The EURUSD was corrected lower significantly on Friday on concern that political crisis in Egypt may trigger higher demand for safer assets as investors are worry about potential contagion of political instability all over the Middle East. My own country, Indonesia, had similar political chaos back in 1997 1998 so judging by the amount and intensity of protesters who want Hosni Mubarak regime to step down, its not an easy job for the government to stabilize the political situation in Egypt and things can be worse any time. This fundamental/political situation makes me think twice before jump into the market and buying the Euro on a major bullish technical outlook. Not to mention that hourly chart suggests a potential bearish pullback testing 1.3550 1.3500 after the break below 1.3625 and CCI in a negative territory both in hourly and h4 chart. This political condition could still drive the market sentiment and keep pushing the Euro down back below 1.3500 1.3450 and change technical bias to a bearish view. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.3625. Break above that area could change the hourly chart bias to a neutral zone and we need another move above 1.3700 area to keep the bullish pressure remains strong re-testing 1.3800 before targeting 1.4000 even higher.
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.5824 and closed at 1.5858 after failed to break above 1.6000 key resistance on Thursday and broad Dollar strength on raising risk aversion sentiment on Middle East political crisis. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5780/50 key support area but note that overall we are still in range area of 1.6000 1.5780/50 and there are no changes in my daily technical outlook and strategies where aggressive intraday traders can short around 1.6000 or long around 1.5780/50 with tight stop loss.
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday on broad Yen and Dollar strength as concern about political crisis in the Middle East trigger risk aversion sentiment as investors are looking for safer assets. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 81.80 but note that as long as 81.80 support hold, the V-bottom bullish scenario remains intact. A clear break below 81.80 could be a threat to my bullish outlook, testing 81.30 and 80.90. Immediate resistance remains around 82.33. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 82.65 82.90 but need a clear break above 83.20 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 84.40 area.
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum on Friday but so far still unable to move consistently below 0.9400 key support area which has been a strong support since last week. We need a consistent move below 0.9400 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.9300. On the upside, immediate resistance at 0.9480. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9550 but as long as price stays below 0.9550 the major scenario remains to the downside.
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