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10-01-2009, 11:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mekosmowski
My stop loss was at 0.9416[8] and the low today was 0.9422[0], putting me 5.2 pips away from having been stopped out. Is my stop loss too tight for an entry into a longer-term carry trade or was today just a volatile day, perhaps with the market indecisive about continuing the trend?
At any rate, since I want to stay in this trade in hopes of experiencing a carry trade (even if my total position time ends up being a rather short carry trade) but am unwilling to adjust my risk level, I adjusted my stop loss down a hair more than my one day rollover income to 0.9415[0].
Thanks for the discussions, I'm learning quite a bit from the forums here.
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mekosmowski, yeah honestly "true carry traders" that plan on being in trades for months minimally will have stops that are 500 to 1,000 pips away at a time.
Most people that claim they are carry traders really are not.
And that's okay. They can get in for appreciation in the currency and to pick up a few cents along the way while they are in it...nothing wrong with that at all.
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Last edited by Sean Hyman; 10-01-2009 at 11:22 AM..
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10-01-2009, 07:17 PM
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Well, I was stopped out earlier in the day. I learned that right now I don't have the capital for carry trades. In fact, as I become successful at forex trading, maybe I'd want to open a separate account to keep carry trades segregated from shorter-term trades.
Will anyone have a problem if I periodically pop in with a possible carry opportunity even if I'm not personally taking a position?
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10-02-2009, 10:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mekosmowski
Well, I was stopped out earlier in the day. I learned that right now I don't have the capital for carry trades. In fact, as I become successful at forex trading, maybe I'd want to open a separate account to keep carry trades segregated from shorter-term trades.
Will anyone have a problem if I periodically pop in with a possible carry opportunity even if I'm not personally taking a position?
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mekosmowski, nope that's perfectly fine.
I'd still like to see you contribute here even if you're doing paper trades. Focusing on trades like that even before your capital is up there will help you to be successful when your capital is at that point.
So it's a good "mental exercise".
Here's something to consider too.
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10-02-2009, 02:20 PM
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Since this is the "Carry Trade" forum, I figured it was the best place to talk about the new carry trade.
US Dollar bulls are cooked....
From Welcome To Jim Sinclair’s MineSet
Quote:
It is very important that the new definition of what the US currency is now be fully understood.
The US dollar is now under the pressure of the Carry Trade as well as all other factors.
The cost of US dollar simplified is a means between the Libor rate and the shorter term US treasury rates. The size of available funds is quite enormous according to your financial status. As an example, what limit would there be for a Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan?
The operation increases the amount of dollars in transactional supply. Transactional funds are funds in the marketplace versus (as an example) funds being hoarded by US banks now.
The Carry Trade is initiated and then covered by borrowing and shorting the US dollar to guard against downside risk of the basic long.
Carry operations are generally not short term in their outlook.
By borrowing the currency of carry and shorting it the risk is contained by buying the higher yielding currency instrument. If that currency risk is covered, a classic transaction is made.
The Carry Trade is in many cases far from classic, and are used to fund higher risk transactions.
Either way it puts supply into the US dollar transactional market and defined, active and strong trade interest to hold down the value of the carry currency, now the US dollar.
The Carry Trade generally puts a multi-year and extremely bearish factor on the currency selected by the carry traders as the carry currency.
A waning of Green shoots and the growing transparency of MOPE as illusionary encourages the Carry Trade. This nullifies the propaganda that a lower equity market or slow business recover to no business recovery is good for the dollar as a flight to safety.
I am sorry to say, but a US depression would be Christmas for a dollar Carry Trader.
The US dollar controls the price of gold, so therefore the more pressure on the downside of the US dollar, the more upside pressure on gold.
Since the Carry Trade is usually far from classic and seeks to fund higher risk transactions than the classic form, the inviting conclusion is the Carry Trade will now be long gold.
The count of days will not be far off the mark, if off the mark at all.
One thing is for certain: The US dollar is very far from a SAFEHAVEN under its new definition as the Carry Currency of choice..
Gold is going to $1224, $1650 and then on to Alf's numbers.
Respectfully yours,
Jim
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10-02-2009, 02:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Since this is the "Carry Trade" forum, I figured it was the best place to talk about the new carry trade.
US Dollar bulls are cooked....
From Welcome To Jim Sinclair’s MineSet |
speculator, yeah the dollar is at another "make or break" point as it literally sits right on its downtrend line right now.
Next week we should either get a clear break above it....OR...a continuance of the downtrend.
The G-7 is already cheerleading for a "strong dollar" even before this weekend's G-7 meeting gets under way.
The question is...will they get what they want? Or will the market laugh in their face? We'll know next week.
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10-02-2009, 03:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
speculator, yeah the dollar is at another "make or break" point as it literally sits right on its downtrend line right now.
Next week we should either get a clear break above it....OR...a continuance of the downtrend.
The G-7 is already cheerleading for a "strong dollar" even before this weekend's G-7 meeting gets under way.
The question is...will they get what they want? Or will the market laugh in their face? We'll know next week.
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I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell that the dollar rallys from here  .
The G-7 in no way can actually want a strong dollar. The US needs exports to increase and asia needs to start spending money, so I could see a devaluation across the board against asian currencies (JPY as a proxy?).
Last edited by speculator84; 10-02-2009 at 03:28 PM..
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10-02-2009, 03:29 PM
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should we start a USD carry trade basket??! |
10-02-2009, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
should we start a USD carry trade basket??! |
My favorite is still the JPY for carry trades. The reason being is because Japan almost never raises rates high. The U.S. eventually does.
So while their rates are low now....they won't be for the long haul...but Japan's may be.
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10-05-2009, 11:00 AM
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Aussie dollar consolidating before tonight's interest rate announcement at 11:30 pm EST tonight.
Be aware of the rate decision and the market's response.
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10-05-2009, 02:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
Aussie dollar consolidating before tonight's interest rate announcement at 11:30 pm EST tonight.
Be aware of the rate decision and the market's response.
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That chart screams breakout, thanks sean. |
10-05-2009, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
That chart screams breakout, thanks sean.
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speculator, you're welcome. Yeah, it could have a pretty sizable break before reaching major support/resistance.
We'll see.
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10-06-2009, 04:37 AM
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Well the first currency of the NEW USD Carry trade is!!!
AUD/USD ! Get it while it's cheap boys.
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10-06-2009, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Well the first currency of the NEW USD Carry trade is!!!
AUD/USD ! Get it while it's cheap boys.
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speculator84, yeah AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are the first ones to experience rate hikes. Correct!
Thanks for pointing that out. Dollar Falls After Australia Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rates - Bloomberg.com
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10-07-2009, 11:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Well the first currency of the NEW USD Carry trade is!!!
AUD/USD ! Get it while it's cheap boys.
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speculator, AUD/CAD may be shaping up for its next advance too. We'll see. See what you think.
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10-07-2009, 04:50 PM
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I went long AUD/CAD again a couple days ago as a swing trade. At one point it was up 20 pips from my entry and then went down to only being 5 pips up from my entry. I was still happy with the charts, so I added to the position, but with a tight profit limit for the second position.
So far I've profited out of one position and the other is 10 pips or so from profiting out also. If this position is still open when I have access to Tradestation (in about 2 hours, so who knows what will happen) I'm thinking to increase my stop loss to 10 pips of profit and giving myself 5 times more room on the upside for the profit limit for a pseudo-carry trade with no possibility of loss.
Closed position: entry: 0.9411[8], exit: 0.9446[0], rollover: 0.10
Open position: entry: 0.9422[1], stop loss: 0.9336[4], profit limit: 0.94688, rollover: hopefully 0.05 very shortly
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