As I had expected, after corrected lower on Wednesday, the EURUSD continued it's bullish scenario yesterday, topped at 1.4817 and closed at 1.4792. As you might already know, I believe that we are in critical phase now with 1.4850 1.4950 as the key resistance level. Break above that area could lead us into a new stage of bullish phase towards 1.5300. The bias is clearly bullish now but we have to be careful and keep watching any reaction around 1.4850. On my daily chart below, we can see that we have potential double top formation around 1.4850 area. If price hit 1.4850 and reject further bullish momentum, we might have a potential bearish correction towards trendline support area (orange). Personally I prefer a bullish continuation testing 1.5000 even 1.5300 but like I said, I will be watching reactions around 1.4850 before make any decisions today. Although short position would be very uncomfortable at this phase, any rejection to move above 1.4850 should diminish my bullish view since that area is a long term key resistance level which is potentially has a bigger impact.
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the triangle has been violated to the upside indicating potential bullish view. Price now traded lower after topped at 1.6120, around 1.6057 at the time I wrote this comment. As long as the pair able to stay above 1.6000, the nearest bias remains bullish and break above 1.6120 area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6265 area. However break below 1.6000 and a movement back into the triangle should be seen as the bullish scenario failure and could give a chance for the bearish pressure to regain it's momentum. So I will be watching any reactions around 1.6000 area today before make any decision.
The USDJPY didn't make significant movement yesterday. Although I still prefer a bearish scenario, it's clear that the bearish pressure seems to start losing some momentum. In consolidation phase after significant bearish, losing some bearish momentum is surely normal. On h4 chart below we can see that although price failed to move consistently above the trendline, now is the third attempt to break above the trendline. Will it succeed? I hope not, but if it succeed we may once again enter a bullish correction phase. So far, I have no technical signal for a reversal, so any upside momentum should be seen as correction. I will stay away from the market for now. Immediate resistance at 89.15. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction. Initial support at 88.22. Break below that area should continue the bearish pressure testing 87.10.
As I had expected, after corrected higher and found resistance at the trendline on Wednesday, the USDCHF continued it's bearish scenario yesterday, bottomed at 1.0228 and closed at 1.0261. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 1.0166. I think I will have a good short trade set up if price move higher around the trendline resistance area and start to show rejection to move higher. Immediate resistance at 1.0305/25 area.
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