Trend of the Day - Page 103 - DailyFX Forex Forum

Gregory McLeod · #**1531** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg, Good morning, Hope all is fine. Came out good on that GbpUsd she eventually hit my trailing stop but I got about 120 pips on her and still keeping an eye. Question: Based on Tom Longs thinking. It is good to see the SSI report on a pair get to at least 3 to 1. long or short. Time has shown me tat this is a conservative approach which is fine because even then I have seen price go against that. However I am interested in your approach. since I have seen you go with much lower figures. I am not trying to play you against Tom, just trying to expand my knowledge base by understanding the two approaches.

I like ringing the register as often and as quick as I can. So, if I can get out with a 2:1 and price starts hanging around to long, I cash out as opposed to letting a profit vanish. But GBPCAD was one I should have had a little patience.

Gregory McLeod · #**1532** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 01:03 PM

Retail traders are 4.66:1 long USD/JPY. The daily trend remains down though price has bounced from the 89.17 support area but is finding resistance at the 89.50 zone. Price may break higher and gains capped in the 90.00-90.50 area. Look for the 88.12 area to come into focus over the next few days.

Kimaki · #**1533** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 02:03 PM

Greg, if you still there, That EurUsd over 100% Fib retrace, looks like that could be great support SSD crossed and just approaching the 20 line. That bounce could giv her enough legs to get to 1.504 or reverse further to the support trend line at 1.4750. What do you think? H2 chart attached.

Missing · #**1534** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 03:47 PM

EUR/GBP has reached the 61.8 Fibo retracement on the daily chart from the 6th August low to the 13th October high, which happens to be right on the 100 day SMA. Its difficult to say if its a downtrend or a correction of the uptrend, we shall see.

Not much on the MACD or Stochastics but its a level worth keeping an eye on and may be worth a long term trade with a tight stop that has a good risk to reward.

Gregory McLeod · #**1535** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 05:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg, if you still there, That EurUsd over 100% Fib retrace, looks like that could be great support SSD crossed and just approaching the 20 line. That bounce could giv her enough legs to get to 1.504 or reverse further to the support trend line at 1.4750. What do you think? H2 chart attached.

It did not quite get to the 61.8% but I agree with your analysis. Euro may make a go to the 15231 area as it has been in a long range between 14623 to 1.5061 area. The 100% retracement is the same as a Double Bottom so the conservative target is your 1.5004 area. Nice job!

Gregory McLeod · #**1536** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 05:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Missing

EUR/GBP has reached the 61.8 Fibo retracement on the daily chart from the 6th August low to the 13th October high, which happens to be right on the 100 day SMA. Its difficult to say if its a downtrend or a correction of the uptrend, we shall see.

Not much on the MACD or Stochastics but its a level worth keeping an eye on and may be worth a long term trade with a tight stop that has a good risk to reward.

Good analysis. I can see slight positive Stochastic Divergence as well as positive MACD Histogram divergence. There are some other good points as well. Price is trading near the 200 SMA and if the candle closes as it is or better, we would have a Bullish Engulfing candlestick reversal pattern near whole number (00) support. See my attached chart:

Kimaki · #**1537** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 05:55 AM

Thanks Greg, you are a great confidence booster, however believe it or not I did not get in. The SSI report was so low I was hesitant. I may have to wait for her to break above the 1.5049 area or retrace again. On the other side however, I got a good enter short UsdCad and is now up 96 pips and I have taken some off the top and gone to BE already. Also in short UsdJpy but she has me worried.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

It did not quite get to the 61.8% but I agree with your analysis. Euro may make a go to the 15231 area as it has been in a long range between 14623 to 1.5061 area. The 100% retracement is the same as a Double Bottom so the conservative target is your 1.5004 area. Nice job!

Gregory McLeod · #**1538** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 06:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Thanks Greg, you are a great confidence booster, however believe it or not I did not get in. The SSI report was so low I was hesitant. I may have to wait for her to break above the 1.5049 area or retrace again. On the other side however, I got a good enter short UsdCad and is now up 96 pips and I have taken some off the top and gone to BE already. Also in short UsdJpy but she has me worried.

Believe it or not, that report threw me off as well as I was long and just took 30 pips when it started hesitating. I am in it now at 14952 so we will see how that goes. 96 pips is good days work!

Gregory McLeod · #**1539** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 06:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Good analysis. I can see slight positive Stochastic Divergence as well as positive MACD Histogram divergence. There are some other good points as well. Price is trading near the 200 SMA and if the candle closes as it is or better, we would have a Bullish Engulfing candlestick reversal pattern near whole number (00) support. See my attached chart:

Since we do not have strong indicators to confirm a trade, drawing a Regression Channel on the current downswing and looking to buy the break above the upper line with a stop below the low would be one method of allowing Price "tell" us when to enter.

Kimaki · #**1540** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 06:15 AM

I am confused, EurGbp is in an uptrend? I was looking at it as a downtrend.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Good analysis. I can see slight positive Stochastic Divergence as well as positive MACD Histogram divergence. There are some other good points as well. Price is trading near the 200 SMA and if the candle closes as it is or better, we would have a Bullish Engulfing candlestick reversal pattern near whole number (00) support. See my attached chart:

Gregory McLeod · #**1541** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

I am confused, EurGbp is in an uptrend? I was looking at it as a downtrend.

Technically, it is making lower daily swing highs and lower swing lows which makes it a downtrend. However, it is at or slightly above the 200 SMA and hasn't broken through the June lows. If EUR/GBP got to the top of the channel and turned down, then we would continue to look to short it. On the other hand, a break above the channel would put the downtrend in question. This is a situation in which we would put at the bottom of our watch list.

Kimaki · #**1542** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 07:08 AM

Great explanation Greg, it helps in understanding the conditions before us. Thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Technically, it is making lower daily swing highs and lower swing lows which makes it a downtrend. However, it is at or slightly above the 200 SMA and hasn't broken through the June lows. If EUR/GBP got to the top of the channel and turned down, then we would continue to look to short it. On the other hand, a break above the channel would put the downtrend in question. This is a situation in which we would put at the bottom of our watch list.

Gregory McLeod · #**1543** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Great explanation Greg, it helps in understanding the conditions before us. Thanks.

You are welcome. On the other hand, the Euro has taken a tumble with CPI unchanged and Building Permits are down. With the U.S. stock market open in 13 minutes, a lot can happen.

Kimaki · #**1544** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 08:31 AM

Hey Greg, I was not happy with the way UsdJpy is going so I got out, think I got in too early. Tell me, assuming that price does not get to the 90.00 region, what would be the alternative, a break below 88.964 or 88.722???

Gregory McLeod · #**1545** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Hey Greg, I was not happy with the way UsdJpy is going so I got out, think I got in too early. Tell me, assuming that price does not get to the 90.00 region, what would be the alternative, a break below 88.964 or 88.722???

Yes. USD/JPY needs to break below the 88.72. This retracement could take it up to 89.94. This pair is not cooperating with any speed.