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11-19-2009, 05:39 AM
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JP MORGAN
Has reaffirmed short USD medium term ..
JP note
Fixed income: Open short in 2-year USTs. Within EMU, we overweight Ireland and Italy but we prefer to position for this through CDS.
Equities: Asset reflation favors the high-risk, high-beta parts of the equity market.
Credit: European credit 2010 outlook—stay overweight Financials focusing on Lower Tier II, Tier I issued in 2009, and distressed Financials within HY.
FX: We stay short USD medium term and focus on crossrates where interest rate markets looked mispriced.
Alternatives: Stay short oil, but long base metals and agricultural products.
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11-19-2009, 03:50 PM
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DailyFX Power Course Instructor
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWilson
JP MORGAN
Has reaffirmed short USD medium term ..
JP note
Fixed income: Open short in 2-year USTs. Within EMU, we overweight Ireland and Italy but we prefer to position for this through CDS.
Equities: Asset reflation favors the high-risk, high-beta parts of the equity market.
Credit: European credit 2010 outlook—stay overweight Financials focusing on Lower Tier II, Tier I issued in 2009, and distressed Financials within HY.
FX: We stay short USD medium term and focus on crossrates where interest rate markets looked mispriced.
Alternatives: Stay short oil, but long base metals and agricultural products.
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Mr. Wilson, these are always unique insights and I appreciate you sharing them with all of us. That's great stuff.
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11-19-2009, 03:51 PM
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Are you new to the forums and want to start posting with us here in the trading community?
Check out this short video and I'll show you how to get registered for free and how to maneuver through the forums.
DailyFX Forum Registration Video: YouTube - DailyFX Forum Registration Video
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11-20-2009, 11:45 AM
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The AUD/CAD carry trade may break higher after its pull back. Check it out below.
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11-20-2009, 03:18 PM
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11-23-2009, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWilson
JP MORGAN
Has reaffirmed short USD medium term ..
JP note
Fixed income: Open short in 2-year USTs. Within EMU, we overweight Ireland and Italy but we prefer to position for this through CDS.
Equities: Asset reflation favors the high-risk, high-beta parts of the equity market.
Credit: European credit 2010 outlook—stay overweight Financials focusing on Lower Tier II, Tier I issued in 2009, and distressed Financials within HY.
FX: We stay short USD medium term and focus on crossrates where interest rate markets looked mispriced.
Alternatives: Stay short oil, but long base metals and agricultural products.
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So far the AUD/CAD carry trade remains upward.
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11-24-2009, 11:41 AM
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AUD/CAD is correcting...broke a short term trend line but still has its major trend intact.
So a correction to the main uptrend line is likely in order.
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11-25-2009, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
AUD/CAD is correcting...broke a short term trend line but still has its major trend intact.
So a correction to the main uptrend line is likely in order.
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AUD/USD completes a bullish inverted head & shoulders pattern after the Australian central bank talked about an "upswing" in their economy that could last for years.
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11-30-2009, 12:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
AUD/CAD is correcting...broke a short term trend line but still has its major trend intact.
So a correction to the main uptrend line is likely in order.
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AUD/CAD needs to break this top resistance line in order for the carry trade to continue on.
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12-01-2009, 09:44 AM
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Thanks Sean
Here's RBS's 2010 Top Themes and Trades report.
Amongst other things their recommending Buy basket of AUD NOK and ILS vs the USD . Selling JPY/KRW & USD/BRL
Check out the trade list on page 5 for targets and stops... 
TopThemesTrades_Dec09 |
12-01-2009, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWilson
Thanks Sean
Here's RBS's 2010 Top Themes and Trades report.
Amongst other things their recommending Buy basket of AUD NOK and ILS vs the USD . Selling JPY/KRW & USD/BRL
Check out the trade list on page 5 for targets and stops...
TopThemesTrades_Dec09 |
Great info here Mr. Wilson.
I'm thinking that AUD should break higher after this consolidation as in times past since, overall, the rate hike should be bullish for them...especially since they are so far ahead of most banks in their rate hike cycle.
On top of that, the USD should have low rates for months to come at least. So the widening differential between these two could continue this carry trade.
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12-01-2009, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWilson
JP MORGAN
Has reaffirmed short USD medium term ..
JP note
Fixed income: Open short in 2-year USTs. Within EMU, we overweight Ireland and Italy but we prefer to position for this through CDS.
Equities: Asset reflation favors the high-risk, high-beta parts of the equity market.
Credit: European credit 2010 outlook—stay overweight Financials focusing on Lower Tier II, Tier I issued in 2009, and distressed Financials within HY.
FX: We stay short USD medium term and focus on crossrates where interest rate markets looked mispriced.
Alternatives: Stay short oil, but long base metals and agricultural products.
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How will they position themselves as regards Ireland and Italy?. Can Ireland take any more of a beating?. Probably. Actually, definitely i'd say  |
12-01-2009, 01:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing
How will they position themselves as regards Ireland and Italy?. Can Ireland take any more of a beating?. Probably. Actually, definitely i'd say |
Simple way is via Sovereign Credit default swaps (S-CDS)
Here's Italy's CDS for example
ITALY 4AB951 Rep Italy 91 -2 5 17 |
12-02-2009, 09:55 AM
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DailyFX Power Course Instructor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWilson
Thanks Sean
Here's RBS's 2010 Top Themes and Trades report.
Amongst other things their recommending Buy basket of AUD NOK and ILS vs the USD . Selling JPY/KRW & USD/BRL
Check out the trade list on page 5 for targets and stops...
TopThemesTrades_Dec09 |
Mr. Wilson, AUD/USD carry trade could be perking back up now.
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12-02-2009, 10:13 AM
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Hi Sean
A snap election could be problematic ......
CANBERRA - Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's finger remains on the trigger for a snap election despite renewed assurances yesterday by his deputy, Julia Gillard, that the Australian Government has no plans to use the climate war as an excuse for an early poll.
Rudd's finger still on poll trigger after ETS blow - World - NZ Herald News |
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