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10-26-2009, 10:07 AM
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See if AUD/USD can break to the upside. If so...the carry trade may continue to go on.
With the expectation of higher rates coming in the future...there's a huge likelihood of this. If it breaks south....then look for the next "upside break" opportunity to unfold after the correction.
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10-27-2009, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
See if AUD/USD can break to the upside. If so...the carry trade may continue to go on.
With the expectation of higher rates coming in the future...there's a huge likelihood of this. If it breaks south....then look for the next "upside break" opportunity to unfold after the correction.
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Wait for the next round of Aussie strength as it breaks higher. So far, still in "breaking lower" mode at present.
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10-28-2009, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
Wait for the next round of Aussie strength as it breaks higher. So far, still in "breaking lower" mode at present.
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Here are the next levels to watch on AUD/USD. Remember, there's no need to enter a "carry trade" when the trend in the near term is still downward.
Wait for it to find some footing first.
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10-28-2009, 03:13 PM
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slide........like you're going your own way!
In every trend there are corrections or set backs. To slide 3 cents in a day is not a reversal, but merely a dominoe effect of fear, resulting in a correctional sell-off.
Let it slide until the markets feel a little more optimistic and then when it starts to rise again - buy more. Now you can make profits from 89 cents...rather than the 93 cents it was at a few days ago.
How low will it go before we see a rise again? Or is that it - and will we see this a s the reversal?
My guess is that it will continue the trend upwards because tomorrow US GDP figures are released and that is expected to show that the recession has ended in usa...the first positive quarter of growth....and therefore its better news than 6 months ago.
Hope and fear......this is more like religion that I realised...LOL.
the phoenix
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10-28-2009, 03:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the phoenix
In every trend there are corrections or set backs. To slide 3 cents in a day is not a reversal, but merely a dominoe effect of fear, resulting in a correctional sell-off.
Let it slide until the markets feel a little more optimistic and then when it starts to rise again - buy more. Now you can make profits from 89 cents...rather than the 93 cents it was at a few days ago.
How low will it go before we see a rise again? Or is that it - and will we see this a s the reversal?
My guess is that it will continue the trend upwards because tomorrow US GDP figures are released and that is expected to show that the recession has ended in usa...the first positive quarter of growth....and therefore its better news than 6 months ago.
Hope and fear......this is more like religion that I realised...LOL.
the phoenix
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Yeah, if it responds to fundamentals...then AUD will continue to have an overall "leg up" on USD.
If fear starts to dominate the markets (if stocks fall), that's the only time when I see USD dominating most currencies. We'll see.
Stocks are well overdue for a major correction.
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10-29-2009, 05:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the phoenix
....
My guess is that it will continue the trend upwards because tomorrow US GDP figures are released and that is expected to show that the recession has ended in usa...the first positive quarter of growth....and therefore its better news than 6 months ago.
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yes... and part of that is because a weak dollar, right?... how to hold down a positive GBP in coming quarters?
by the way, thanks to that weak dollar one may buy lots of US products here in the Philippines... good quality at good price... I enjoy going to the super...
A.
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Patience, Discipline, Consistency, Confidence...
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10-29-2009, 10:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arodriguez
yes... and part of that is because a weak dollar, right?... how to hold down a positive GBP in coming quarters?
by the way, thanks to that weak dollar one may buy lots of US products here in the Philippines... good quality at good price... I enjoy going to the super...
A.
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Once the govt money stimulus money runs out...and its seen that the consumer hasn't been able to "pick up the baton" because of a lack of credit/lending...we'll see GDP cave once again. Sad to say.
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10-29-2009, 02:02 PM
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Just a "heads up". I'll be out on vacation from Nov. 2nd to 9th. So I hope you guys will step up to the plate during this time and keep this awesome thing going.
I will have several instructors popping in and out throughout each day and they will be making a few posts here and there. However, their primary job is still to "man the courses".
One other note....f or those new to the forums...if you'd like to see how to register and post to the forum...check this shor video out: DailyFX Forum Registration Video: YouTube - DailyFX Forum Registration Video
I'll be back on the forums on Nov. 10th.
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Email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
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10-30-2009, 11:09 AM
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Possibly one of the best uptrending carry trades out there right now.
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11-09-2009, 02:06 PM
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IMF out today touting the dollar as the funding currency for the carry trade. Not a surprise to us as we have long recognized the relationship. However, one has to ask is their crowning of it, a sign that the relationship is ending. Probably not anytime soon with the Fed now not expected to raise rates until at least the middle of 2010 with many looking as far out as 2011. As long as investors can borrow cheap in dollars they will continue to prefer the greenback and its security over other currencies. Unless the U.S. spending spree puts its credit rating in jeopardy.
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11-11-2009, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Rivera
IMF out today touting the dollar as the funding currency for the carry trade. Not a surprise to us as we have long recognized the relationship. However, one has to ask is their crowning of it, a sign that the relationship is ending. Probably not anytime soon with the Fed now not expected to raise rates until at least the middle of 2010 with many looking as far out as 2011. As long as investors can borrow cheap in dollars they will continue to prefer the greenback and its security over other currencies. Unless the U.S. spending spree puts its credit rating in jeopardy.
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Speaking of "dollar carry trades" this must be one of the best out there....AUD/USD. What a pretty uptrend it's been.
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11-11-2009, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Rivera
IMF out today touting the dollar as the funding currency for the carry trade. Not a surprise to us as we have long recognized the relationship. However, one has to ask is their crowning of it, a sign that the relationship is ending. Probably not anytime soon with the Fed now not expected to raise rates until at least the middle of 2010 with many looking as far out as 2011. As long as investors can borrow cheap in dollars they will continue to prefer the greenback and its security over other currencies. Unless the U.S. spending spree puts its credit rating in jeopardy.
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John....how would the US loosing it's credit rating hinder the carry trade? I'd reckon that would only intensify it....
The IMF also said something else about the USD and I quote "OVERVALUED".
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11-11-2009, 04:15 PM
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EURGBP
EUR/GBP finally broke higher today out of the consolodation area i was watching, this rally should turn into an intra-day rally back towards fibonacci resistance at .9164 and i think it may go a bit higher too, ultimately I am looking for a short opportunity anywhere by .9164 or higher for an eventual move downward through the longer term up trend line on the daily chart...
A shooting star candle is in place last month on the monthly chart giving confirmation a top is in place, bears should now be looking to short this market at resistance... There is potentially a very big move into the down side here worth a lot of pips With beautiful candlestick confirmation of a long term top in place already, I will be shorting EURGBP in size.. I have been patiently watching and waiting for the perfect short entry in this pair for quite a while now, Oh how sweet it will be
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11-11-2009, 11:56 PM
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EUR/GBP
Hello Brad, I'm also on 24/7 watch for this pair and will be going short anything above 0.92. Your AUD/JPY lead seems to be working fine and hopefully it stays in the current uptrend. Any other pair with major move in on horizons? Cheers San
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11-12-2009, 12:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SKS
Hello Brad, I'm also on 24/7 watch for this pair and will be going short anything above 0.92. Your AUD/JPY lead seems to be working fine and hopefully it stays in the current uptrend. Any other pair with major move in on horizons? Cheers San
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This pair has lately been moving like a turtle. It's going to take a lot of patience and time to wait 92, if it's going there at all. |
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