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Retail sales are the data focus (to the extent that the economy will be the focus amid financial bedlam) for Friday in the US. The marker expects a 0.3% rise in the headline figure but a 0.2% fall, stripping out autos. How the economists came up with that consensus given crappy August auto sales makes me leary of the fall ex-autos.

PPI is expected to fall 0.5% with the core rising 0.2%.

Michigan consumer sentiment is seen at 64.0 from 63.0.

Wholesale inventories round out the calendar, seen rising 0.5%. A rise in inventories adds to government GDP calculations but if they rise to high, they steal from future production.

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Growing concerns over the fate of this USD rally. Plus a review of the trading activity throughout the day.

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Question of the Week

Q) I'm just trying to figure out what you mean when you say it's wrong to make money off a natural disaster. If I trade for a living, then am I supposed to ignore a pending natural disaster? Am I supposed to take a few days off of trading (or a few weeks) until the threat of the natural disaster has passed? What if I was long the dollar when I heard about the hurricane, would it be would wrong and unethical to change my opinion and close my positions out due to that news? If I trade professionally, and I don't, then I would be a fool to ignore any information that could change my opinion or the markets opinion and help me make money.

Just for the record I never considered shorting or buying ...

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PFX Commodities and Crosses Trading Outlook: 11 September 2008

by John Jagerson

REVIEW: 10 September 2008

Negative streams of news from the Eurozone is driving the EUR/JPY, which still looks like a nice trade to the downside into the 140 range. Likewise, an increased sensitivity to what is going on in the equity market should be good for the GBP/JPY.

The big news today, of course, is the rate cut from the RBNZ. Fifty basis points came off the benchmark rate pushing it down to 7.5% rather than the expected 7.75%. This will weigh on the commodity currencies and keep the existing trend intact.

PREVIEW: 11 September 2008

Currently we still have North ...