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07-07-2008, 02:45 PM
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1.5 or 1.6
I know its off topic, but since the USDs rally in the past week, I'm starting to wonder what's gonna happen next to the EURUSD. As you can see in the chart, the pair has been in a neat range for most of the year, and while everyone has seemed to think that the pair is more likely to hit 1.6 than 1.5, I'm not so sure anymore. If the price breaks the current resistance (black) line, and I know we're a ways away from that I'd look for it to go back down to 1.5... now that there's no more big news coming for awhile for either currency, maybe well see a sell off over the next few weeks.
Either way, up or down, any break of this current range should see the price go shooting away... which way do you think its gonna go??
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07-07-2008, 03:33 PM
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Moderator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeikinStoch
David,
The funny thing is that I used my USDCHF chart in another venue two days ago only to have another person mention the myopic nature of my support/resistance analysis using the exact same pattern that you used. Whoops! Anyhow, I should definately be using a wider perspective when analyzing these charting patterns.
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Yep, its a common mistake, and I am also guilty of this mistake as well. The method I find that works well with me is that looking at the monthly and weekly charts first, and then moving to more short-term charts. By doing this, I get a better feel of where the pair could be headed, and how the pair is actually performing in the long-run. It may seem a bit off to develop short-term strategies off of long-term strategies, but it definitely helps in finding where significant supports/resistances lie, and helps to see if the pair is nearing a top or bottom. |
07-08-2008, 08:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
EURCHF is presenting an opportunity on either side of the market right now... I was looking for price to stay inside the Bearish Channel Lines I have drawn for a short position.. But Price may break above the upper channel line, if it does bulls have control again and a long will be warranted  |
Check this out too... maybe it isn't headed for that resistance line. The stochastic just crossed 80, so a sell-off could be coming! |
07-09-2008, 03:24 AM
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Trend lines help on trading
Hey guys Im looking at the EUR/CHF. I am using a different time frame and i see a uptrend. When do you thing the sell off may occur ..?
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07-09-2008, 01:49 PM
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Eurchf
Quote:
Originally Posted by alfa10
Hey guys Im looking at the EUR/CHF. I am using a different time frame and i see a uptrend. When do you thing the sell off may occur ..?
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Now.
I embellished your chart a little, and added a few indicators which indicate a sell-off may be about to occur. The Mac-D line just crossed down, and it hit the bollinger band a few hours ago. I drew a resistance line parallel to your support, and though the price broke through it, it did come back down to within the range, which I believe signifies that the trend line is not broken. I think now would be a good time to short the EURCHF.
My one caution, however, is that I usually don't use charts smaller than dailies when looking from trends or utilizing tools like Mac-D. So if you're going to look at shorting this pair, make sure that you have proper money management tools (Stop losses, take profits, etc.) |
07-10-2008, 02:39 AM
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Eur/chf
I have 1h 10 days chart in front of me. I can draw the uptrend. the indicators support it as well. on top of that i see a cup and handle formation ...do you agree with me?
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07-10-2008, 05:10 AM
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Eur/chf
Hey pip proff,
Are up right now? You should see my predicted formation being created already.
This is one of the best cup and handles you will see for a while. Even in technical analysis book you cant find better. If you see from previous posting it was clear that was going to happen. Look at the MACD cross over signal it happened and the RSI was in uptrend.
Happy trading..!
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07-10-2008, 05:30 PM
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EURCHF again
Well your formation has formed... with a nice U and a handle... so now hopefully it will shoot up! Of course, there's only 1 more day in the trading week, yet with no news out of Switzerland or the EZ, i like the odds.
The support line you drew was broken, but the price has since moved back above it. The Mac-d crossed going up again, and the stochastic crossed a few hours ago.
Let's follow this for the next day or so and see what happens... exciting stuff!
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07-10-2008, 10:59 PM
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Many Scenarios for USDJPY
It seems as though there are two support lines now; the first turning into a resistance line. If the pair cracks through the second support line (where it meets up with the 14.6% Fib line then it should fall right through to the 38.2% Fib line?
The slow stochastic is turning towards the downside, signaling reversal (even if it may be temporary). I'm gonna go with this and target the 106.71 mark, followed by a period waiting and waiting. |
07-14-2008, 03:58 AM
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Trend lines help on trading
Many people today are predicting a short position on USD/JPY. I think that is wright. If you look at the MACD we just had a crossover bearish signal and RSI also is heading down. I will wait for the short trend line to be tested again....
Shorts may be the winners in the next 12 hours ...
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07-14-2008, 04:40 AM
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Trend lines are important on trading
I had to put a hold on my shorts.....I was carefully watching the trend line. If you read my previous reading you will see that I had that pointed out. On my chart is clear that the uptrend stays in force for now.
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07-14-2008, 02:06 PM
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ST vs LT
Quote:
Originally Posted by alfa10
I had to put a hold on my shorts.....I was carefully watching the trend line. If you read my previous reading you will see that I had that pointed out. On my chart is clear that the uptrend stays in force for now.
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Ok there's something I think you need to be aware of when analyzing these charts for trend lines... you're looking at too short of a time-frame. Trend line trading is not meant for 1 min, 5 min, or even hourly charts... its really designed for dailies and longer. Beyond trend lines, many of the indicators that you're using are also not meant for short-term analysis (day-trading), such as Mac-D, stochastics, RSI, etc. Maybe they can be used, but from what I've learned from reading, from courses through FXCM, and elsewhere, I would say to you that you need to be looking at longer-term charts.
With such short-term charts, random fluctuations can happen (due to news or just random flurries of trading) that can totally destroy your positions. If you're going to use tools designed for day-trading, then go get em. But I would strongly caution using tools meant for carry/swing trading in a day-trading strategy. Good luck!
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07-15-2008, 03:39 AM
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Gbp/usd
Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Looks like a breakout heading north on the 8 hour chart of CABLE... Bollinger Bands are split wide open and there is beautiful divergence on the MACD.. Stochastic is reading overbought but I would expect that before a breakout... The moving averages are confirming the up move as well... All go for longs..  |
Hey brad 1199.
Your call is in control as i speak. Longs are on the way up and the pair is trading at 2.0016 levels. I would appreciate it if you look over once more and try to figure out the price target on your long position... |
07-16-2008, 01:07 AM
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Broke to the downside!
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeikinStoch
It seems as though there are two support lines now; the first turning into a resistance line. If the pair cracks through the second support line (where it meets up with the 14.6% Fib line then it should fall right through to the 38.2% Fib line?
The slow stochastic is turning towards the downside, signaling reversal (even if it may be temporary). I'm gonna go with this and target the 106.71 mark, followed by a period waiting and waiting.
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USDJPY broke through both the second support and the 14.6% fib line. The next stop is 103.61(38.2 fib)! |
07-16-2008, 09:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pham_nams
Golden nuggets - Bollinger bands and EMA
Bollinger bands are very useful in determining price direction. You will notice that whenever the bands tighten, price explode out in a direction that is pretty much determined by the attitude of the 200 EMA.
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Thanks for the tip... any examples of trades to get into currently that fit the bill? You should post a chart so we can discuss this more! |
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