Thanks for the help, I'm still confused why more indiviuals use trend lines is it viewed as a sure bet to piggyback for a while if so then why not buy HKD at the bottom of its range. We all know the currency board keeps it between .75 and .85 just seems like a better bet.

Your right long term and short term traders have different approaches, how much should I weigh external economic events along with trend line trading???? Or do you have another analytical suggestion.

I think everyone develops a method that 'speaks' to them, perhaps technical only or fundamentals only or a blend....

I am personally not in favor of the news as a basis for trading....... I like my charts and trendlines....

The news definitely influences many traders......

There is not a 'right' way or a 'wrong' way. there is only the way that you feel comfortable. and that comes with a lot of trial and error and introspection..

Personally, I like to be aware as to what fibonacci is telling me on higher time frames, I use stochastics on my trading chart...... and I spend a lot of time on the weekends drawing trend lines, parallel trend lines... these activities force me to discern what is happening....

Drawing charts is a great way to get a feel for price..... marking up candlestick formations can give some excellent insights..... observing divergences can be revealing....

Hopefully that didn't muddy the waters.....

Hey everyone, so i've been trading on and off for about a year, and just recently i'm looking into more advanced mthods of trading instead of just based off news or gut feeling.

From the little that I've learned from so far from reading about learning about trend lines, it seems like its somewhat subjective, and that drawing lines is more of an art than a science.

What (hopefully more advanced/scientific) methods do you guys use when constructing your trend lines? THX!!

Indeed, trend lines are subjective...... and that means that you will have to experiment and draw a lot of lines to determine the ones that you want to use.

Brad has posted some very interesting lines with explanations...

You can also use parallel lines or the median line..

Practice marking charts. that is the only way to make the lines talk to you.

Skill in technical trading is developed by working with the charts, and it takes a lot of screen time to gain expertise in each area.....

article on trend lines

http://www.trading-naked.com/trendli..._trendline.htm

Both trand lines involve NZDJPY one is a long term scenario the other is a short term senario, which should I follow

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Ok so here goes. As we all know, every so often, the GBPJPY crashes down over a several-day long period. Maybe we can use these trend lines to predict the next one, and all make enough money to retire to some uninhabited island in the pacific. I was looking at the charts over the past year or so, and while looking for trends, noticed that the recent movements are very similar to the movements in late 2007. So I had drawn those lines, but am starting to think that maybe the green line is incorrect. Perhaps the overall trend is still heading downward, and the market it primed to crash down soon.

Let me know what you all think.

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I just finished 1st power course lesson offered by fxcm. And now I understand what you are saying. The course explained trend lines, fib, RSI, and Bollinger bands I learned a lot of great stuff. Your link was good but I decided that bollinger bands are the best because they involve statistics. It makes the entire trade feel more analytical by involving statistics. Do have any more suggestions that involve more analytical tools like bollinger bands.

Here's a monthly trend line to check out. If this break is real and it sure looks like it with the crack of the 23.6% Fibo line and the trendline, then we could see more losses in equities, which could translate into more losses for Carry Trades.

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Tom believe me the fundamentals of NZD are deterioateing and the carry trade that has supported the NZD is useless in times of uncertanty. So use the short term charts because of the data thats coming out soon, watch the Central Bank of New Zealand will cut by 50 when they meet.

The fundamentals for New Zealand certainly don't look very positive. There is a very neat downward-sloping channel on the daily chart. We advocated a short at the top of this channel on the last resistance test in our Candlestick weekly a couple of weeks back and took profit on a 300-pip move yesterday. We're at the bottom of the channel now, so we may see a pull-back in the short term. The next major support level is at 0.7437, a horizontal support that has held since September of last year. If we break that we can see a sell-off to the 0.71-0.72 area.

Ilya

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Price bars are where the action is...... and their relationship to the prior bar... ie, the open of this bar compared to the close of the prior bar, who was in control on this bar...bull or bear..... higher highs, higher lows. that indicates an uptrend... and lower high, lower low indicates a downtrend....

All of the indicators and tools are dependent on highs and lows.... from the individual bars..

Analysis has to be focused on the bars themselves......, my recommendation would be a thorough knowledge of Candlesticks. I am not so sure re Bollinger Bands as I have not studied them except to see compression periods with a view to expansions or breakouts.

Experience is going to be your best instructor, draw lines on charts, make theories and test them, make pics of charts, label them, keep for future reference....

My favorite indicators are stochastics and Macd, I have found some success with those.

I use a couple moving averages to show me trend and momentum (stochs do that also).

Again.. marking up charts is very much worth the time and effort...

My suggestion to you is to learn one setup for entry, master that one setup...... and use it exclusively until you can do it almost without seeing the chart (lol)....... keep your approach limited.. too much knowledge will confuse you, too much analysis will allow you to analyze...... and it will also destroy your trading....

Again. one setup........ they appear on all time frames......


Good luck...!!

Tom

You may want to have a long look at this setup...... as it appears on every instrument and in every time frame and is a very high probability set up.

http://www.dacharts.org/archives/2Xb...MOF3signal.htm

I use this, I have used it for three years..... and I have have found that it works every day.... I am mentioning this as I had referred to one setup and thought I would show you what I, personally rely on.


dave

market shows deep depression on weekly chart, non of we see weekly close above upper trend line.
comments are welcome.

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Thanks I think it will take me a while to figure this out. There is a lot of information and I'll definetely study it over the weekend. Check this chart out I used the RSI and it tells me that the EURUSD is over bought and should sell off in the near future. What do you think?