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Old 10-30-2009, 11:10 AM
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To MACD or Not to MACD that tis the question!

I opened a demo account last night and will be working on a new setup strategy I am happy with the outcome of most of my trades that I have made this week but think I can come up with something a little better. You know using the K.I.S.S method.

I have been doing a lot of reach on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) not Mc Donald’s even though an egg mc muffin sounds good about now.

So I am going to be working with the MACD next week in demo while I am still trading my old system in the live account. I will share my findings and what I have learned during the weeks to come.

Last night I did a couple of test on paper with just using the three signals MACD gives you and no other indicator. I would use other indicators to verify the signals but I am just testing the MACD for now.

Why I made the trade:
Working on the 60 minute chart:
MACD setting default – 12, 26, 9

I went long USD/CAD @ 1.06629– Reason the 12 day EMA had just crossed over the 26 day EMA, the histogram had just moved to positive even thought the candle was still showing to be a bear candle (Red on my chart).

I shorted the EUR/USD @ 1.48299 – Reason the Histogram was showing Negative Divergence even though the price was making still new highs the histogram was making new lows – the Histogram was the only signal showing price was going down the signal line had not crossed yet. I was only testing the histogram of the MACD.

I shorted the USD/JPY @ 91.314– Reason the 26 day crossed over the 12 day the histogram had just went into the negative area.

Results:
USD/CAD – at 7:00am it had moved up to 1.07144 it has since ran up about 100 pips – however this is not reliable test due to the news event.

EUR/USD – During the night the price went up to 1.48540 before moving down to 1.48060 at 7:00am. The histogram did tell me about a drop in price however it took 7 hours before it dropped.

USD/JPY – at 7:00am the pair had closed at 91.207 and the histogram was showing that the price was now moving back up.

Conclusion of last night’s test:
the first test results went good. However the MACD works better when there are two signals indicating that the price is going to change then just one but we all know that anyways or should lol.

This concludes the test of the MACD we will now take you back to your show all ready in progress

Tune in next week for more growling episodes of the MACD! – As I will sharing more exciting test results and information on the MACD. I will take you to the edge of the cliff but I will not push you over you may want to jump on your own after reading this lol…

Happy Trading
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Old 11-01-2009, 11:09 PM
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Journal Entry Sunday 11/1/09 @ 10:10pm CST:
Trade Plan for the week of 11/01/09 – 11/06/09

I am going to focus on the following pairs this week:
Trading Pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/JPY

Setup Charts: Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4Hour, 2hour, 1hour

Trading Charts: 4 hour, 2hour, 1hour, 15min

Lots Sizes: 1K – 5K

Indicators: MACD, RSI
MACD settings – 12,26,9
RSI Settings – 14
Signal Charts 1 hour

Trade Length: 1 hour – 8 hours - 1 day - 1 Week - 1 month

Current Trades:
11-01 EUR/USD – Long @ 1.47437 (For Asia/Europe session)
Reason for trade:
MACD 26EMA Crossed the 12 EMA, the histo-gram just moved over to the positive side and had closed one bar in positive. RSI is moving up as well. Since writing this the pair has moved up 10 pips so I have moved my stop up to break even + 1. Will see how this does in the morning.
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Old 11-01-2009, 11:19 PM
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Nice trade my friend. I shouldn't have read your post, you mentioning McDonald's is making me hungry, lol! I need to go to bed. I love trading on Sunday night as well. I have already entered a few nice positions also.
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Old 11-02-2009, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iceoverflow View Post
Nice trade my friend. I shouldn't have read your post, you mentioning McDonald's is making me hungry, lol! I need to go to bed. I love trading on Sunday night as well. I have already entered a few nice positions also.
LoL, Thanks it turned out to be pretty nice this morning thanks to the news lol....

I was hungry when I was writing that about the MACD every time I would write MACD I would think McDonalds’ lol....

I am working on a new System brining in the MACD I never used it much looked nice at the bottom of the chart lol.... but I would just see how the histogram was pointing and never made much out of it.

But after doing my home work this will be a nice tool to add to my trades and for the last few tests I will post the review in a sec it has been dang great!
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Old 11-04-2009, 05:32 PM
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Do you follow fundamentals my friend? I tend to know what is going on and combining with technicals get an overall view of the market.
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Old 11-06-2009, 05:04 PM
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Do you follow fundamentals my friend? I tend to know what is going on and combining with technicals get an overall view of the market.
Hello and how are you guys doing?

I agree, fundamentals give a clear (and necessary) awareness of whats cooking... But like all things, it takes time to set in.

With a sea of info out there, it can also be quite confusing at times...

But still, I try to absorb as much as I can, lol...
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Old 11-09-2009, 11:16 AM
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Do to being under the weather last week I did not do much trading. Last night I went long EUR/USD and AUS/USD. Still not 100% I may not do to much trading this week until I get the cob webs out of the old head....

Last night all the indicators showed for great entries on both the EUR/USD and AUS/USD so i took long positions in both. MACD on the daily is just about to cross into the positive plus we had a signal line cross. Plan on staying in these trades until I am stopped since I am not feel too well.. in profit on both so not a big deal if I get stopped out.

Happy Trading
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Old 11-10-2009, 11:28 AM
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I pulled my stops up to far last night and got stopped out this morning for EUR/USD = 100 pips. AUS/USD = 50.pips. I really do not see anything exciting this morning so I am going to wait and watch. Looks like most of the majors that I am trading this week are in a range bound at this time. Just will continue to wait until I get my signals no need to rush as the market will come to me soon enough.
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Old 11-10-2009, 01:37 PM
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YAWN! Nothing yet lol...
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Old 11-10-2009, 02:22 PM
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I have placed a entry order on the EUR/USD @ 1.4972 this is right above the 32% Fibb level, We have a nice wedge forming that is normal a good sign of a break out brewing. MACD signals lines are about to cross and the Histogram is about to move positive. Working off the 30min chart. SSI states that -1.61 are hold short positions. So I think this will be a great spot to go long. Only time will tell

UPDATE:
Entry got triggered and I have now moved my stop to break even. I am just waiting to see what happens now.

UPDATE #2:
Price moved up 30 pips. I closed the trade manualy. Reason why I closed the Trade: I can not explain some reason something did not feel right and decided to take profit at 30 pips.
Price pulled back 20 pips once I closed the trade but has since started rolling the Bolder backup the hill.... lol...
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Last edited by fxmicroman; 11-10-2009 at 09:58 PM..
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Old 11-11-2009, 11:48 AM
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I have no trades open this morning…. Nothing looks to appealing to me… Think I will move down to 5 min chart and try my hand in a little scalping may pickup a few pips here and there…. until something deveolpes, We will see…

Happy Trading
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Old 11-17-2009, 11:08 AM
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This week I am only going to trading one Pair the EUR/USD as I have a cold that I cannot seem to shake. I traded a little Sunday well I guess I should say I donated some of the winnings back on Sunday lol…. I did not take any trades yesterday. Last night I took a trade in the EUR/USD because all the indicators where screaming at me to short.

Working off the 2 hour chart:
MACD signals had crossed and the histogram had went negative
SSD just crossed the 80 to the down side
RSI was just crossing the 50 and moving down
CCI was just crossing the -100 and moving down.

I figured if all the indicators said short I guess I would do so. So I took a short position @ 1.49488 as of right now I am up 110.9 pips. We have come to the 50% Fib retracement level on the 2 hour chart @ 1.4870 this level has already held the pair once on 11-12 if it can break this level we may see further falls.

I will be watching this pair as the day unfolds. But as for now this is the only trade I have on the board.

Happy Trading
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Old 11-17-2009, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by fxmicroman View Post
This week I am only going to trading one Pair the EUR/USD as I have a cold that I cannot seem to shake. I traded a little Sunday well I guess I should say I donated some of the winnings back on Sunday lol…. I did not take any trades yesterday. Last night I took a trade in the EUR/USD because all the indicators where screaming at me to short.

Working off the 2 hour chart:
MACD signals had crossed and the histogram had went negative
SSD just crossed the 80 to the down side
RSI was just crossing the 50 and moving down
CCI was just crossing the -100 and moving down.

I figured if all the indicators said short I guess I would do so. So I took a short position @ 1.49488 as of right now I am up 110.9 pips. We have come to the 50% Fib retracement level on the 2 hour chart @ 1.4870 this level has already held the pair once on 11-12 if it can break this level we may see further falls.

I will be watching this pair as the day unfolds. But as for now this is the only trade I have on the board.

Happy Trading
Good call! Yes if all the indicators that you are using are screaming short, I would totally go for it. I shorted eur.usd as well around your price too =)
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Old 11-18-2009, 01:35 PM
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Well, can you say DUH!!!!! Lol… I let my trade in the EUR/USD run yesterday and last night instead of taking profit and guess what I went from 100+ pips to about +5 pips… During the day the pair was inching its way back up to the 0.382 Fib level for that day’s drop when it finally got there last night it stalled and started moving back down around 8:00pm CST. I figured it would drop back down and move lower. So I turned off the old monitor and called it a night.

Well when I woke up this morning to check the trade I was expecting to be up 1000 pips “No not a typo” lol… and found I was stopped out for a gain of 5 pips…. I guess +5 is better than -5…

So what went wrong?
As I looked at the daily chart since Monday we were making lower lows and lower highs so I was looking for a continual of price moving down. As we know the price moved back up this morning. So this tells me that the up-trend may have shifted to moving sideways in a range. So I will need to make changes to my trading plan and adjust my exit strategy or move on to another pair.

Looking at the times as to when the EUR/USD moves looks to be during the Europe session. So I am going to be looking for entries during the Asian session to run over nigh with an exit strategy of closing the trades after 10:30 U.S. session. For the remainder of this week.

With a re-evaluation next Sunday… On the market
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Old 11-19-2009, 10:54 AM
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Well last night as I had planned I went short EUR/USD during the Asian session I did not get in the market where I would have liked to but I did not want to rush in without any indicators telling me to do so. I would have liked to entered into the market @ 1.49613 however with no indicator telling me to do so I waited finally about 8:00 pm CST I got my signals so I took a short position @ 1.49186, Measuring the moves for Tuesday and Wednesday. I determined that my entry spot would only be good for about 60 pip gain if the market continued do as it did the days before. So with that in mind I placed my stop loss only 15 pips back and a limit order 65 pips I never really use a limit orders but figured we may have a turnaround before I could get to my trading station.

Working from 2 hour chart:
MACD Signal lines Crossing and Histogram about to move to the negative
SSD moving across 80.00 over bought down
CCI was moving down to the -100
RSI was moving down below the 50

However this morning when I got to the trading station my limit had be triggered and looking at the charts this morning on 5 minute chart we are in a small range and very choppy so I am glad I am out of this trade this morning.

Will continue to wait and see what develops this morning.
No chart this morning....
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