Given the recent yen appreciation, the G10 carry trade has taken a very significant hit--nearing its worse levels since the August rout. As I argue in the USDJPY forum, however, an ongoing shift in yen positions leaves risks for a short-term USDJPY correction before continuation to the downside.

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Carry Traders Positioning

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.56 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 12.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.9% higher than yesterday and 3.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.0% stronger than yesterday and 12.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...715337428.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI

Carry Trade Positioning

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.39 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.56 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 16.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.6% higher than yesterday and 0.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.5% weaker than yesterday and 8.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.42 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.8% lower than yesterday and 20.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 19.4% higher than yesterday and 18.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.6% weaker than yesterday and 3.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Looks like we saw a very substantive bounce on the day's massive US stock market rally.

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Anyone notice that the yen pairs didn't really follow the Asia session equity market rally higher? USDJPY stuck to a range for the most part, while EURJPY and GBPJPY pulled lower. I'm curious to see if price action in the US stock markets has any impact...

Carry Trade Positioning

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.8% higher than yesterday and 1.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 18.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.52 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.49 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.1% higher than yesterday and 24.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.9% higher than yesterday and 15.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.2% stronger than yesterday and 32.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.06 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 17.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 11.8% higher than yesterday and 7.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.1% stronger than yesterday and 5.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

The carry trade looks relatively unchanged to start the week's trading. This may all change, of course, with critical RBNZ and RBA rate decisions due within two consecutive days. The RBA does not release statements when it leaves rates unchanged, which it is most likely to do, but the RBNZ does release text. It will be important to watch official commentary to gauge the likely direction of these high-yielders' domestic interest rates.

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Carry Trade Positioning


USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.1% higher than yesterday and 3.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 12.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.7% stronger than yesterday and 13.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.52 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.49 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.6% higher than yesterday and 33.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.8% higher than yesterday and 10.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.5% stronger than yesterday and 40.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.06 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 14.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.2% higher than yesterday and 4.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.4% stronger than yesterday and 5.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 8.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 19.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 9.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.49 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.1% higher than yesterday and 38.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 14.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 14.3% stronger than yesterday and 41.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.06 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 12.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.2% higher than yesterday and 18.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 13.6% stronger than yesterday and 2.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

The carry trade has been fairly stable as of late. It should be important to watch how risky assets respond to tomorrow's critical NFP release, however.

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USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 5.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 11.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 7.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.06 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.0% higher than yesterday and 13.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 32.8% higher than yesterday and 27.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 17.8% stronger than yesterday and 5.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains


Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...955779569.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

I have a question for Antonio, or someone else who feels qualified to answer.
How effective is the SSI indicator? When you say, for instance "SSI is a contrarian indicator and indicates more USD/JPY losses", what does it really mean? Would it indicate losses the same day, or this week, or next month, for example? Short term losses or long term? Next wave developing? Next trend?
Would you say that it is an important indicator, like stochastic or MACD?
Thank you

Hello to you!
Does this GBP/JPY-thread stop here forever?
Your last comment was on 10-19-2007. now about 6 weeks are gone.

And you were referring to The Carry Trade: Buy or Sell - section:
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...t=13941&page=5

But this one is also almost dead since 10-19-2007.

no more comments here on GBP/JPY? We had good movements in November and now in December. GBP/JPY (and other crosses) are still alive!

low yielder

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 9.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 16.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

high yielder

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.15 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 31.1% higher than yesterday and 123.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 37.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.