[B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/eurusd-daily/"]EUR/USD[/URL] continues to struggle, as the pair was trading in the mid-1.27 range in Thursday’s European session, itsl lowest level since November 2012. All eyes are on Cyprus this morning as the country reopens its banks for the first time in almost two weeks. Fearing a bank run, the government has imposed strict capital controls. The political paralysis in Italy shows no signs of letting up, as coalition negotiations ended in failure on Wednesday. In economic news, German data was a mix. Retail Sales beat the estimate, but Unemployment Change was dismal. In the US, today’s highlight is Pending Home Sales. In the US, this week’s numbers have not looked sharp, and the market will be hoping for better news from today’s highlight, which is Unemployment Claims.[/B]
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
[B]EUR/USD Technical[/B]

[LIST][*]Asian session: Euro/dollar dipped below the 1.28 line and consolidated at 1.2793. The pair has moved lower in the European session.[*]Current range: 1.2746 to 1.2805.[/LIST]
Further levels in both directions: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-28png.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-28png-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL]

[LIST][*]Below: 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.[*]Above: 1.2805, 1.2880, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130 and 1.3170.[*][B]1.2746 is a weak support level. The round number of 1.27 is stronger.[/B][*][B]1.2805 is providing resistance as the pair loses ground.[/B][/LIST]
Cyprus bailout, Italian political crisis weighing on markets– click on the graph to enlarge.
[B]EUR/USD Fundamentals[/B]

[LIST][*]7:00 German Retail Sales. Exp. -0.5%. Actual 0.4%[*]8:55 German Unemployment Change. Exp. -2K. Actual 13K[*]9:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Exp. 3.2%. Actual 3.1%[*]9:00 Eurozone Private Loans. Exp. -0.7%. Actual -0.9%[*]9:10 Eurozone Retail PMI. Exp. 43.7 points[*][B]12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 340K. [/B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-trading-the-us-unemployment-claims-8/"][B]See how to trade this event with EUR[/B][B]/USD[/B][/URL][*]12:30 US Final GDP. Exp. 0.5%[*]12:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Exp. 0.9%[*]13:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 56.5 points[*]14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. -85B[/LIST]
For more events and lines, see the [I][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to dollar forecast[/URL][/I]
[B]EUR/USD Sentiment[/B]

[LIST][*][B]Markets Nervously Monitor Cyprus[/B]: Despite the fact that a [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/cyprus-deal-announced-full-of-uncertainties-eurusd-unconvinced/"]deal regarding Cyprus was announced[/URL] on Monday, the lack of details and implications has left the markets jittery. The deal has not brought calm to the small Eurozone member, which has been at the center of a financial crisis over a EUR10 billion bailout. The country’s banks are to reopen on Thursday, after being tightly shut for almost two weeks. Fearing a bank run, the government has imposed strict controls, including limiting withdrawals to 300 euros a day, and a ban on cashing checks. The size of the haircut imposed on accounts of over 100,000 euros is still unknown, and there are rumors that large depositors could lose up to 40% of their savings. The euro has taken it on the chin this week, dropping over two cents against the dollar.[*][B]Ill-timed comments by Eurogroup head[/B]: As if the crisis in Cyprus wasn’t causing enough of a headache, the head of the Eurogroup, Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, practically explained to Reuters and the Financial Times that [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-cypriot-bail-in-model-is-not-necessarily-a-one-off-eurusd-close-to-2013-lows/"]the Cypriot model could be copied[/URL]. He later backtracked on these comments, but the damage is already done: holders of large accounts in the euro-zone might feel less confident about the safety of their bank deposits. This damage to confidence has also contributed to the euro’s slump.[*][/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/eurusd-daily/"]EUR/USD[/URL] surrendered to pressure and fell below 1.28, extending losses following the announcement of a rescue package for Cyprus. The bailout agreement that was announced on Monday has left many uncertainties, and an ill timed comment by the head of the Eurogroup also put a lot of pressure on the common currency. Banks in Cyprus remain closed as officials try to sort out the details of the bank haircut. In the Eurozone, German Consumer Climate came in as expected. The markets will be watching the results of the Italian 10-year Bond Auction. In the US, today’s highlight is Pending Home Sales. The markets will be hoping for better news after New Home Sales fell way below the estimate on Tuesday.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Technical[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady, touching a low of 1.2839, before consolidating at 1.2849. The pair has edged down in the European session and [B]fell below 1.28[/B].[*]Current range: 1.2805 to 1.2880.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further levels in both directions: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-27png.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-27png-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Below: 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.[*]Above: 1.2805, 1.2880, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130 and 1.3170.[*][B]1.2880 turned into resistance after holding very well as support for quite some time.[/B][*][B]The new 2013 low of 1.2828 doesn’t provide meaningful support. 1.2805 is the key: it was the bottom border of a long term range.[/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Euro/dollar under pressure as the Cypriot crisis weighs on markets– click on the graph to enlarge.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Fundamentals[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]7:00 Gfk German Consumer Climate. Exp. 5.9 points. Actual 5.9 points[*]7:00 German Import Prices. Exp. 0.2%. Actual 0.3%[*]10:00 Italian Retail Sales. Exp. 0.4%[*][B]Tentative: Italian 10-year Bond Auction[/B][*][B]14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. -0.3% [/B][*]14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 1.5M[*]15:00 US FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks[*]15:30 US FOMC Member Eric Rosengren Speaks[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]For more events and lines, see the [I][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to dollar forecast[/URL][/I][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Sentiment[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]Cyprus crisis far from over[/B]: Despite the fact that a [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/cyprus-deal-announced-full-of-uncertainties-eurusd-unconvinced/"]deal regarding Cyprus was announced[/URL] on Monday, the lack of details and implications disappointed markets once again. The deal has not brought calm to the small Eurozone member, as fears of a bank run continue. All banks in Cyprus will remain closed until Thursday, and capital controls will be put in place. Cypriots cannot withdraw more than 100 euros from cash machines in some banks. The size of the haircut imposed on big accounts is still unknown. The euro responded to the new bailout announcement on Monday by plunging about 150 points, and remains under pressure, as it trades in the mid-1.28 range.[*][B]Ill-timed comments by Eurogroup head[/B]: The head of the Eurogroup, Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, practically explained to Reuters and the Financial Times that [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-cypriot-bail-in-model-is-not-necessarily-a-one-off-eurusd-close-to-2013-lows/"]the Cypriot model could be copied[/URL]. He later backtracked on these comments, but the damage is already done: holders of large accounts in the euro-zone might feel less confident about the safety of their bank deposits. This potential damage to confidence has also contributed to the euro’s latest troubles.[*][B]Weak PMIs across Europe: [/B]The latest PMIs were weak in France, Germany and the Eurozone.[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-eurusd-falls/"]These weak numbers point to continued stagnation in the Eurozone, but what is especially worrying is the German data, which points to trouble in the Eurozone’s largest economy[/URL]. The confidence that Germany’s dip in Q4 was a one-off has been hit. Business confidence indicators remained mixed in the zone’s locomotive.[*][B]US QE here to stay:[/B] Ben Bernanke and his colleagues made no policy changes: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=41907&action=edit"]The benchmark interest rate remains at 0%-0.25%, and the Fed will continue to purchase $85 billion in assets each month.[/URL] The FOMC did acknowledge the improvement in the economy, but Bernanke also said that too many people are just not counted as unemployed, and that the situation is far from satisfactory.[*][B]US data disappoints: [/B]There has been a lot of talk of the US recovery gaining traction, but Tuesday’s US key releases point to continued weakness in housing, consumer confidence and manufacturing. Core Durable Goods Orders posted its first decline since last September, dropping 0.5%. This surprised the markets, which had expected a 0.7% gain. CB Consumer Confidence could not repeat February’s excellent numbers, and plunged from 69.6 points to 59.7 points, way below the estimate of 67.9 points. New Home Sales also dropped, coming in at 411 thousand, well of the forecast of 426 thousand. There was better news from second-tier releases, as Durable Goods Orders and the &P/CS Composite-20 HPI beat their estimates. The US will have to produce stronger key releases to convince the market that the recovery is deepening and the economy is headed in the right direction.[/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]EUR/USD[/URL] is settling down in a low range, after making a convincing break of support. The deal that was announced in Cyprus left many uncertainties, and an ill timed comment by the head of the Eurogroup also put a lot of pressure on the common currency. Banks in Cyprus remain closed as officials try to sort out the details of the bank haircut. The focus will shift to the US for some time, as a wide range of indicators is expected to give an updated picture of the US economy.
[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Technical[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Asian session: Euro/dollar made an attempt to break above the 1.2880 line, but had no luck.[*]Current range: 1.2805 to 1.2880.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further levels in both directions: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-march-26-settles-in-low-range-as-the-crisis-in-cyprus-continues/eur-usd-at-new-low-range-as-banks-remain-closed-in-cyprus-march-26-2013/"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-at-new-low-range-as-banks-remain-closed-in-Cyprus-March-26-2013-350x186.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Below: 1.2805, 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.[*]Above: 1.2880, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130 and 1.3170.[*][B]1.2880 turned into resistance after holding very well as support for quite some time.[/B][*][B]The new 2013 low of 1.2805 doesn’t provide meaningful support. 1.2805 is the key: it was the bottom border of a long term range.[/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Euro/dollar under pressure as the Cypriot crisis continues– click on the graph to enlarge.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Fundamentals[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]12:30 US durable goods orders, exp. +3.9%, core orders exp. +0.7%.[/B][*]13:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, exp. +7.9% (year over year).[*][B]14:00 US New Home Sales, exp. 426K[/B][*]14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence, exp. 67.9 points.[*]14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index, exp. 8 points.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]For more events and lines, see the [I][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to dollar forecast[/URL][/I][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Sentiment[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]Cyprus crisis far from over[/B]: After a [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/cyprus-deal-announced-full-of-uncertainties-eurusd-unconvinced/"]deal regarding Cyprus was announced[/URL] in the early hours of Monday, the lack of details and implications disappointed markets once again. In fear of a bank run, all the banks will remain closed until Thursday instead of today. Capital controls will be put in place. Cypriots cannot withdraw more than 100 euros from cash machines in some banks. The size of the haircut imposed on big accounts is still unknown.[*][B]Ill-timed comments[/B]: The head of the Eurogroup, Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, practically explained to Reuters and the Financial Times that [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-cypriot-bail-in-model-is-not-necessarily-a-one-off-eurusd-close-to-2013-lows/"]the Cypriot model could be copied[/URL]. He later backtracked on these comments, but the damage is already done: holders of large accounts in the euro-zone might feel less comfortable now. This also contributed to a weaker euro.[*][B]Weak economies: [/B]The latest PMIs were weak in France and Germany.. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-eurusd-falls/"]These weak numbers point to continued stagnation in the Eurozone, but what is especially worrying is the German data, which points to trouble in the Eurozone’s largest economy[/URL]. The confidence that Germany’s dip in Q4 was a one-off has been hit. Business confidence indicators remained mixed in the zone’s locomotive.[*][B]US QE here to stay:[/B] Ben Bernanke and his colleagues made no policy changes: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=41907&action=edit"]The benchmark interest rate remains at 0%-0.25%, and the Fed will continue to purchase $85 billion in assets each month.[/URL] The FOMC did acknowledge the improvement in the economy, but Bernanke also said that too many people are just not counted as unemployed, and that the situation is far from satisfactory.[*][B]US posts solid numbers: [/B]Contrary to Bernanke, the economy continues showing signs of accelerated improvement: jobless claims were up slightly to 336 thousand, but beat the estimate of 343 thousand. This marked the fourth straight week that the key employment indicator has been below expectations, sitting at 5 year lows. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/more-solid-us-data-philly-index-goes-positive/"]There was good news as well from the manufacturing sector, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 2.0 points, beating the estimate of -1.6 points[/URL]. Existing Home Sales were solid. Today’s new home sales will be interesting to watch.[/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]The British pound enjoyed another strong week, gaining over one cent against the US dollar. GBP/USD pushed above the 1.52 level, closing at 1.5229. There are nine releases in the upcoming week, highlighted by Current Account. [/B][B]Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]The pound took advantage of positive British data late last week. Retail Sales jumped 2.1%, its sharpest rise since March 2010. As well, Public Sector Net Borrowing posted a much smaller deficit than expected.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/GBP-USD-Forecast-Mar-25-292.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/GBP-USD-Forecast-Mar-25-292-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]BBA Mortgage Approvals: [/B]Monday, 9:30. This important housing indicator has been fairly steady, but has fallen below the market estimate for the past three readings. The indicator dipped to 32.3 thousand in the February reading, well below the estimate of 34.2 thousand. The March estimate stands at 33.6 thousand.[*][B]Nationwide HPI: [/B]Tuesday, 26th-29th. Analysts are interested in House Price indexes as higher house prices signify more acitivity in the housing market. The index recorded a modest gain of 0.2% in the Febuary release, and no change is expected in the March reading.[*][B]Chancellor George Osborne Speaks: [/B]Tuesday, 10:00. Chancellor Osborne released the UK budget last week, and will testify before the Treasury Select Committee in London. Remarks by the Chancellor which are more hawkish than expected is bullish for the British pound.[*][B]CBI Realized Sales: [/B]Tuesday, 11:00. The indicator came in at 8 points in February, a steep drop from the January reading of 17 points. As well, this figure was well below the estimate of 15 points. The markets are expecting a rebound in March, with a forecast of 12 points. Will the indicator meet or beat the estimate?[*][B]Current Account[B]: [/B][/B]Wednesday, 9:30. Current Account is the highlight of this week. This is a key indicator, as a stronger reading indicates that foreigners are purchasing more British goods and services with pounds. The February reading saw a sharp reduction in the Current Account Deficit, which fell to 12.8 billion pounds. This beat the estimate of 14.1 billion pounds. The March forecast calls for a modest drop in the deficit, at 12.4 billion pounds.[*][B]Final GDP: [/B]Wednesday, 9:30. Analysts are always interested in GDP releases, which measure the change in value of goods and services of the UK economy. Final GDP, which is released each quarter, jumped 0.9% in Q4, its sharpest increase since 2010. The markets are bracing for a much lower reading in March, with an estimate of -0.3%. Will the indicator stay in positive territory?[*][B]GfK Consumer Confidence: [/B]Wednesday, 00:01. Consumer Confidence has been mired deep in negative territory, signifying that the British consumer is very pessimistic about the economy’s prospects. The indicator has been pegged at -26 points for the past two readings, and the March estimate stands at -27 points.[*][B]BOE Credit Conditions Survey: [/B]Thursday, 9:30. This indicator is released on a quarterly basis. The survey polls bank and other lenders for their views of short-term credit conditions in the UK. If the indicator points to rising debt levels, this in turn is indicative that lenders are comfortable providing loans and consumers are borrowing and spending more.[*][B]Index of Services: [/B]Thursday, 9:30. This third-tier indicator measures the change in Gross Value Added (GVA) of the government and private service sectors. The index dropped sharply from the February reading, posting a decline of 0.1%. The markets are expecting another weak release in March, with an estimate of -0.2%.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]GBP/USD Technical Analysis[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5102. The pair dropped to a low of 1.5026, briefly breaching the support line of 1.5061 ([URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/gbpusd-outlook-march-18-22/"]discussed last week[/URL]). The pair then rebounded, touching a high of 1.5247, before closing the week at 1.5229.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]Technical[/B] [B]lines from top to bottom:[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]We begin with resistance at 1.5750. This line saw a lot of activity in the first half of February, before the pound began its
recent slump. This is followed by resistance at 1.5648. Below, there is resistance at 1.5567. This line has remained in place since mid-February. This is followed by resistance at 1.5484. Next, there is resistance at 1.5406. Next, there is resistance is at 1.5282, whcih has not been tested since late February.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]GBP/USD is receiving support at 1.5189. This line was in a resistance role last week, but the pair broke through as pushed higher. Next, there is support at 1.5061. This is followed by 1.5010, protecting the all important 1.50 level. We next encounter support at 1.4896, just below the round number of 1.49. Below is 1.4765, which has remained intact since June 2010. The finals support level for now is at 1.4665.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]I remain bearish on GBP/USD.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]The pound enjoyed another strong week, but let’s not forget that the GBP/USD has plunged about 10 cents since the beginning of the year. The UK economy continues to sputter, in contrast to the US, which has posted some solid numbers of late. Given the sharp contrast in the prospects for the two economies, the pound will have a tough time making more gains against the dollar.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further reading:[/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/"]USD outlook[/URL].[*]For EUR/USD, check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to Dollar forecast[/URL].[*]For the Japanese yen, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY forecast[/URL].[*]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[*]For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar forecast[/URL].[/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]Dollar/yen[/URL] suffered from a second consecutive week of falls. Is it getting comfortable in the range, or can we expect a move higher anytime soon? Retail sales, Household spending and inflation data are the major events this week. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Haruhiko Kuroda began working as the governor of the BOJ, but hasn’t announced any steps quite yet. In the US,[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/fed-leaves-policy-unchanged-modest-changes-in-statement/"]Ben Bernanke and his colleagues made no change to policy[/URL], and left the dollar weakening against most currencies, apart from the euro. In Europe, the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/cyprus-living-on-the-edge/"]crisis in Cyprus[/URL] also contributed to a stronger yen, even though the “safe haven” flows are weaker than beforehand.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]USD/JPY daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/?attachment_id=41953"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Dollar-yen-technical-analysis-for-trading-forex-with-USD-JPY-350x186.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]CSPI : Monday, 23:50. Japan’s corporate service price index declined 0.2% on yearly bases in January, down for the eighth month, following a 0.4% drop in the previous month. However the pace of decline improved in recent months indicating a gradual recovery process. CSPI is expected to remain weak in coming months since firms remain cautious about raising service prices while the weaker yen and higher energy prices will push up costs. A flat reading is expected this time.[/B][*][B][B]Retail Sales: Monday, 23:50. Japan’s retail sales posted the first year-on-year decline in three months in January, down 1.1%, following a 0.3% gain in December. The drop was due to snow storms and termination of subsidies for buying low-emission vehicles. However the weakening yen and the government’s plan to increase public works spending are expected to boost consumer spending in the coming months except for car sales. A rise of 0.9% is expected now.[/B][/B][*][B][B][B]Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 23:15. Japanese manufacturing activity continued to decline in February yet at the slower pace reaching a seasonally adjusted 48.5 from 47.7 in January. The first quarter is expected to remain in contraction but a modest growth is expected in the second quarter.[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B] [B]Household Spending: Thursday, 23:30. Household spending in Japan surged 2.4%, on a yearly base, in January, following a 0.7% drop in December, marking the first year-on-year rise in two months. The data also revealed that salaries rose a real 1.1% on year to Y433,858 in January, marking the sixth straight gain. However household spending is expected to remain sluggish, since recovery in wages is still uncertain. Another gain of 0.4% is forecasted.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Tokyo Core CPI: Thursday, 23:30. Core consumer prices in Tokyo, available a month before the nationwide data, declined 0.6 percent in the year in February and the National Core CPI dropped 0.2% in January, despite recent shifts in the BOJ management and the more aggressive role it undertook to fight deflation. However small improvements in the job market and rising consumer spending are the first signs of a modest recovery. Tokyo CPI is expected to decline 0.6%, while the National Core CPI is expected to drop 0.4%.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Prelim Industrial Production: Thursday, 23:50. Japan’s industrial production increased 1.0% in January, following a 2.5% increase in December. This was the second straight climb indicating an improvement in economic outlook. Further easing measures are expected in April by the BOJ new leadership team, announced by parliament. A gain of 2.6% is forecasted.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Housing Starts: Friday, 5:00. Housing starts in Japan edged up 5.0% in January from a year earlier, rising for the fifth straight month, after posting a10.0% increase in December. Improved consumer sentiment and rising demand ahead of planned sales tax hikes boosted figures in the housing market. A decline of -1.0% is predicted now.[/B][/B][/B][/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]*All times are GMT.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]USD/JPY Technical Analysis[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Dollar/¥ began the week with a sharp drop on the crisis in Cyprus, and followed through with a recovery, rising above 96 at its best. A second wave saw the pair lose 95 once again, but the pair eventually closed just above the 94.46 line (mentioned [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/usdjpy-outlook-march-18-22/"]last week[/URL]).[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B][B]Technical lines from top to bottom[/B][/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]Looking above 100, we find the 101.44 line, which was the post crisis high seen in April 2009. The obvious number below is the very round number of 100.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]98.90 capped the pair in June 2009 and serves as minor resistance. A stronger line is the 97.80 line, which was a peak back in 2009. The new 2013 peak of 96.71 is the next line..[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]95.88 now serves as a pivotal line within the new high range. The round number of 95 was breached, and now works as support.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]The previous February 2013 peak of 94.40 should be noted. A second move towards that line in February fell short, but the pair made it in March.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]93.84 was an initial peak for the pair as it climbed higher and has served as a cap afterwards. 92.95 was an earlier resistance line, and later served as support.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]92.12 was a peak in the past, and provides some support, as seen in February 2013. The line is weaker now. 91.20, which capped the pair very temporarily on its way up in January 2013, is a support line and is now stronger.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]The ultimate support line for now is 90 – a target marked by many analysts and a round number. This line remains close after the break. Just below, 89.67 capped the pair for several days in January 2013 and is now minor support.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]Below, 89.10 was a peak in the summer of 2010, before the pair began descending and is now support. 88.40 is the peak of January 2013 and is a strong support line.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]Another recent technical view: [B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-analysis-usdjpy-hits-new-long-term-high-for-potential-uptrend-continuation/"]USD/JPY Hits New Long-Term High for Potential Uptrend Continuation[/URL] - [/B][B]by James Chen[/B][/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B][B]I am neutral on USD/JPY[/B][/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]It seems that the next big move for the yen will come on Kuroda’s first BOJ rate meeting on April 4th. We could see some range trading until then, but any big news from Europe could still rock the pair.[/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]More: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/usdjpy-likely-to-trade-in-92-96-range-in-a-much-less-trend-market/"]USD/JPY Likely to trade in 92-96 range in a much less trended market[/URL][/B][/B][/B]
[B][B][B]Further reading:[/B][/B][/B]

[LIST][*][B][B][B]For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/"]USD outlook[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For EUR/USD, check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to Dollar forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For GBP/USD (cable), look into the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/"]British Pound forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar forecast[/URL][/B][/B][/B][/LIST]

[/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]EUR/USD[/URL] was trading under a lot of pressure as the crisis in Cyprus dominated the news. This story continues evolving and will impact the pair also in the upcoming week. In addition, German retail sales, unemployment are the major event this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers ahead and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]The most recent news from Cyprus is that a big haircut will be imposed on accounts above 100K. Even if the EU still sticks to insuring accounts of under 100K, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/cyprus-drama-continues-as-bank-levy-still-not-approved/"]a lot of confidence has been lost[/URL]. Outside the crisis, the economies aren’t doing too well: fresh PMIs were very disappointing, including [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-eurusd-falls/"]a contraction in Germany’s manufacturing sector[/URL].. The euro was unable to capitalize on the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/fed-leaves-policy-unchanged-modest-changes-in-statement/"]ongoing QE in the US[/URL], while other currencies gained against the greenback.[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-ifo-slides-eurusd-follows/"]
[/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-forecast-march-25-29/eur-usd-technical-analysis-forex-trading-currencies-march-25-29-2013/"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Technical-Analysis-forex-trading-currencies-March-25-29-2013-350x186.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]GfK German Consumer Climate: Monday. Consumer sentiment in Germany continued to improve in February, rising to 5.9 from 5.8 in January, in line with market predictions. Despite the weak international economic situation, German consumers are positive regarding the well-being of their domestic economy. It is believed that sentiment will continue to strengthen. The same reading of 5.9 is expected now.[/B][*][B][B]German Import Prices: Monday. The German Import Price Index climbed moderately by 0.1% in January, well below market expectations of a 0.5% increase. A plunge of 0.5% was registered a month earlier. A further rise of 0.2% is forecasted.[/B][/B][*][B][B][B]German Retail Sales: Tuesday. German retail sales edged up 3.1% in January, the fastest monthly rate in more than six years, rebounding from a sharp contraction of 2.1% in December. Economists expected a 1.1% gain. Consumer sentiment supports economists’ forecast that the German economy will expand in the first quarter of 2013. A small rise of 0.4% is predicted this time.[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 8:55. The number of unemployed in Germany fell in February by 3,000, a bit below the 5,000 drop forecasted, following 14,000 decline in the previous month. Likewise unemployment rate remained steady at 6.9%, a touch above the 6.8% that marked its lowest point since the country was reunified in 1990, indicating a strong labor market. Another decline of 2,000 is expected now.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]M3 Money Supply: Thursday, 9:00. The European Central Bank (ECB) reported that M3 Money Supply climbed to 3.5% in January from 3.5% in the previous month, beating expectations for a 3.2% reading. A rise of 3.2% is forecasted.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]French Consumer Spending; Friday, 7:45. French consumer spending declined sharply by 0.8% in January from a 0.2% gain in the previous month. The drop occurred due to a slump of 11.7% in car sales. Analysts expected a mild decline of 0.1%. The weak data indicates the French economy is in a near recession mode with low consumer spending and high unemployment rate. An increase of 0.3% is anticipated now. [/B][/B][/B][/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]*All times are GMT[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]EUR/USD Technical Analysis[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Euro/dollar began the week with a [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-tumbles-on-cyprus-news/"]significant gap lower[/URL]. Even though it breached the 1.2880 (discussed[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-forecast-march-18-22/"]last week[/URL]) line for a few hours, consequent drops didn’t succeed. The pair eventually made a late rally, unable to cross the 1.30 line, in [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-rises-on-hopes-for-a-deal-in-cyprus-sell-opportunity/"]a move that could have been a sell opportunity[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]Technical lines from top to bottom:[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.3588 worked as a clear separator of ranges during January 2013 and proved to work as resistance in February. 1.3486 was the peak seen in February 2012 and is a separator of ranges. An attempt to break higher eventually failed.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.34 was a stubborn cap during the spring of 2012 and continued its stubborn stance in January 2013 – the line now serves as resistance. These are the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-extends-head-shoulders-breakdown-returns-to-the-fall-2012-range/"]head and shoulders lines[/URL]. 1.3350 was a peak in January 2013 and worked very nicely as support during February. The line is weaker now.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Below, 1.3290 served as resistance before the pair collapsed in May, After many failures to break higher, the euro finally pushed through. 1.3255 provided support during January 2013 and also beforehand. A recovery attempt failed to reconquer this line. This is the bottom of the previous range.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.3170, which was the peak of September, served as support for the pair after the break in December and worked as strong resistance after the Italian elections. This is a key line, now on the upside. 1.3130 proved to be strong resistance during December 2012 showed its strength in March 2013 as well.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.3100 is a minor line after working as temporary resistance in December 2012. [B]The very round 1.30[/B] line was a tough line of resistance for the September rally. In addition to being a round number, it also served as strong support. It is becoming stronger.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.2960 provided some support at the beginning of the year and also in September and October – the line is strengthening once again after working as a triple bottom. It remains an important line. Lower, [B]1.2880[/B]worked in both directions during 2012 and was the beginning of the uptrend support line. While it was temporarily breached, the line remains a key on the downside.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Lower, 1.2805 was the bottom border of the wide 1.2805-1.3170 that characterized the pair’s trading for a long time. Below, 1.2746 worked as a separator of ranges during November, and is a minor line on the downside.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]This is followed by the round number of 1.27, which is minor as well. The really important line is the November trough of 1.2660.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Further below, 1.2587 is worth mentioning.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]I turn from neutral to bearish on EUR/USD[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]The crisis in Cyprus [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/ecb-imposes-bailout-deadline-on-cyprus-euro-exit-close/"]could end in Cyprus leaving the euro-zone as the ECB’s deadline looms[/URL]. If we stick to the more optimistic scenario that a solution is found, money could still flood out of the country when banks open, in addition to the confidence crisis after the EU suggested cutting small accounts under 100K that were considered safe. [B]Nothing is safe[/B]. A relief rally on a solution could be limited.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]In addition to the crisis, the economic situation remains weak, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-ifo-slides-eurusd-follows/"]as recent figures have shown[/URL]. [B]This is different from the US[/B], where most economic indicators point to a somewhat [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/more-solid-us-data-philly-index-goes-positive/"]accelerated growth[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]More technical analysis: [B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-analysis-eurusd-bearish-trend-drops-to-50-of-prior-bullish-trend/"]EUR/USD Bearish Trend Drops to 50% of Prior Bullish Trend[/URL] by James Chen.[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]If you have interest in a different way of trading currencies, check out the [URL="http://www.bocrunch.com/category/weekly-binary-options-setups/"]weekly binary options setups[/URL], including EUR/USD and more. Further reading:[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B][B][B]For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/"]USD outlook[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For the Japanese yen, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For GBP/USD (cable), look into the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/"]British Pound forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar forecast[/URL][/B][/B][/B][/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]The euro was on the back foot due to the crisis in Cyprus, but this didn’t turn into a general “risk off” environment and the dollar retreated against most other currencies. Forex dynamics have clearly changed. Important events such as , Ben Bernanke’s speech, US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer confidence and more housing data are among the major market movers this week. Here is an outlook on the coming releases.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]The drama in Cyprus has dominated the news and is still evolving during the weekend. At the time of writing, the Cypriot parliament has passed a series of bills, apart from the delicate bank levy proposal.[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-rises-on-hopes-for-a-deal-in-cyprus-sell-opportunity/"]Taxing bank deposits is a dangerous precedent[/URL]. Another flow of positive US data was released, with existing home sales rising from [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/more-solid-us-data-philly-index-goes-positive/"]4.94 to 5.02 million[/URL]; The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rebounded strongly from -12.5 to plus 2, and jobless claims remained at low levels: 334,000. Will the US economy continue to strengthen in the coming months?[/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]Ben Bernanke speaks[/B]: Monday, 17:15. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak in London with the BOC Governor Mervyn King. Ben Bernanke supports the continuation of the stimulus plan, despite the recent flow of positive data released, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/ben-bernanke-live-blog-3/"]claiming the US economy is still in need of incentives to bolster growth[/URL]. He may further explain his point during this panel discussion.[*][B]US Durable Goods Orders[/B]: Tuesday, 12:30. Durable goods orders excluding transportation surged 1.9% in January, the largest gain since December 2011, following a 1.0% gain in December. The reading was well above economists’ predictions for a 0.2% climb. However orders for durable goods plunged 5.2%, amid a sharp drop in demand for civilian and defense aircraft, a highly volatile category. Nevertheless the market activity seems positive. Core orders are expected to climb further by 0.7%.[*][B]US CB Consumer Confidence[/B]: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence edged up in February to 69.6 from 58.6 in January, exceeding market forecasts for a reading of 60.8. Consumers were relieved after the shock effect caused by the fiscal cliff uncertainty and payroll tax cuts appears. A small drop to 69.3 is forecast this time.[*][B]US New Home Sales[/B]: Tuesday, 14:00. New U.S. single-family home sales soared to their highest level in 4-1/2 years in January while houses supply was the smallest since March 2005, indicating the housing sector recovery is gaining pace. Sales climbed 15.6% to a seasonally adjusted 437,000-unit annual rate, after posting 378,000 in the previous month. A small decline to 426,000 is expected now.[*][B]US Pending Home Sales[/B]: Wednesday, 14:00. Pending home sales rebounded from January’s fall[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/us-pending-home-sales-jump-4-5/"]with a 4.5% rise[/URL], indicating a strong improvement in the housing market. The reading topped predictions for a 1.7% increase. Dwindling housing inventory has helped sellers improve prices, boosting the housing market in the first quarter. A drop of 0.4% is predicted now.[*][B]Canadian GDP[/B]: Thursday, 12:30. Canada’s gross domestic product [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/canadian-gdp-squeezes-by-0-2-in-december-usdcad-sells-the-fact/"]contracted by 0.2% in December from the month earlier[/URL], amid a decline in inventory investment and weak imports. The last quarter posted a small gain of 0.2% as in the previous quarter, missing the BOC’s forecast. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty noted that while he’s confident Canada remains on the right track, risks remain. Canadian economy is expected to register a 0.1% expansion this time.[*][B]US Unemployment claims[/B]: Thursday, 12:30. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/more-solid-us-data-philly-index-goes-positive/"]The US job market has maintained its positive momentum[/URL] last week with fewer than forecast jobless applications reaching 336,000 only 2,000 more than in the preceding week, much lower than the 343,000 projected by analysts. This was a meaningful improvement, consistent with other better employment data. A small rise to 340,000 is expected now.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]*All times are GMT.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further reading:[/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]For EUR/USD, check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to Dollar forecast[/URL].[*]For the Japanese yen, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY forecast[/URL].[*]For GBP/USD (cable), look into the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/"]British Pound forecast[/URL].[*]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[*]For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar[/URL][*][/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]EUR/USD[/URL] remains under pressure in Friday trading, as the Cyprus bailout crisis deepens. Following Cyprus’ rejection of a bailout agreement, the ECB announced on Thursday that it would stop providing financial support to the country’s banks next week, unless a new agreement on a rescue package was reached. There were plenty of releases for the markets to digest on Thursday. In the Eurozone, PMI numbers out of Germany, France and the Eurozone all fell below expectations. The news was better out of the US, as Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index looked sharp. Existing Home Sales improved, but still missed the market estimate. Friday is much quieter, with just two releases, both out of the Eurozone. German Ifo Business Climate was a disappointment, falling below expectations.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Technical[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Asian session: Euro/dollar was quiet, as the pair touched a low of 1.2889 and consolidated at 1.2894. In the European session, the pair has crossed the 1.29 line.[*]Current range: 1.2880 to 1.2960.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further levels in both directions: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-22png.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-22png-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Below: 1.2880, 1.2805, 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.[*]Above: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3170, 1.3255, 1.3290, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3486 and 1.3588.[*][B]1.2960 is the next line of resistance. This is followed by the round number of 1.30.[/B][*][B]1.2880 is providing weak support. 1.2805 is stronger.[/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Euro/dollar under pressure as ECB threatens to cut off Cyprus– click on the graph to enlarge.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Fundamentals[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]9:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Exp. 107.8 points. Actual 106.7 points[/B][*]14:00 Belgium NBB Business Climate. Exp. -10.3 points[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]For more events and lines, see the [I][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to dollar forecast[/URL][/I][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Sentiment[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]ECB lays down ultimatum for Cyprus[/B]: The crisis continues in Cyprus after it rejected a 10 billion euro bailout package from the EU and IMF. Under the agreement, all bank deposits would be taxed, between 6-10%, depending on the size of the bank deposit. Cypriots were outraged, and on Tuesday, parliament voted overwhelmingly against the bailout deal, despite the government’s pleas that rejecting the agreement could lead to a bank collapse. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/cyprus-living-on-the-edge/"]The ECB fired back, and has threatened to stop providing emergency liquidity to Cypriot banks as of Monday, unless an agreement is reached for a new rescue package[/URL]. Without these funds, Cyprus could experience a financial meltdown. Although Cyprus is one of the smallest members of the Eurozone, there is a fear that the bank run which occurred in Cyprus could spread to other members, hence the tough line being taken by the ECB.[*][B]Euro PMIs disappoint: [/B]Thursday’s PMI data out of the Eurozone was a major disappointment. In France, Manufacturing PMI came in at 43.9 points and Services PMI at 41.9, both of which were below expectations. It was the same story with Eurozone PMIs, as the Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6 points and Services PMI at 46.5. German Manufacturing PMI, a key indicator, dropped below the 50-point level to 48.9 points, indicating contraction. German Services PMI managed to stay above the 50-point threshold at 51.6 points, but this was well below the estimate of 54.9 points. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-eurusd-falls/"]These weak numbers point to continued stagnation in the Eurozone, but what is especially worrying is the German data, which points to trouble in the Eurozone’s largest economy[/URL]. The euro took a hit after the releases and dipped below the 1.29 line, but has partially recovered from these losses and is back above 1.29.[*][B]Federal Reserve stands pat:[/B] Bernard Bernanke had no tricks up his sleeve as the US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and the current round of asset purchases. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=41907&action=edit"]The benchmark interest rate remains at 0%-0.25%, and the Fed will continue to purchase $85 billion in assets each month.[/URL] There had been speculation that the Fed might modify its monetary policy as the economy as shown signs of improvement and unemployment has dipped lower. However, Bernanke stated that the labor market was still weak and also noted concern about recent tax increases and federal spending cuts.[*][B]US posts solid numbers: [/B]The markets were busy digesting Thursday’s key US releases. Unemployment Claims were up slightly to 336 thousand, but beat the estimate of 343 thousand. This marked the fourth straight week that the key employment indicator has been below expectations. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/more-solid-us-data-philly-index-goes-positive/"]There was good news as well from the manufacturing sector, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 2.0 points, beating the estimate of -1.6 points[/URL]. Existing Home Sales rose slightly from the February reading to 4.98 million. but fell short of the estimate of 5.02 million. Overall, the numbers were solid and reinforce the sentiment that the US recovery is deepening.[/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]EUR/USD[/URL] has lost ground and is showing volatility in Thursday’s European session, following the release of weak PMI numbers out of the Eurozone, Germany and France. The euro is also under pressure as Cyprus rejected a bailout package which included a contentious bank tax. In the US, the Federal Reserve said it would continue its current round of QE. On Thursday, Spain holds an auction for 10-year bonds. In the US, it will be a busy day as there are three key releases – Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Technical[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady. The pair touched a high of 1.2955 and consolidated at 1.2937. In the European session, the pair has edged lower, and was testing the 1.29 line.[*]Current range: 1.2880 to 1.2960.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further levels in both directions: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-21png.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-21png-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Below: 1.2880, 1.2805, 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.[*]Above: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3170, 1.3255, 1.3290, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3486 and 1.3588.[*][B]1.2960 is the next line of resistance. 1.3000 stronger.[/B][*][B]1.2880 is under pressure as the pair weakens. 1.2805 is the next support level.[/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Euro/dollar falls after weak PMIs from Germany and France– click on the graph to enlarge.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Fundamentals[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]8:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 44.4 points. Actual 43.9 points[/B][*]8:00 French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 44.1 points. Actual 41.9 points[*][B]8:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 50.8 points. Actual 48.9 points[/B][*]8:30 German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 54.9 points. Actual 51.6 points[*]9:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 48.2 points. Actual 46.6 points[*]9:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Exp. 48.2 points. Actual 46.5 points[*][B]Tentative: Spanish 10-year Bond Auction[/B][*][B]12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 343K[/B][*]13:00 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55.1 points[*]13:00 US HPI. Exp. 0.7%[*][B]14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Exp. 5.02M[/B][*][B]14:00 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Exp. -1.6 points[/B][*]14:00 US CB Leading Index. Exp. 0.3%[*]14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. -70B[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]For more events and lines, see the [I][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to dollar forecast[/URL][/I][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Sentiment[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]Euro PMIs disappoint: [/B]Thursday’s PMI data out of the Eurozone was a major disappointment. In France, Manufacturing PMI came in at 43.9 points and Services PMI at 41.9, both of which were below expectations. It was the same story with Eurozone PMIs, as the Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6 points and Services PMI at 46.5. German Manufacturing PMI, a key indicator, dropped below the 50-point level to 48.9 points, indicating contraction. German Services PMI managed to stay above the 50-point threshold at 51.6 points, but this was well below the estimate of 54.9 points. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-eurusd-falls/"]These weak numbers point to continued stagnation in the Eurozone, but what is especially worrying is the German data, which points to trouble in the Eurozone’s largest economy[/URL]. The euro took a hit after the releases and dipped below the 1.29 line, but has partially recovered from these losses and is back above 1.29.[*][B]Cypriot Parliament votes no to bailout: [/B]The small island of Cyprus continues to be in the financial headlines. What was supposed to be a straightforward 10 billion euro rescue package has turned into a full-blown financial crisis. The reason was a controversial provision in the agreement, which sent the currency markets spinning early in the week. Under the terms of the bailout package, deposit holders in Cypriot banks would be levied with a one-time tax, between 6.7% and 9.9%, depending on the size of the deposit. This tax was intended to raise 5.8 billion euros, which would be a condition for Cyprus receiving the bailout funds. Cypriots were understandably in an uproar, and on Tuesday the Cypriot parliament voted overwhelmingly against the bailout deal, despite the government’s pleas that rejecting the agreement could lead to a bank collapse. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was ready to work with Cyprus to find a solution, and officials from the EU and IMF, who are the creditors behind the bailout, are in Cyprus for talks with the Cypriot government to discuss ways of making the bailout deal more palatable.[*][B]Federal Reserve stands pat:[/B] Bernard Bernanke had no tricks up his sleeve as the US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and the current round of asset purchases. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=41907&action=edit"]The benchmark interest rate remains at 0%-0.25%, and the Fed will continue to purchase $85 billion in assets each month.[/URL] There had been speculation that the Fed might modify its monetary policy as the economy as shown signs of improvement and unemployment has dipped lower. However, Bernanke stated that the labor market was still weak and also noted concern about recent tax increases and federal spending cuts.[*][B]US numbers a mix (again): [/B]US data continues to be a mixed bag of good and bad.Tuesday’s housing numbers looked good, as Building Permits hit a multi-year high, and Housing Starts matched expectations. Last week was yet another example of the mix we are seeing in US data, making it difficult to assess how strong the recovery is. Employment and retail sales data looked sharp, but Friday was a different story. UoM Consumer Sentiment fell well below expectations. and the Empire State Manufacturing Index also missed the estimate. The markets will be hoping for positive news on Thursday, as the US releases key employment, housing and manufacturing data.[/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]EUR/USD[/URL] remains under pressure as the Cyprus bailout crisis deepens. The Cypriot parliament met in an emergency session on Tuesday and voted overwhelmingly to reject the conditions for a EUR10 billion bailout, which includes a controversial tax on all bank deposits in Cypriot banks. Looking at economic news, German ZEW Economic Sentiment sparkled, while Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment slumped badly. In the US, Building Permits posted its best performance since 2008. Wednesday brought more mixed data from the Eurozone, as German PPI declined, while Eurozone Current Account easily beat the estimate. In the US, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which holds a policy meeting later today and will release a Monetary Policy Statement. [/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Technical[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Asian session: Euro/dollar edged higher, and crossed above 1.29 late in the session. The pair consolidated at 1.2899. In the European session, the pair has edged higher.[*]Current range: 1.2880 to 1.2960.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further levels in both directions: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-20png.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EUR-USD-Daily-Forecast-Mar-20png-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]Below: 1.2880, 1.2805, 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.[*]Above: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3170, 1.3255, 1.3290, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3486 and 1.3588.[*][B]1.2960 is the next line of resistance. 1.3000 stronger.[/B][*][B]1.2880 is providing support level. This is followed by 1.2805.[/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Euro/dollar s as Cyprus crisis continues to weigh on markets – click on the graph to enlarge.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Fundamentals[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]7:00 German PPI. Exp. 0.2%. Actual -0.1%[*]9:00 Eurozone Current Account. Exp. 7.9B. Actual 14.8B[*]Tentative: German 10-year Bond Auction[*]14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 1.8M[*]15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Exp. -23 points[*][B]18:00 US FOMC Economic Projections[/B][*][B]18:00 US FOMC Statement[/B][*]18:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Exp. ,0.25%[*][B]18:30 US FOMC Press Conference[/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]For more events and lines, see the [I][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to dollar forecast[/URL][/I][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD Sentiment[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B]Cypriot Parliament votes no to bailout: [/B]The small island of Cyprus is not used to being in financial headlines, but finds itself in the international spotlight this week. Over the weekend, a bailout agreement was reached over the weekend between the EU, IMF and the Cypriot government in the amount of 10 billion euros. However, a controversial provision in the agreement has sent the currency markets spinning. Under the terms of the bailout package, deposit holders in Cypriot banks would be levied with a one-time tax, between 6.7% and 9.9%, depending on the size of the deposit. This tax is intended to raise 5.8 billion euros, which would be a condition to receiving the 10 billion euro bailout. . Cypriots were understandably in an uproar, as this marked the first time in the Eurozone debt crisis that bank depositors were being asked to take a haircut as part of a bailout. There was a run on bank machines, as Cypriot banks were closed for a holiday. Taxing bank deposits is unusual, and [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-tumbles-on-cyprus-news/"]there is a fear that other debt-ridden countries, such as Spain, could face bank runs as well[/URL]. On Tuesday, the Cypriot parliament voted overwhelmingly against the bailout deal, despite the government’s pleas that rejecting the agreement could lead to a bank collapse. In an attempt to contain the crisis, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/what-next/"]Eurozone finance ministers are likely to meet today to discuss the options for Cyprus following the nay vote in parliament. [/URL][*][B]US numbers a mix (again): [/B]US data continues to be a mixed bag of good and bad.Tuesday’s housing numbers looked good, as Building Permits hit a multi-year high, and Housing Starts matched expectations. Last week was yet another example of the mix we are seeing in US data, making it difficult to assess how strong the recovery is. Employment and retail sales data looked sharp, but Friday was a different story. UoM Consumer Sentiment fell well below expectations. and the Empire State Manufacturing Index also missed the estimate. The US Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday for a policy meeting, and it will be interesting to see it’s take on the health of the US economy.[*][B]Italian Political Stalemate Continues: [/B]The political stalemate which has paralyzed Italy for several weeks continues. Even by Italian standards, the political puzzle is bewildering, and the only solution may mean yet another election. Most Italians oppose going back to the polls, but so far, the political leaders have not made any headway as far as forming a new government. Italian President Giorgio Napolitano has asked Prime Minister Mario Monti to stay on until the political crisis subsides. The financial markets are increasingly concerned that the ongoing political impasse will lead to an economic crisis in the Eurozone’s third largest economy. Last week, Italy’s three-year borrowing costs rose to their highest level since December. This comes on the heels of a recent credit downgrade to Italy’s debt by the Fitch rating agency.There is increasing concern that a prolonged political vacuum will lead to an full-blown economic crisis in the Eurozone’s third largest economy.[*][B]Markets wait for Federal Reserve announcement:[/B] The Federal Reserve meets for a policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates, but the markets will be anxiously awaiting what the Fed decides to do regarding the current round of QE. With the US recovery looking stronger and unemployment nudging lower, there has been speculation that the Federal Reserve might wind down or modify its asset purchasing program. However, Fed head Bernard Bernanke and other senior officials have said QE will continue as is. If the Fed surprises the markets, we can expect a reaction from EUR/USD.[/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]The British pound finally turned things around last week, climbing around two cents against the US dollar. The pair closed at 1.5114. This week’s highlights include CPI and Claimant Count Change.[/B][B]Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]British data was nothing to write home about, as housing and manufacturing numbers fell below expectations. However, the pound took advantage of weak manufacturing and consumer confidence numbers in the US, and enjoyed its best weekly rally so far in 2013.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/GBP-USD-Forecast-Mar-18-22.png"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/GBP-USD-Forecast-Mar-18-22-350x196.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]Rightmove HPI: [/B]Monday, 00:01. This housing inflation index has been erratic, but posted a sharp gain of 2.8% in the previous reading. The markets will be hoping for another strong showing in the March release.[*][B]CPI: [/B]Tuesday, 9:30. This key consumer inflation index has been steady as a rock, as the past four readings have all posted a 2.7% gain. The estimate for the March reading stands at 2.8%.[*][B]PPI Input: [/B]Tuesday, 9:30.The Producer Price Input is a key release and a potential market-mover. The index climbed a robust 1.3% in February, beating the forecast of 0.9%. The markets are expecting another strong release for March, with the estimate standing at 1.6%.[*][B]RPI: [/B]Tuesday, 9:30. The Retail Price Index includes housing costs, in contrast to CPI. The February reading came in at 3.3%, and the estimate is identical for the upcoming release.[*][B]Claimant Count Change[B]: [/B][/B]Wednesday, 9:30. One of the most important economic indicators, Claimant Count Change can affect the direction of GBP/USD and is closely monitored by the markets. The indicator has posted declines in the past three releases, easily beating the forecast each time. The previous reading was very excellent, at -12.5 thousand. The estimate for March calls for another decline, albeit a smaller one, at -5.2 thousand. The Unemployment Rate is expected to inch up from 7.7%. to 7.8%.[*][B]MPC Meeting Minutes: [/B]Wednesday, 9:30. MPC Meeting Minutes is another key indicator which is keenly awaited by market analysts. The detailed record of the MPC’s most recent policy meeting includes the votes on the interest rate and asset purchase decisions by the BOE.[*][B]Annual Budget Release: [/B]Wednesday, 12:30. The Budget Release lays out the UK government’s budget for this year, and details anticipated spending, income and borrowing levels. These all have a major impact on the economy, and the budget can affect the movement of GBP/USD, depending on the market reaction to the budget.[*][B]Retail Sales: [/B]Thursday, 9:30. Retail Sales has declined for two straight months, underscoring weak consumer spending. The markets are expecting a turnaround in March, with an estimate of a 0.5% gain.[*][B]Public Sector Net Borrowing: [/B]Thursday, 9:30. Public Sector Net Borrowing posted a rare surplus in February, but nonetheless fell short of the estimate. The markets are expecting a deficit in the upcoming release, with an estimate at 8.4 billion pounds.[*][B]CBI Industrial Order Expectations: [/B]Thursday, 11:00. This important manufacturing indicator has been mired deep in negative territory. The indicator improved last month, but posted a weak reading of -14 points. The estimate for the March release is -16 points.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]GBP/USD Technical Analysis[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]GBP/USD opened the week at 1.4907. The pair fell as low as 1.4831, but roared back, touching a high of 1.5177, as the resistance line of 1.5189 (discussed last week) remained intact. GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5114.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]Technical[/B] [B]lines from top to bottom:[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]With the pound losing more ground last week, we begin at lower levels. There is resistance at 1.5567. This line last saw activity in mid-February. This is followed by resistance at 1.5484. Next, there is resistance at 1.5406. This line had served in a support role since July 2012, before reverting to resistance line in mid-February. Next, there is resistance is at 1.5282. This is followed by 1.5189, which was briefly breached as the pound showed flexed some muscle early in the week.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]GBP/USD is receiving support at 1.5061. Next is 1.5010, protecting the all important 1.50 level. We next encounter support at 1.4896, just below the round number of 1.49. The pair broke through this line early in the week, but it remains intact. Below is 1.4765, which has remained intact since June 2010. This is followed by support at 1.4665. Next is support at 1.4540. The final support line for now is at 1.4374, which has held firm since June 2010.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]I remain bearish on GBP/USD.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]The pound had an excellent week, but the trend in 2013 has been almost all downwards. The UK economy continues to sputter, in contrast to the US, which has posted some solid numbers of late. This has resulted in the dollar putting more pressure on the pound. Given the sharp contrast in the prospects for the two economies, the pound will have a tough time making more gains against the dollar.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further reading:[/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/"]USD outlook[/URL].[*]For EUR/USD, check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to Dollar forecast[/URL].[*]For the Japanese yen, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY forecast[/URL].[*]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[*]For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar forecast[/URL].[/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY[/URL] was on a roll, finally taking out the 95 line and reaching levels last seen in August 2009. Will we see a continued march towards 100 or a period of consolidation now? Core Machinery Orders , BSI Manufacturing Index and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are the highlights of this week. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Both houses of the Japanese parliament approved the appointment of Haruhiko Kuroda and two other BOJ members. They will start working this week, and there is speculation that they will make an emergency decision. Can they provide an extra boost for the yen?[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]USD/JPY daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/?attachment_id=41788"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/USDJPY-Technical-Analysis-for-forex-trading-March-18-22-2013-350x186.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]Trade Balance[/B]: Wednesday, 23:50. Japan hasn’t seen a trade deficit surplus for around 2 years, since the catastrophic earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. This is also contributing to a weaker yen. After reporting a deficit of 0.68 trillion yen last month, the deficit is expected to 1.01 trillion this time.[*][B]All Industries Activity[/B]: Thursday, 4:30. This relatively late indicator has shown a strong rise of 1.8%. The figure is predicted to drop by 1.1% for the month of January.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]*All times are GMT.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]USD/JPY Technical Analysis[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]$/¥ began with the week with a new surge, reaching a peak of 96.71, a line that didn’t appear [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/usdjpy-outlook-march-11-15/"]last week[/URL]. A drop was followed by another surge, that reached a lower peak. Finally, the pair dropped towards 95 and closed at 95.27.
[B]Technical lines from top to bottom[/B]
Looking above 100, we find the 101.44 line, which was the post crisis high seen in April 2009. The obvious number below is the very round number of 100.
98.90 capped the pair in June 2009 and serves as minor resistance. A stronger line is the 97.80 line, which was a peak back in 2009. The new 2013 peak of 96.71 is the next line..
95.88 now serves as a pivotal line within the new high range. The round number of 95 was breached, and now works as support.
The previous February 2013 peak of 94.40 should be noted. A second move towards that line in February fell short, but the pair made it in March.
93.84 was an initial peak for the pair as it climbed higher and has served as a cap afterwards. 92.95 was an earlier resistance line, and later served as support.
92.12 was a peak in the past, and provides some support, as seen in February 2013. The line is weaker now. 91.20, which capped the pair very temporarily on its way up in January 2013, is a support line and is now stronger.
The ultimate support line for now is 90 – a target marked by many analysts and a round number. This line remains close after the break. Just below, 89.67 capped the pair for several days in January 2013 and is now minor support.
Below, 89.10 was a peak in the summer of 2010, before the pair began descending and is now support. 88.40 is the peak of January 2013 and is a strong support line.
Another recent technical view: [B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-analysis-usdjpy-hits-new-long-term-high-for-potential-uptrend-continuation/"]USD/JPY Hits New Long-Term High for Potential Uptrend Continuation[/URL] - [/B][B]by James Chen[/B]
[B]I remain bullish on USD/JPY[/B]
After the recent correction, the yen can continue declining. While [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/fomc-unlikely-to-change-policy-but-statement-could-be-upbeat/"]the Fed is not expected to hint any tightening[/URL], thus weakening the greenback, the new BOJ governor could start his tenure with dramatic declarations, and push the pair higher, at least within the range.
Another technical analysis: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-now-underway-to-98-00-elliott-wave-analysis/"]USD/JPY Now Underway To 98.00 (Elliott Wave Analysis)[/URL]
Further reading:

[LIST][*]For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/"]USD outlook[/URL].[*]For EUR/USD, check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to Dollar forecast[/URL].[*]For GBP/USD (cable), look into the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/"]British Pound forecast[/URL].[*]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[*]For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar forecast[/URL][/LIST]

[/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]EUR/USD[/URL] had a yo-yo week, finally breaking the triple bottom but eventually emerging as a winner. Has the single currency turned a corner, or is it a correction before the next fall? Key German surveys and PMIs are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers ahead.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]Last week [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-march-13-under-pressure-as-ecb-official-hints-at-rate-cut/"]a senior member of the ECB hinted that an interest rate cut could be in the cards[/URL] or risk a deeper recession. The Italian elections and the persistent contraction in other EU economies such as Spain and France might compel the ECB to act. In the US, more encouraging data has been reported: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-loses-triple-bottom-after-strong-us-retail-sales/"]retail sales[/URL] and [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/us-data-just-keeps-getting-better/"]jobless claims[/URL] came out better than expected. However, this is probably not enough for Bernanke to act. Let’s Start[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/?attachment_id=41785"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EURUSD-Technical-analysis-for-forex-trading-March-18-22-2013-350x186.png[/IMG][/URL][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B][B]Italian Trade Balance: Monday, 9:00. Italian Trade surplus narrowed to a seasonally adjusted 2.16B, from 2.36B in the preceding month, a bit lower than the 2.22B forecast by analysts. A further contraction to 2.11B is expected now.[/B][/B][*][B][B][B]Trade Balance: Monday, 10:00. The euro zone increased its trade surplus in December to 11.7 billion euros, from 10.5 billion in registered in November. The reading was better than the 10.07 billion surplus projected by analysts. The trade surplus of Europe’s largest exporter, Germany, edged up in the first 11 months of 2012 to almost 175 billion euros from 145 billion a year earlier. But the biggest improvement was in Italy, which soared to a 9 billion euro surplus in the first 11 months of 2012 from a deficit of almost 27 billion euros a year earlier. A decline to 3.4 billion is forecasted this time.[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Italian Industrial Production: Tuesday, 9:00. Italian industrial output increased more than forecast in December, rising 0.4% after a 1.1% drop in November. The reading beat predictions of a 0.2% climb. The Italian government and the central bank forecast a return to economic growth in the second half of 2013 amid a rise in export. A drop of 0.3% is forecasted.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German analysts’ sentiment brightened in February amid predictions of recovery in the Eurozone. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-zew-economic-sentiment-leaps-eurusd-follows/"]The index rose to 48.2 compared[/URL] to 31.5 registered in January. The reading was well above predictions of 35.3 points. German economy is expected to continue its growth avoiding headwinds from the other Eurozone partners. A small decline to 47.9 is expected. The all-European figure is expected to rise from 42.4 to 43.7 points.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]German PPI: Wednesday, 7:00. The German producer price index (PPI) edged up 0.8% in January, from a revised decline of 0.3% in December, higher than the 0.4% predicted by analysts. On a yearly base, PPI growth gained 1.7%, from 1.5% in the year ending December, beating analysts` median estimate of 1.2%. A smaller gain of 0.2% is forecasted.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Current Account: Wednesday, 9:00. Current account surplus narrowed slightly in December reaching 13.9 billion, following 15.9 billion in the previous month. The reading was lower than the 15.3 billion projected by analysts yet, the block’s trade surplus continued indicates the region is exporting more goods than it imports, which should boost the Economy. A further contraction to 7.9 billion is expected this time.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 15:00. The euro zone consumer sentiment improved slightly reaching -23.6, up from -23.9 in January, while analysts expected the index to advance to -23. This reading indicates that the Eurozone’s debt crisis continues to affect household spending but improvements are underway. Another improvement to -23 is forecasted.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Flash PMIs: Thursday: beings at 8:00 in France, continues in Germany at 8:30 and ends for the whole euro-zone at 9:00. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-feb-21-tumbles-after-fed-minutes-weak-pmis/"]Generally weak PMIs were registered in February[/URL], despite the optimism among analysts. The French PMI Services report declined to 42.7 (versus 44.5 expected) and reached a fresh 48-month low. French PMI Manufacturing got better with a 43.6 point reading, from 42.9 in the previous month, but lower than the 43.9 forecast. In Germany, the PMI Manufacturing report showed an increase to 50.1 following 49.8 in the previous month, but again weaker than the 50.4 expected. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI disappointed with a 47.8 reading vs. 48.9 in January, while economists expected the index to improve to 48.4 and services plunged to 47.3 from 49.2 expected. Both figures remained below the 50 point line, indicating contraction. The expected readings are as followed: French Manufacturing – 44.4, Services – 44.1, German Manufacturing – 50.8, Services – 54.9, Eurozone Manufacturing – 48.2, Services 48.2.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 9:00. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-ifo-business-climate-jumps-eurusd-rises/"]The German business sentiment surged to 107.4[/URL] in February, from 104.3 in the prior month, posting its strongest monthly rise since July 2010.This sharp rise suggests that German economy is forecasted to rebound strongly from the weak closure of 2012. February’s figure beat predictions for a 104.9 reading. Another improvement to 107.8 is expected now.[/B][/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Belgium NBB Business Climate: Friday, 14:00. Belgian business confidence improved moderately by 2.2 points to -11in February, following nearly a year of contractions, indicating a possible rebound trend. Belgium’s economy exports a large number of semi-finished goods to the Germany. The improvement in Germany may bring growth to Belgium’s economy. Another climb to -10.3 is expected now.[/B][/B][/B][/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]*All times are GMT[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]EUR/USD Technical Analysis[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Euro/dollar started the week with a gradual ascent, but it then fell, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-loses-triple-bottom-after-strong-us-retail-sales/"]breaking the triple bottom[/URL]. From the lows of 1.2910, the pair managed to recover quickly, challenging the 1.31 line (mentioned [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-forecast-march-11-15/"]last week[/URL]) before closing at 1.3076.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]Technical lines from top to bottom:[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.3588 worked as a clear separator of ranges during January 2013 and proved to work as resistance in February. 1.3486 was the peak seen in February 2012 and is a separator of ranges. An attempt to break higher eventually failed.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.34 was a stubborn cap during the spring of 2012 and continued its stubborn stance in January 2013 – the line now serves as resistance. These are the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-extends-head-shoulders-breakdown-returns-to-the-fall-2012-range/"]head and shoulders lines[/URL]. 1.3350 was a peak in January 2013 and worked very nicely as support during February. The line is weaker now.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Below, 1.3290 served as resistance before the pair collapsed in May, After many failures to break higher, the euro finally pushed through. 1.3255 provided support during January 2013 and also beforehand. A recovery attempt failed to reconquer this line. This is the bottom of the previous range.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]1.3170[/B], which was the peak of September, served as support for the pair after the break in December and worked as strong resistance after the Italian elections. This is a key line, now on the upside. 1.3130 proved to be strong resistance during December 2012 showed its strength in March 2013 as well.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.3100 is a minor line after working as temporary resistance in December 2012. The very round 1.30 line was a tough line of resistance for the September rally. In addition to being a round number, it also served as strong support. However, the recent battles weakened it, and now makes the next line very important.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]1.2960[/B] provided some support at the beginning of the year and also in September and October – the line is strengthening once again after working as a triple bottom. This is the key on the downside.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Lower, 1.2880 worked in both directions during 2012 and was the beginning of the uptrend support line. Lower, 1.2805 was the bottom border of the wide 1.2805-1.3170 that characterized the pair’s trading for a long time.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Below, 1.2746 worked as a separator of ranges during November, and is a minor line on the downside. This is followed by the round number of 1.27, which is minor as well. The really important line is the November trough of 1.2660.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Further below, 1.2587 is worth mentioning.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]I am neutral on EUR/USD[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]The general direction remains down: the EU economies are struggling, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-crashing-on-higher-unemployment-lower-inflation/"]unemployment is rising and inflation is falling[/URL]. In the United States, economic indicators show signs of a [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/non-farm-payrolls-236k-in-february/"]somewhat accelerated recovery[/URL]. Nevertheless, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/fomc-unlikely-to-change-policy-but-statement-could-be-upbeat/"]the Federal Reserve is likely to leave policy unchanged[/URL], weighing on the dollar. The Fed decision and the very busy European calendar promise exciter.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]More technical analysis: [B][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-analysis-eurusd-confirming-continuation-of-new-bearish-trend/"]EUR/USD Confirming Continuation of New Bearish Trend[/URL] [/B][B]- by James Chen.[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]If you have interest in a different way of trading currencies, check out the [URL="http://www.bocrunch.com/category/weekly-binary-options-setups/"]weekly binary options setups[/URL], including EUR/USD and more. Further reading:[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B][B][B]For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/"]USD outlook[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For the Japanese yen, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For GBP/USD (cable), look into the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/"]British Pound forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar forecast[/URL][/B][/B][/B][*][/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]The [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar[/URL] continued the momentum and recovered a lot of ground. Retail sales and Foreign Securities Purchases are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]The loonie enjoyed a retracement of the US dollar after five consecutive weeks, and also the echoes of the superb jobs report from the previous Friday. Could we see a challenge of parity this month?[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/?attachment_id=41784"][IMG]http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/USDCAD-Technical-Analysis-for-currency-trading-March-18-22-2013-350x186.png[/IMG][/URL][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]Foreign Securities Purchases: Monday, 12:30. Non-residents decreased their holdings of Canadian securities by $1.9 billion in December, amid large retirements of bonds and equities. The reading was contrary to predictions for a 7.21 billion. Meanwhile, Canadian investment in foreign equities edged up to $2.5 billion in December, almost exclusively in a well-diversified basket of US shares. Foreign purchase are expected to reach $7.85 billion.[/B][*][B][B]Manufacturing Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Canadian manufacturing sector ended 2012 with a negative release, registering 3.1% contraction, after a 1.8% gain in the previous month, indicating sluggish activity in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP]quarter. Lower demand from the US together with a strong Canadian dollar were the main reasons for this decline. Economists expected a mild decline of 0.4% for that month. A gain of 0.5% is expected this time.[/B][/B][*][B][B][B]Wholesale Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Canadian wholesale trade contracted more than expected in December, falling 0.9% after a 0.7% gain in November. The drop was larger than the 0.4% fall predicted by analysts, indicating that Canadian economy contracted in December. The central bank admitted its growth forecast was too optimistic. A gain of 0.4% is predicted.[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B][B]Retail sales: Thursday, 12:30. Canadian retail sales dropped sharply in December, well below market predictions, amid weak reports from auto dealers. Retail sales plunged 2.1% to 38.62 billion Canadian dollars, the biggest decline since April 2010. The reading was also much lower than the 0.35 drop expected by economists. Excluding the automobile sector, retail sales weakened by 0.9%. In December, lower sales volume was reported in seven of the 11 sectors measured. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.6, while core retail sales are predicted to gain 0.4%.[/B][/B][/B][/B][/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]* All times are GMT.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]USD/CAD Technical Analysis[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]$/CAD started the week trading in a range between 1.0250 and 1.03. Late in the week, the pair made a convincing breakdown and even managed to close below 1.02.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]Technical lines, from top to bottom:[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.0750 was the peak of ranges several times in the past few years, and is a very important line. 1.0660 was last seen in September 2011, but this line was also a long running swing high several times beforehand.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011 and is minor resistance. 1.0446 was the peak that the pair recorded in June 2012 and is a key line on the upside.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.0340 was the peak during March 2013 and its position strengthens at the moment. The round number of 1.03 was resistance at the beginning of the year and now returns to this role. It worked perfectly well during June – over and over again, until finally being run through.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]1.0250 was a peak before the pair moved below parity a long time ago, and worked as support quite well in March 2013. 1.02 was the trough of 2009 and remains important since then, working in both directions. These are the key lines for now.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]Another round number, 1.01, was a trough back in July, and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013. 1.0066 was key support before parity. It’s strength during July 2012 was clearly seen and it gave a fight before surrendering. It has a stronger role after capping the pair during November 2012, but has begun weakening.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and the battle was very clear to see at the beginning of August 2012 and also in 2013. It is a clear separator. 0.9950 provided some support for the pair during November and worked as resistance earlier.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]0.9910 remains the chart after serving as a bottom border for the pair in November 2012. It already managed to work as weak resistance in December 2012. 0.9880 showed that it is a clear separator in October 2012. It also had a role in the past. This line switches roles once again.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]0.9817 was a stubborn peak in September and is now significant support. As seen in December 2012, this line worked as a cushion. It worked very nicely in January 2013. Lower, 0.9725 worked as strong support back at the fall of 2011 and showed its strength once again in October 2012..[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B][B]I am bearish on USD/CAD.[/B][/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B]The Canadian dollar is likely to ride on the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/canada-enjoys-50-7k-job-gains-superb-outcome/"]excellent jobs report[/URL] despite the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/canadian-dollar-falls-on-another-dovish-boc-statement/"]dovishness of the BOC[/URL]. The reason is that the Fed is likely to weigh on the dollar and not provide any talk about an exit strategy to QE – per[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/fomc-unlikely-to-change-policy-but-statement-could-be-upbeat/"]haps only some very cautious optimism[/URL]. The general direction for USD/CAD remains higher, but the pair could drop this week.[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B][B][B] Further reading:[/B][/B][/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*][B][B][B]For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/"]USD outlook[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For EUR/USD, check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to Dollar forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For the Japanese yen, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For GBP/USD (cable), look into the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/"]British Pound forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][B][B][B]USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar[/URL].[/B][/B][/B][*][/LIST]

[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][B]The US dollar rally took a break after long weeks of advances. What’s next for the greenback? Ben Bernanke holds the key to the next moves. The rate decision and accompanying press conference are the highlights of this week, as well as US housing and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers awaiting us.[/B][/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial][URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/us-data-just-keeps-getting-better/"]The US posted some solid economic releases[/URL] with strong retail sales and more signs of labor market growth: a 5 year low of 332,000 unemployment claims, raised speculations that the FED might shorten its open-ended QE in the coming months. Will the US economy prove it has no need for additional monetary easing? Let’s Start[/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST=1][*][B]UK inflation data[/B]: Tuesday, 9:30. Britain’s consumer price inflation was maintained at 2.7% for the fourth consecutive month, its highest level since May amid 8.5% increase in the prices of alcohol and tobacco. The Bank of England warned that inflation might stay above its 2% target for the next two years. A rise to 2.8% is expected this time.[*][B]German ZEW Economic Sentiment[/B], Tuesday, 10:00. German investor and analyst sentiment [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-zew-economic-sentiment-leaps-eurusd-follows/"]soared in February posting a reading of 48.2[/URL] from 31.5 in January, amid fresh optimism regarding the ending of the euro zone debt crisis. German economy has shown resilience to the global economic downturn in the last few months avoiding the wide spread recession in the EU area. Steady private consumption and growing exports have boosted growth in the German economy. A small decline to 47.9 is forecast.[*][B]US Building Permits[/B]: Tuesday, 12:30. Privately-owned housing permits issued in January [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/us-housing-remains-strong-adds-to-optimistic-market-mood/"]climbed to an annual rate of 925,000[/URL], from a revised reading of 909,000 permits in December. This continuous rise indicates builders are confident in the market, another good indicator for recovery. A further improvement to 930,000 is predicted.[*][B]US rate decision and press conference[/B]: Wednesday, 16:30, followed by FOMC economic projections at 18:00 and Ben Bernanke’s press conference from 18:15. After [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/fed-makes-no-big-change-in-policy/"]stating that the economy has “paused” [/URL] and making absolutely no change to policy, The FOMC is unlikely to change nor hint a change in policy in the upcoming meeting. At 7.7%, [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/non-farm-payrolls-236k-in-february/"]the unemployment rate is the best post crisis figure[/URL], but still far from the 6.5% goal that the Fed stated for changing the interest rate. The [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/hawks-rediscovered-in-the-fomc-dollar-surges-overreaction/"]meeting minutes revealed some hawkish views[/URL], but the hawks are still a minority. Doves led by Bernanke still command a majority. The Fed could note the improvement in jobs and perhaps say that the economy returned to growth after a pause in Q4, but the overall picture isn’t likely to change. This outcome will probably lead to some minor dollar selling – an opportunity to take dollar profits after the recent rally. Any unexpected hint about stopping or reducing the open-ended bond buys will send the dollar sharply higher across the board. More analysis: [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/fomc-unlikely-to-change-policy-but-statement-could-be-upbeat/"]FOMC unlikely to change policy, but statement could be upbeat[/URL][*][B]NZ GDP[/B]: Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand’s gross domestic product gained 0.2% in the third quarter of 2012 following 0.3% expansion in the second quarter. Forecasts were 0.1% higher for this quarter. Construction was up 4.5% while Manufacturing was down 1.1%. New Zealand economy is expected to expand by 0.9%. [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/nzdusd-falling-on-dovish-rate-decision/"]The kiwi is on the back foot after a dovish rate statement[/URL].[*][B]US Unemployment Claims[/B]: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/us-data-just-keeps-getting-better/"]dropped sharply last week[/URL] to 332,000 from 342,000 in the previous week. This is further evidence that the labor market is recovering. Analysts expected applications to rise to 348,000. The continuous improvement in job gains pushes up wages, strengthening consumer spending. A rise to 343,000 is predicted now.[*][B]US Existing Home Sales[/B]: Thursday, 14:00. U.S. existing home sales [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/dollar-rally-loses-steam-as-reality-bites/"]edged up in January[/URL] to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million units, following 4.9 million-unit in December. The reading beat market forecasts for a 4.9 million-unit rate. The climb in sales left the supply of homes at its lowest level in 13 years. Another climb to 5.03 million is expected this time.[*][B]US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index[/B]: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area plunged to minus 12.5 in February, a temporary setback amid uncertainty among manufacturers regarding unresolved fiscal policy negotiations and the January increase in payroll taxes. Economists expected a 1.1 reading this month. However the general notion indicates that growth would pick up this year. An improvement to -3.1 is forecasted.[*][B]German Ifo Business Climate[/B]: Friday, 9:00. German February Business Confidence edged up to a[URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/german-ifo-business-climate-jumps-eurusd-rises/"]10-month high[/URL] of 107.4 in February, after posting a 104.3 reading in January. Economists expected a minor improvement to 104.9. This is another indication that Germany’s economy is gathering strength. A further improvement to 107.8 is forecast.[/LIST]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]*All times are GMT.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#444444][FONT=Arial]Further reading:[/FONT][/COLOR]

[LIST][*]For EUR/USD, check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/"]Euro to Dollar forecast[/URL].[*]For the Japanese yen, read the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-jpy-forecast/"]USD/JPY forecast[/URL].[*]For GBP/USD (cable), look into the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/"]British Pound forecast[/URL].[*]For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/aud-usd-outlook/"]AUD to USD forecast[/URL].[*]For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the [URL="http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/usd-cad-outlook/"]Canadian dollar[/URL][*][/LIST]