EURUSD Forecast: Remains sideways, need fundamental catalyst. Calm before the storm?
The EURUSD continued it's indecisive movement yesterday. On my daily chart below we can see that the pair still struggling around the trendline support area. Basically, the trendline support remains my key technical focus at this phase and a strong support area to prevent further downside pressure which keep the bullish scenario intact. I think I will keep out from the market until I have a clear and convincing movement, below or above the trendline. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4850. Break above that area could make this pair vulnerable for further upside pressure re-testing 1.4950 1.5060 area. Initial support at 1.4700 1.4680 area. Break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Euro.
On fundamental side, we will have some key economic numbers this week as US (tomorrow) and Europe (Thursday) are going to announce interest rate and US NFP on Friday. I am expecting these fundamental events to be the market movers to take us out from this choppy market. I feel this week is going to be a very important week as what happen here might have a bigger impact on longer term outlook, whether we will continue the bullish scenario towards 1.5300 or back towards 1.4450 area.
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On my daily chart below we can see that the upper line of the bearish channel provides good support area preventing further downside pressure but the upside momentum was also limited. I will keep out for now and wait for further development as we are going to have some important fundamental numbers this week. US is going to announce it's interest rate tomorrow, while UK on Thursday. UK's HPI and PMI number tomorrow and US NFP on Friday are also expected to give us clearer technical direction in longer outlook, whether we are going to continue the bullish towards 1.7042 or back towards 1.6000 area. Immediate resistance remains at 1.6488 and initial support at 1.6320 and the upper line of the bearish channel.
Like I said yesterday, the CCI gave us valid signal about potential upside rebound as the pair corrected to the upside, topped at 90.68, closed at 90.39 and now traded around 90.40 at the time I wrote this comment. I still consider this rebound as a normal movement and as long as the pair stay below the bullish channel, I still prefer a bearish scenario. On my h4 chart below we have a minor trendline resistance (yellow) that might be our key resistance at this phase. I will be watching any reactions around that trendline and 90.50 area before make any decisions today. Consistent move above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 89.88 followed by 89.50 area.
The USDCHF still trapped in a range area of 1.0280 1.0166 as you can see in my h4 chart below. I will keep out from the market for now and wait for some key fundamental events this week, US interest rate tomorrow and NFP on Friday which expected to be the market mover to break from this range area. The ECB also going to announce it's interest rate on Thursday, so it's going to be a busy week. A breakout should continue bullish correction towards 1.0380 even 1.0450 area while a breakdown should lead us back to the downside re-testing 1.0040/00 psychological level.
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