Forex Education and Analysis

I know the other guys here at PFX would agree with me that this long term resistance level on the USD/CHF can't be ignored. We are here again and this looks like a great chance to get some profits from a weak USD. In chart #1 you can see some of the detail of the recent movement over the last several weeks. Although the forex market breached this level somewhat today, it looks like a house of cards from a technical perspective.

The long term outlook in chart #2 shows how stable this particular level has been over the last year. How many times do you get a chance to trade a trendline that has been stable for this long? The question at this point is really what kind of confirmation should I look for prior to shorting the pair? I would be interested in waiting for any kind of bearish candlestick pattern before pulling the trigger and I may not have to wait long to get that kind of confirmation. For example, if the USD corrects in the short term, a bearish pattern of a large dark candle appearing next to Tuesday's rally that exceeds half the gains of Tuesday's candle could be an immediate signal to go short. Something like that happened on 6/11 and then again on 6/20. If you were able to withstand Junes whipsaws, those were effective trade signals.