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Forex Education and Analysis

Getting inside the Fed's head

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by , 07-22-2008 at 06:59 PM (1204 Views)
The Fed beige book is an interesting release. It is full of little predictive goodies but is often ignored by traders. I suspect part of that is due to the fact that the beige book is full of anecdotal information and is therefore somewhat difficult to quantify. However forex traders should care about the release (and many do) because the Fed uses this same information in its decision making process.

The beige book comes out two weeks before the FOMC meeting and contains information from each of its districts in the U.S. This information is gathered from business leaders, economic experts, market experts, loan officers, bank managers, etc. and is summarized and released to the public. If you want to know some of what the Fed knows, read this report. It provides a lot of insight. In the video, I will run through two different case examples when a major change in the tone of the report created a significant shift in the risk environment and subsequent price movements in the forex.

Fortunately, the report is easy to find and free to anyone with an internet connection. You can get it by following this link. The tone of the report due this week is likely to be a key indication of the action taken by the Fed in the first week of August. Equities are likely to be the most sensitive to the report and therefore traders should be watching the JPY like a hawk (pun intended) for the next several days.

To view video, Click Here.
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Comments

  1. tom64's Avatar
    This video is great. It goes over the sentiment that is expressed in the beige book. Also goes over the topic of rate hikes and euities sell off. Due to the fact that equities are so sensitive to risk, the Fed's concern with risk sparked an equity sell off. Also discusses the USDJPY and the reason for the peak on June 11th when the last beige book came out. Highlights that if there is any change in sentiment between beige books it will move the market.
  2. tjack's Avatar
    Ya very informative video... I personally always enjoy the Beige Book releases, as like PFX said, its full of interesting data and commentary.

    One thing I always wondered is why it doesn't have a more profound impact on the market. The only thought I had was that you have to comb through it... its not like a rate decision which is either cut, hike, or stand pat. Any thoughts?
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