The EURUSD slipped below my trend line support yesterday, but further bearish pressure was rejected and whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.2762 and closed at 1.2720. The bias is neutral in nearest term but this fact force me to assume that the bullish correction remains intact. Immediate resistance at the minor trend line resistance (red) and 1.2762 (yesterday's high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing the 1.2854 (September 01 high). On the downside, we still need a clear break below the trend line support and 1.2650 area to end the bullish correction and continue the major bearish scenario at least testing 1.2588 1.2523.
Yesterday I said that break above the bearish channel could trigger further upside momentum and testing the trend line resistance (red). I was right about this, but the bullish momentum was a little bit higher from my expectation. Price slipped above the trend line resistance, topped at 1.5531 and now struggling around the trend line resistance. The bullish momentum was triggered by good UK Halifax HPI so it could be short lived, but whatever the reason, it is clear that the bearish pressure is losing some momentum. Consistent move above the trend line resistance could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.5575 and the higher trend line resistance (white). Immediate support at 1.5420. Break below that area could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger bearish pressure testing 1.5370 and 1.5296 area.
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.34 but closed higher at 83.87. On h1 chart below we have a rising wedge formation which has been violated to the downside indicating potential bearish continuation re-testing 83.35. The bias remains bearish in nearest term and the major scenario remains strongly bearish. However, note that 83.35 is a historical level, the June 1995 low, so it could provide a good support at this phase. Not to mention CCI already cross the -100 line up on h4 chart and in neutral area now indicating potential bearish exhaustion. On the downside, break below 83.35 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 81.77 in longer term view.
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term and the major scenario remains bearish but I think I will stand aside for now and stop short the pair. Two reasons. First, we may have potential bottom around 1.0060 area. Second, we have a hammer candle stick formation as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential upside pullback especially if price break above 1.0130 testing 1.0180 and 1.0220. On the downside, break below 1.0060 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0030 even lower towards 0.9917 in longer term view.
Have a great day!
Updated 09-09-2010 at 02:00 AM bySetyo Wibowo(Wrong date :))
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