 which, while it holds, could see the correction recycle back to the 110.26 area. If this downward move & correction develops then look for bearish trade set ups at 110.20-30. Any loss of 109.44 would extend losses to the 109.00-20 area before a correction. In case this becomes more aggressively bearish then also watch the 108.33 low.

Only an earlier break above 110.30 and the 110.55 pivot resistance would extend gains back to 110.85-18 and perhaps ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.3 KB, 72 次查看)

Bias: I suspect a test of the 0.9953-77 area but then a correction higher again

Friday's losses were just a few pips lower than expected but the pullback reached the expected resistance area and I feel this should still cap for losses to move down to the 0.9953-77 area. Look for bullish trade set ups here (allow for 0.9929.) From this anticipated test I will be looking for one last push higher that would initially retest the 1.0079 corrective high and then on to 1.0000-05 and 1.0127 with the next high expected around 1.0158-88.

Only immediately below 0.9929 would extend losses more directly to 0.9907 and 0.9867-89 at least.

Please view the complete analysis in the attached PDF file.
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Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.1 KB, 65 次查看)

[B]Bias: [/B] It seems to me as if 1.5585 must support for the rally to extend to 1.5750-75 before reversing lower

It was a rather whippy day here also and does cause some concern. I still tend to prefer a bullish stance on the day but also recognize the risk of a resumption of losses if 1.5584 breaks followed by yesterday's 1.5511 low. To cover the bullish side first, the 1.5584 low seen thus far does seem to be critical if we are to retain a bullish stance. To be safe it will be safer to wait for a break above the 1.5611 high to confirm the upside which would then see extension back to the 1.5666-79 area, probably 1.5696 before a correction and then extension to the preferred 1.5750-75 resistance. Look for a bearish trade ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.4 KB, 71 次查看)