Nice chart and nice trading.. But what signals you to get in or out ? Is it the candlestick pattern ? or what ? and whre do u place ur stop?

Much like the popular 1983 movie Trading Places starring Eddie Murphy, Turtle Trading began with a bet between multi-millionaire commodities traders Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt.

in 1983 Richard Dennis believed that you could teach people to be great traders. Bill Eckhardt disagreed, believing that genetics and intelligence were the primary factors of success.

To settle their argument, they decided to test it out for themselves. Dennis put an ad in the paper seeking traders - no experience required. After interviewing over 1000 applicants ended up with a group of about 20 diverse individuals. Some were Ivy-League grads and others hadn't gone to college. What followed was a true test of nature versus nurture.

After about a week of training, which included a simple set of guidlines and system rules, Dennis set up most traders with million dollar accounts to trade. Only after a week!

The experiment ended up being a success with the Turtles earning on average 80% per year. Dennis won the bet and proved that traders could be taught to be successful with a simple set of rules and money to trade with.

25 years later

More than 25 years later the Turtle system is still showing to be successful. With better technology, traders have been able to code the Turtle rules into a system that trades automatically. One such company that does this is DNA Technologies. They offer the public a professionally coded software program that trades the Turtle System automatically so you don't have to do a thing. They reported returns of 255% in 2008, even when the stock market was taking a huge dive. For more information, visit: www.OriginalTurtleTrader.com

Ammar the signals are the lines themselves, hence the trendline thread. The big red guy is a Support line that dated back weeks and was also used as Resistance. I knew it would bounce cuz it usually does, and that it wouldn't hold the second time cuz it was too soon for it to be retested and hold, just a matter of hours.

I love candles, but they still are a trailing indicator, cuz you have to wait for them to close to know what they look like.

The same trendline or S and R line will project into infinity, and depending on it's importance, will generally hold at least once.

As far as the stops, the nice thing is that they can be close due to the 'line in the sand' factor. You are either right or wrong and there is very little middle ground. I do a min of 30 pts.

Better than a quick post here, google BRV no brainer trades and read it all.

I will post later, but right now the EUR is making a wedge that I really like-- kinda like the last time when she jumped a few hun pts.

Keep right.

Blizzard

EUR / GBP has appreciated considerably in the past several months. Fundamentally, this may not be sustainable as there's evidence that UK has started to show some positive turns due to its aggressive monetary policy, while Euro has yet to catch up. Technically, we are probably due for some considerable reversal too.

Although in the long term, EUR GBP is probably on the way down, recent price movement suggests a possible short term / midterm upmove with this pair.

From the daily chart in Exhibit 1, there's a pretty strong resistance level at 0.908. As you can see in the chart, there is a possible head and shoulder pattern with the neckline at 0.908. This 0.908 level has been tested three times in the past several days and so far has not been breached. This level also coincides with 0.382 Fib XH and 0.50 Fib AH. Furthermore, it also coincides with 50 day SMA. As such this level is very important to monitor.

A short term upmove could be possible due to the hammer last Friday and also MACD starts turning up. Next week there could be another retest of 0.908. If this level is broken, the first target could be the falling trend line at 0.925, and the second target could be point A at 0.952. At this level, the distance between the neckline and 0.952 would be equal to the distance between head and neckline.

If going long, stop should be put just below the shoulder at 0.883. We could probably try to enter long by looking at the EW pattern from 15 min chart. One possible EW pattern can be found attached in Exhibit 2. The top of the rebound last Friday is probably still wave 3 (2.618 fib extension of wave 1-2), and thus we are waiting for completion of wave C before entering long. Or we could also try to enter on a breakout of neckline at 0.908

Further supporting the upmove possibility is the Bullish Gartley pattern in the daily chart (Exhibit 3). This pattern has the correct Bullish Gartley proportion, which may suggest a further upmove.

Hello Chris,

Are you using the Turtle Automated Trend Trading Software, for how long and how is the performance so far. Your honest opinion will be much appreciated. Taa

I have long used trends in the stock markets. Though many may find it boring and perhaps too simple, trend lines used along with support and resistance analysis can be very insightful.



In this chart of the Euro/Dollar we can see a wealth of information provided by simple lines.
First are two major support and resistance lines. The dashed white line across the top at 1.47 has been major resistance point over the past months. The second is the blue dashed line near 1.24 that is major resistance/support that can be traced back to 2006! No break below this line has managed to maintain its momentum and has resulted in some very nice explosions to the upside.
We have two minor battle lines drawn at 1.28 and 1.29, the dark green line and the white line. The white line is serving as the main battle line as can be seen in the green boxes.
We should see a bounce off of this line, then a bounce off of the dashed blue line resulting in a nice short term reversal trend moving back toward 1.30.
As can be seen by the history of battle just below the green box on the left it may take several bounces before we see this reverse. That is unless the bears manage to break the four year old barrier to the downside and we see major new lows being made.

The yellow and lite blue lines show no real reversal in the long term trend down, even though we see a breakout above the resistance barrier (in the white circle).

No complicated math. No magic formulas. Just simple lines and resistance-support points.

In war as in business one soon learns three basic tenets.
1. Gather information on the enemy.
2. Form a battle plan. Do we attack or defend?
3. Implement the plan.

So first we gather information. We take a look at the daily one year chart of the USD/JPY and decide where the battle will take place.



As we can see from this overview we have major resistance at the red dashed line, and some support at the blue line. Lets move to a one hour chart and work out a plan of attack/defense.



From here we see the stair step effect and trend lines showing we are indeed in a bullish movement. But we also see troubles. There is a break in the support trend line (lower white box). If you were long at this point, it would have been time to consider taking some profit, and/or tightening your stops to lock in gains/prevent loss. Now we see the trend resume and another break (upper white box) along with multiple failures to penetrate the enemy's defenses at the red line.
Now lets take a look at our army. We see a sign of weakness in the bears. Notice the long wicks of the candles pointing down (the blue arrows). This seems to indicate that our bullish troops outnumber the bears.

Since we failed to hold our positions above the red line, we regroup and wait for the counter-assault. If the enemy fails to penetrate our defense at the blue and white lines (white arrows) we can consider entering a trade and go long at .96 with a target of .100-.105. If not we turn traitor and join the enemy. =)

Trend lines. Support lines. Resistance lines. Information gathered is useless unless one puts it to work.
1. Gather information.
2. Form a plan.
3. Put the plan in motion and stick to it!

Today we take a look at a daily chart of the USD/EUR dating from August-September of 2008 through todays New York close.



First notice the yellow lines with the red arrows just above them. These are our resistance lines showing a strong long term downtrend.
Second, notice the white boxes. These are breakouts of the trend, or counter trends/corrections. So how do we know these are corrections or counters and not true reversals in the long term trend?
The violence. Notice how our true long term trends are in gentle, sloping stair-step form. Then we look at the breakouts. See how they are violent in nature? No gentle sloping, no stair-step effect?

Another confirmation that the longer multi-year downtrend has not been broken are the lower highs made. See the arrows pointing at the purple line? See how the latest highest high was lower than the last highest high?

Lastly we look at the latest breakout of the long term downtrends, in the third box on the right. See how weak this breakout turned out to be? But we also notice something else. See the dark purple line across the bottom? A series of higher lows.

So what do my ramblings, babblings and mumbo-jumbo along with the trend indicators tell me? We are moving into a tighter range. Over the next year we should continue to see lower highs and higher lows, bringing the base up from 1.24 to the 1.26 range, and the highs down below the 1.45 range, possibly into the high 1.30's low 1.40's.

That is if the Euro-zone does not collapse of course. I do not believe it will. But when it comes to political and social upheaval I never rule anything out.

nice clean trading

Dear All,

This is my first chart here...

SELL GBPUSD at 1.3980, SL 1.4025, TP 1.3850

this is what my eyes captured on H1 chart, looking forward to learn drawing finer trend lines...

All opinions are welcome...

Attached Thumbnails

 

Hi.
We see a clear downtrend channel well drawn but I think you have to be aware of the horizontals support and resistance in your chart, and also notice how the candlestick formations is talking to you, and they are telling you that it is a possible ending for that channel and a possible break is waiting, there is too much congestion in the last zone where the 4 doji are. So my advice will be wait for further confirmation, not only for the trend lines break but use another indicator, I would recommend you SMA 10 and 20 and wait for crossover….

On the EurNzd daily I see a good trade possibly coming up. I will be selling a break of this TL that goes back to the end of oct 08. Buying a good bounce with a tight stop. As with lots of breaks I imagine it will fall hard and then retrace with a bounce off the bottom of the trendline for further downside.

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f1...nzdtlfor-1.gif

USDCAD too in a similar situation... break or bounce...

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Update of my previous EurNzd chart

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f1...rnzdupdate.jpg

As you see the price bounced right off the trendline. I have a long in at the TL and have already moved my risk to 0. I will lock in profit soon as i have the chance. I would actually still like to see this fall through the TL, it goes much better with my wider view of Nzd

I read this in a book in a book I bought. The information italics is the confusing part

When the market breaks the uptrend line and enters into a sell zone (below the trend line), always take time to check the angle of the trend line. The backside of the uptrend line will now act as resistance. Should the market begin to rally again, it will need to break through the backside of that trend line or the resistance. If the backside of the trend line is lower than the last high, there is an 80% chance of a continued dip and a trend reversal. If the backside of the trend line is higher than the last high, there is an 80% chance of a continued rally.

I'm new to forex trading (less than 30 days) and this forum any help would be great!