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10-13-2009, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Yes.
Fundamentally you can look at it from two perspectives...
Every ~30 years the Dow will equal the price of gold.
ie 10,000 gold, 10,000 dow. Or 6000 gold 6000 dow.
The second perspective is even more fundamental...
In the early 80s when gold ran to $850/oz, it ran to the exact price that balanced out the US Account deficit.
If you take all the US gold reserves (in oz) * gold price = US Trade Deficit (edit)
If you do the math on those numbers, it puts gold north of $10,000, that's what happend in the 80s. Same thing goes now.
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speculator, you bring about some interesting points here.
Yeah, gold jumped to another all time high today: $1,068.50. Wow!
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10-14-2009, 08:47 AM
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Here we go...
Price is slowing down a bit here...one more push higher? 1077-1089...
Sneaky suspicion (high probability) wave v ended in a diagonal ...with a gann line failure.
Scaling has changed a bit on gann, 360 in time and 180 in price now. I'll prob keep this ratio.
Last edited by speculator84; 10-14-2009 at 08:56 AM..
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10-14-2009, 09:13 AM
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Here's a look at the move as whole (not just wave 3).
Same gann box (extended 360 in price , 720 in time) shift back to the left from the wave 5 bottom.
Wave 4 is too short for my liking.
But for the most part the pullback is coming...
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10-14-2009, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Here's a look at the move as whole (not just wave 3).
Same gann box (extended 360 in price , 720 in time) shift back to the left from the wave 5 bottom.
Wave 4 is too short for my liking.
But for the most part the pullback is coming...
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Yeah, commodities have continued to pick up steam and the dollar continues to plummet. Wow!
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10-15-2009, 06:10 AM
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Movin down...
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10-15-2009, 07:26 AM
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I've convinced gold is the leader in this trend. Gold is leading the way up and down. Gold failed to make a new high with the eur and chf....and a few hours later...short squeeze. Oh man...gimmie 1030 gold!!
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10-15-2009, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
I've convinced gold is the leader in this trend. Gold is leading the way up and down. Gold failed to make a new high with the eur and chf....and a few hours later...short squeeze. Oh man...gimmie 1030 gold!!
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From your chart, it looks as though we could be headed there.
How accurate have you found the Elliott Wave counts to be on Advanced Get?
Also, you ought to post these EW charts in other forums more too on currencies. We'd love to see more of them. Great stuff.
Oil breaking to new recent highs...above $75 resistance.
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Last edited by Sean Hyman; 10-15-2009 at 11:52 AM..
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10-15-2009, 12:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
From your chart, it looks as though we could be headed there.
How accurate have you found the Elliott Wave counts to be on Advanced Get?
Also, you ought to post these EW charts in other forums more too on currencies. We'd love to see more of them. Great stuff.
Oil breaking to new recent highs...above $75 resistance.
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Alot of people ask how accurate it is...or finding the right count. I studied elliot wave before using aget and in the end I realized it didn't matter. The mechanical count is accurate 80% of the time. It doesn't do a-b-c-d-e and will probably miss an irregular correction, or label a corrective correction as 1-2-3-4-5. But if you under stand elliot wave, you know how you can count a minute corrective as 1-5.
I just want high probability setups, don't care what the real count is.
But for knowing whether your generally in a wave 3 (or 3) or wave 5 it's awesome.
I found that it turns into a battle of wills when you post wave counts, I used to post lots of aget more than a year ago, but it turned people messaging me about what to do or not do and the software sucks and what not.
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10-15-2009, 03:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Alot of people ask how accurate it is...or finding the right count. I studied elliot wave before using aget and in the end I realized it didn't matter. The mechanical count is accurate 80% of the time. It doesn't do a-b-c-d-e and will probably miss an irregular correction, or label a corrective correction as 1-2-3-4-5. But if you under stand elliot wave, you know how you can count a minute corrective as 1-5.
I just want high probability setups, don't care what the real count is.
But for knowing whether your generally in a wave 3 (or 3) or wave 5 it's awesome.
I found that it turns into a battle of wills when you post wave counts, I used to post lots of aget more than a year ago, but it turned people messaging me about what to do or not do and the software sucks and what not.
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haha, true. Well, you'll find that the EW forum is a stronger opinionated forum overall. They battle it out quite often in there...but are usually friends at the end of the day too. hehe!
Yeah, I love seeing the counts on the software. I don't fully trust my own wave counts but know what they're saying when they do the counts..or when others do. The software looks good though.
Yeah, I'd just be looking for the end of waves 2 and 4 in an uptrend so that I would be positioned for 3's and 5's within the uptrend.
Then I'd get in on a B corrective wave after the 5 and A completed so that I have a high probability entry and I'm with the trend too. That's how I'd do wave counts if I fully trusted my counts.
I'm a veteran at trading forex and stocks, etc. Know technicals and fundamentals like the back of my hand...but still somewhat newer to EW. Read Prechter's book.
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10-15-2009, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
haha, true. Well, you'll find that the EW forum is a stronger opinionated forum overall. They battle it out quite often in there...but are usually friends at the end of the day too. hehe!
Yeah, I love seeing the counts on the software. I don't fully trust my own wave counts but know what they're saying when they do the counts..or when others do. The software looks good though.
Yeah, I'd just be looking for the end of waves 2 and 4 in an uptrend so that I would be positioned for 3's and 5's within the uptrend.
Then I'd get in on a B corrective wave after the 5 and A completed so that I have a high probability entry and I'm with the trend too. That's how I'd do wave counts if I fully trusted my counts.
I'm a veteran at trading forex and stocks, etc. Know technicals and fundamentals like the back of my hand...but still somewhat newer to EW. Read Prechter's book.
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Actually, the real secret is, wave 5 and wave A. Waves 1,2,3,4 are all way to unpredictable! The probability goes through the rough on a trend continuation (5) and trend reversal counts (A)!
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10-16-2009, 12:10 AM
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GOLD
A Monthly Gold Chart I Would Like To Share --->
Sorry about the size... If the chart shows too big for your screen, click your internet browser refresh button and the chart should shrink down to regular size for viewing....
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10-16-2009, 12:11 AM
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OIL
Here are some OiL charts I've posted in the past and a new one to update....
The first chart shows the long term elliott wave structure in play with the price line extended to show future price action..
The second chart shows the low at 40.00 ---
The third chart is a new updated chart...
$200 A Barrel Anyone ????
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10-16-2009, 06:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
A Monthly Gold Chart I Would Like To Share --->
Sorry about the size... If the chart shows too big for your screen, click your internet browser refresh button and the chart should shrink down to regular size for viewing....
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Hi Brad, so are you looking at a drop in Gold to 600+ levels or ?? |
10-16-2009, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by etarkum
Hi Brad, so are you looking at a drop in Gold to 600+ levels or ??
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etarkum, just wanted to say "welcome" and thanks for posting here.
I'm sure Brad will be responding later...but yes, looks like his Wave C projects down to around $675 give or take a bit.
I'm sure he'll have more to add on this since it's his chart.
His charts are clean and clear. That's what I love about them.
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10-16-2009, 01:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
etarkum, just wanted to say "welcome" and thanks for posting here.
I'm sure Brad will be responding later...but yes, looks like his Wave C projects down to around $675 give or take a bit.
I'm sure he'll have more to add on this since it's his chart.
His charts are clean and clear. That's what I love about them.
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Respectfully, like the USD there isn't a snowballs chance in hell that gold falls to $675  |
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