Nicley worded BLIZZARD, the incredible hulk analogy is a good one, and an unpredictable one.

So clearly the AUD/YEN is in a steady down trend over the long term, i can feel someone pushing down on my shoulders!! But is there a point that you are looking for where there are some important historical points of support/resistance?

The resistance line you demonstrate in your chart looks fine, but i have traded this pair a number of times at so called support/resistance lines.

How do you tell the difference between near term and long term support?

Just the amount of p/a and time spent at certain points?

Bertie

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Bertie

Sorry I took so much time but the questions are good one that I needed to think hard about them.

Let me begin by saying I don’t trade AUD/JPY and don’t have a chart over 1H for it, so I can’t comment on the historical S + R. I do have a comment on GBP/JPY AND EUR/JPY and that is that if I had just let them go and went with pairs that were ‘friendly’ I would be not working the day job right now. You have said (I think) that this is your nemesis pair. Well, I came from commodities and I always did well with lean hogs, so much that my wife would ask how are my pigs, fat or lean. I saw soybeans and the moves they made but I always lost. Then into FOREX and I thought in the demo that guppy was my pair. Then live it bent me over many times!!!! You know how in life there are some people that you just don’t get along with and you don’t know why? There are currencies like that too. Stay away!!!!!!

I have learned one thing over and over again (maybe I was taught, but didn’t learn). The trend is the trend until the end. If you look at the GBP charts I have posted, tell me, where do you think it’s gonna go? Did you think it would drop 1000pts? I certainly didn’t. But if you try to pick turning points or tops and bottoms that is a big problem. You are actually trading counter trend and that is a licence to lose money. It goes against human nature but until evidence shows that a trend is over, follow it.

As far as near term and LT support that is a good question. Using GBP as the example, I generally look at what I can see on my screen on a 1D chart, which means for the bulk of this run, there is nothing. That is NT support. But if you draw a line at the bounces at 1.7441 and 1.5227 and look at the weekly you will see congestion and a bounce at the 1.74 mark going back to 04 and 05 and on the other one a bounce back in 2000 and 02. The next big line is 1.40. I generally don’t look at that long of TF.

If you look back at 1D GBP march 06 and on you will see plenty of S+R lines. That was fun there. That is what I like.

I have added the EUR chart, the wedge that happened at the same time as the GBP one. I like it for a few reasons, one, it dropped about as much as I expected (300pts) but look at the retrace and subsequent prices. THE 4H DOWN TREND IS STILL INTACT!!!! (BTW, so on the GBP too) It spiked right at the apex!!! Isn’t that trippy?

I don't understand one of your statements.

"The resistance line you demonstrate in your chart looks fine, but i have traded this pair a number of times at so called support/resistance lines."

If I understand correctly, you have lost at points like this. Think of S+R lines as 1) drawn in thick crayon and 2) as a line in the sand. Either it holds or doesn't. If your stop is too close you were right but lost which is the worst. But that is a problem of money Mgmt, not trading. If the price doesn't bounce at or near the line, you have the option of following the break. Just watch out for the bull/bear trap!

Does that help?

Blizzard

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Anybody trae this pair off trend line. Give me your thoughts to a good trade or not ..Thanks

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Cliff:

Like I told Bertie, JPY isn't my thing cuz it tends to break Tlines and other bad things, but my guess is it goes back to the 4H TL. It's 96.90 right now it's got another 100pts to go.

But that's only a guess. It did a bear trap (I showed it on post 184) on the last big break, so this 40 pts break could be the same. That is why I prefer other pairs.

Also, I show on the 15M that the break of R is now bouncing on that as S for the last 3 periods.

Bottom line-- I'm not in.

Blizzard

Closed trade. nearing N.y session. Candlestick showing less Momentum to down side, 100pip swing today.Dont anticipate further downside.

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Hi!

I have some questions about dailyfx plus. I didnt find the place on forum where to write about this so i choose to write here.

What are yours experiences with the daily fx plus.
I was watching that the stop limit is about 200-300 pips down. Is this a lot or am I just thinking that is too much. I was working with limits 50 pips up and down. I was watching that almost every trade there brings profit. What do you suggest me how to trade with help of dailyfx plus?

I am a begginner!

Thank you!

Reading your post, looking at the chart, that move doesn't look like much but you got 100pts out of it, great.

Fast forward to today, I wake up late not thinking of trading, but scanning the charts and I see the EUR waaaay up. I don't usually use indicators, but just 2 days ago, I was reading about a way to look at RSI differently. You can see it peaked at 60 for the 2 shots at the Tline, then was super high. Shorting is w/ big trend so I decided to go for it when the 1H candle closed. I was S @1.2766.

To make a long story short, if I had not just seen your post, I wouldn't have been in. When it hit the 1H Tline, it bounced about 40 pts and then continued down.

I need to remind myself that while some moves may look insignificant, they can achieve our goals. Thanks Cliff for the reminder. I owe you a beer. Or at least a few pips.

Blizzard

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Sure Ill take a few pips. Im glad your strategy worked with the RSI.
Nice to here feed back.
Good luck trading .

A newbie question.

Is it better to trade with the trend or against the trend.

Some say it's better against the trend.

IF YOU LOOK AT MY CHARTS YOU HAVE MY ANSWER.

BLIZZARD

WOW!!! I LOVE WEDGES!!!!!

THE LAST EUR WAS GOOD FOR 300 PTS, AND GBP WAS AROUND 1000. HERE WE GO AGAIN, MONDAY PERHAPS. EXCEPT FOR THE FALSE BREAK, EUR HAS OBEYED THE TOP 4H TLINE 7X AND 4 ON THE BOTTOM W NO BREAKS. ITS WINDING LIKE A SPRING.

A BIG SPRING.

OR BUILDING PRESSURE LIKE MT. ST. HELENS.

BLIZZARD

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CLIFF,

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WERE BOTH RIGHT. DEPENDING ON YOU MONEY MGMT, YOU COULD HAVE STAYED IN AND HAVE A BUNCH MORE PTS IN YOUR COFFERS OR YOU COULD HAVE TAKEN YOUR 100, THEN TAKEN ANOTHER BUNCH ON THE RETRACE TO THE 4H AND SUBSEQUENT DROP.

IN FACT, A FEW HRS LATER IT HIT THE 4 - TLINE, THEN DROPPED 80 PTS, OUT AT THE SPINNING TOPS OR WHATEVER THOSE CANDLES ARE CALLED.

THEN YOU COULD HAVE RE-ENTERED S 11 HRS LATER WHEN SHE HIT THE TLINE AGAIN.

SO 2 ENTRIES AFTER YOUR FIRST ONE.

MAYBE I SHOULD TRADE JPY AGAIN.

BLIZZARD

Hii

I am quite bullish on USD/CHF as weekly chart indicate. Weekly close above the trend line is indicating next target of 124.75 and probably 130is very much in place. Looking to go long with stop below 120.27. Sugestions are welcome
Have a profitable week

Regards

Jewel


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Hi all

I think there is a good buying opportunity in Euro/GBP. The previous strong resistance of .8221 is testing now. if the 50% Fib level of recent rally .8175 ( .7692 to .8660)holds, new high can be expected in the coming days. An eventual upside breakout through 0.8575 and on above 0.8669 ,0.8839, 0.9125 and on to parity. Suggestions are welcomes

Regards

Jewe
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Hi it looks like on the weekly chart this time that it is overbought with the rsi and stoch