Brad's Desktop

Written by Brad Zigler
Monday, 15 December 2008 11:48

Real-time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 8.7%

There's been so much bad news about commodities and equities recently that commodity stocks have taken double gut punches. That's certainly been reflected in the charts of some of the hard asset portfolios in the Market Vectors exchange-traded fund lineup. The Market Vectors Steel ETF (NYSE Arca: SLX) tracks the AMEX Steel Index and has dipped 64% year-to-date. After sinking to $20 a share late last month, though, the fund's now holding at $30.

The prospects for steel and other industrial commodities are largely reflected in bulk shipping rates. Charter rates for large Capesize vessels ...

Written by Brad Zigler
Friday, 12 December 2008 11:55
Real-time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 8.4%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.2% in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analysts had forecast a 2% decrease in wholesale-level finished goods prices.

The decline is more moderate than the 2.8% disinflation in wholesale prices clocked in October.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called "core" PPI dipped 0.1% last month, compared with a 0.4% decline in October.

On an annualized basis, wholesale inflation measured by PPI declined from a 5.2% reading in October to 0.4% in November.

Prices received ...

Written by Brad Zigler
Monday, 08 December 2008 12:06

Real-time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 7.9%

One of the risks of keeping charts is reading too much into them. I've had a whole weekend to stare at the chart that gives us the daily subhead you see above. Our monetary inflation indicator, after sinking for months, seems to be building a base. Twice, the 7.5% level was tested and held in November. Look at the chart yourself.

Real-time Monetary Inflation Indicator

See the base? We haven't seen that before. At least, not this year.

Now look at gold. That ...

Written by Brad Zigler
Friday, 05 December 2008 12:11

Real-time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 7.8%
Spot gasoline's now less than $1 a gallon. Don't expect to see that price plastered on your neighborhood petrol stop's placard, though. Only wholesalers are going to get back change for their George Washingtons.

Thursday, January unleaded gasoline futures fell nearly 7% to settle at 96.95 cents a gallon. Since the peak of driving season in July, the oil industry's been having a fire sale on fuel. January futures have fallen more than 72% since summer.

Spot NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures

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