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Key Level to Watch for the Yen

Posted 03-16-2009 at 04:57 PM by fxKnight.com (FXKnight)
Andrei Pehar, Sr. Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com

We are approaching a key level for the Japanese Yen vs. the US Dollar, one which proved to be of significance back in March of 2008, and again in November. If 98.50 holds as resistance, then we would likely head back to retest 95.74 as support (this also corresponds to the weekly 21 EMA).

If price can stay north of that line, and eventually break 98.50 resistance to find some support there, the next likely targets would be 100.56 and 102.44 If, on the other hand 98.50 proves unbreakable resistance, and support at 95.74 gives way, then we could be looking at a drop back down to 90.63, perhaps 88.07 as a secondary target.

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New Lows for the Dow − Where is the Bottom?

Posted 03-09-2009 at 01:37 PM by fxKnight.com (FXKnight)
Fri, Mar 6 2009, 10:42 GMT
by Andrei Pehar

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average has taken another beating the past two months, dragged down primarily by some of its component companies, including: General Motors, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JP Morgan Chase.

This non-stop slide is part of the reason for the US Dollar’s new-found strength, as the sell-off in assets created by market uncertainty and also funds’ need to fulfill redemptions creates a big demand for cash. And currencies respond to supply and demand just like any other commodity.

So where is the US market likely to find bottom?

The next key support level is waiting at 6556. What happens...
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US Posts Lowest Consumer Confidence on Record

Posted 02-25-2009 at 03:22 PM by fxKnight.com (FXKnight)
Tue, Feb 24 2009, 15:28 GMT
by Andrei Pehar

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The US just released a Consumer Confidence reading of 25, the lowest on record (the report has been released since 1967). This marks a sharp decline from January's reading of 37.4

The Consumer Confidence Index is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer spending, with current attitudes understandably negative in light of rising unemployment, large corporate lay-offs, and the difficulty of finding new jobs.

The one light at the end of the tunnel is that the Housing Price Index showed an increase to 0.1% (up from a recently revised figure of -2.2%). It is hoped that stabilization in housing prices would lure buyers...
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How Much Further Can the Pound Fall?

Posted 01-14-2009 at 07:39 PM by fxKnight.com (FXKnight)
Tue, Jan 13 2009, 13:33 GMT
by Andrei Pehar

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The British Pound has been steadily declining against the US Dollar since reaching its high of 2.1160 in November of 2007. Have we finally reached bottom, or are there further lows in store?

To answer that question, we would first need to see price break out of its current range between 1.4481 and 1.5564, a range which has effectively been in place since early November of 2008.

We currently find ourselves beneath a key Fibonacci level at 1.4738, and moving down quickly towards the weekly S1 pivot at 1.4547 - if this level holds as support, then we will likely see price move back to re-test 1.5136 as resistance....
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Andrei Pehar, Sr. Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com

Andrei is a private fund manager, consultant to management, and a sought-after speaker and coach for professional traders and individual investors alike. At a young age he was already playing in professional chess tournaments, and went on to further hone his strategic skills through years spent studying Japanese martial arts. From both worlds, he brings with him a unique perspective to the financial markets.

His client list includes prestigious names such as UBS, Tower Asset Management (named by Bloomberg as top asset manager), Clifford Associates (investment counselors since 1915, officially acknowledged as the oldest in the United States), and several other high profile firms specializing in investment and wealth management for musical artists, sports celebrities, and other ultra high net worth individuals and trusts.

Andrei is a regular contributor to BabyPips, DailyFX, and FXStreet. He is currently working on a book which will, for the first time, introduce retail traders to institutional trading strategies and techniques. His site fxKnight.com provides free tools and strategies for professional traders and individual investors (including live chat, strategy forums, training videos, worldwide market news, and streaming ForexTV).


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