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Inflation Scorecard: Gold Down, Long Rates Up

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by , 10-22-2010 at 10:57 AM (640 Views)
Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -0.5%

Gold's breakdown was this week's feature.

* In London, morning gold fixes averaged $1,358 and finished the week 2.6 percent lower at $1,345; the mean COMEX spot settlement was $1,349, but wrapped up the week with a 3.8 percent loss—at $1,325—Thursday; average daily volume for COMEX gold futures rose 10.9 percent to 209,827 contracts; open interest fell 2,886 contracts to 624,450; COMEX warehouse stocks increased 84,211 ounces (2.6 tonnes) to 11.17 million to cover 17.9 percent of open interest.

* One-year gold lease rates in London held steady to average 27 basis points (0.27 percent).

* SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD) bullion assets fell 6.1 tonnes (195,348 ounces) to 1,288.3.

* Gold exploration and development companies were hit hardest this week, evidenced by an 8.0 percent decline in the share price of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDXJ); the larger-cap Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX), a fund comprising gold producers' stocks, cheapened 6.7 percent; the gold miners (GDX/GDXJ) ratio rose to an average of 1.64-to-1; the S&P 500 Composite inched up 0.6 percent on the week, as its correlation to gold producers rose another 19 points to 52 percent; the index's correlation to bullion jumped 30 points to 38 percent.

* Domestic crude oil prices fell 2.8 percent, with nearby WTI futures settling at $80.56 on Thursday; the gold/oil multiple ticked up to 16.6x from 16.5x.

* One-year TED spreads backed down 1 basis point to 0.54 percent as Treasury yields continued to lag a steady Libor.

* COMEX gold futures' implied finance rates maintained a 22 basis-point discount to one-year Treasurys, indicating an increased likelihood of steady-to-rising rates; the one-year gold contango eased 1.9 percent, to $10.10.


* Long bond yields rose 12 basis points to an average 3.93 percent, while three-month bills nosed up a single basis point to 0.13 percent; as a result, the Treasury yield curve steepened to 380 basis points.


* The euro lost 0.7 percent vs. the greenback, finishing the week at $1.3874; cross rates averaged $1.3940.


* Daily reads of the one-year monetary inflation rate averaged -0.2 percent this week; at today's rate, the real return on three-month Treasury bills is 57 basis points.


Real (Adjusted For Monetary Inflation) Yields: Three-Month T-Bills

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