Trend of the Day - Page 2

Gregory McLeod · #16 (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 06:57 AM

After Friday's monster 400 pip+ move, GBP/USD runs into stiff resistance at the 50% Fibonacci resistance level of the 1.8795 high -1.7433 low swing. A nice indecision doji candle at 1.8114 and the bearish resolution candle at this level is added confirmation. Look for the September 11th low of 1.7433 to be revisited. If price breaks below the 1.7433 area we could see 1.7059 and 1.6585. Only a close above the 1.8200 area would nullify this otherwise bearish scenario.

Gregory McLeod · #17 (**permalink**) 09-16-2008, 09:55 AM

After hitting all time high on September 4th at .8141, EUR/GBP pulled back to the .7900 area on profit taking. Placing stops just below this area gives us a good trading opportunity to buy support in an uptrend with good money management. EUR/GBP is currently at .7972 and daily Stochastic is oversold.

Gregory McLeod · #18 (**permalink**) 09-18-2008, 08:28 AM

NZD/JPY daily trend has been downhill since the middle of July. After hitting multi-year lows in the 67.28 area, NZD/JPY has rallied to the 70.83 area the 50 % Fibonacci retracement from the September 8th high of 74.57 to the September 16th low at 67.21.

Gregory McLeod · #19 (**permalink**) 09-19-2008, 07:28 AM

Evening Star Candlestick Pattern at 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance suggests a continuation of the down trend. Stochastic and MACD are rolling over showing the weakening of this counter trend rally. The old September 11th low of 1.7444 is in sight to be retested before moving lower.

Gregory McLeod · #20 (**permalink**) 09-22-2008, 11:29 PM

A huge rally in the EUR/USD of over 300 pips did not spill over to other Euro based crosses like the EUR/NZD which posted over a 400 pip move in Monday trading. EUR/NZD has not suffered the massive correction that its siblings, EURJPY and EUR/USD. Rather it has been in a strong up trend since the beginning of March 2008. Economic troubles loom in New Zealand that could prompt a cut in the overnight lending rate from 7.5% to 7%. This would narrow the interest rate spread between the two currencies and further push EUR/NZD higher. Look for this pair to challenge the 2.2000 area in the coming days.

bernbeach · #21 (**permalink**) 09-23-2008, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Evening Star Candlestick Pattern at 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance suggests a continuation of the down trend. Stochastic and MACD are rolling over showing the weakening of this counter trend rally. The old September 11th low of 1.7444 is in sight to be retested before moving lower.

What happened? GBPUSD trades @ 8579?????

Gregory McLeod · #22 (**permalink**) 09-23-2008, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernbeach

What happened? GBPUSD trades @ 8579?????

The dollar was the world's punching bag as investors weighed the effects on a $700 billion financial system bailout and decided to sell dollars. We did breach the 1.82 area which was my line in the sand which I mentioned in an earlier post. Cable strength has been contained at the 78.6% (1.8514) Fibonacci resistance level with closing prices at the level and wicks slightly above. Daily Stochastics is oversold and a retrace is in the cards. There are 4 Fibonacci Resistance Levels and we can't always be sure which one will hold. Thanks for your response. I appreciate the interest and feedback!
See the attached chart.

Gregory McLeod · #23 (**permalink**) 09-24-2008, 06:49 AM

Our trend for the day is NZD/USD. Known affectionately by traders as the Kiwi Dollar, its recent multi-month downtrend was interrupted by an over 400 pip counter trend rally from the 2008 all-time low of .6440. The daily down trend seems to have caught its breath and is ready to take the Kiwi lower. Resistance found at the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level of the 0.7210-0.6440 swing high-low has re-ignited the move south.

See the attached chart:

Gregory McLeod · #24 (**permalink**) 09-29-2008, 09:06 AM

Our trend for the day is USD/SGD. The US dollar up trend from the middle of July from the 1.3458 area up to the 1.4482 September 11th high has fallen some 240 pips before finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Marked by a bullish Harami pattern, USD/SGD looks to re-challenge the 14482 level. Extreme dollar bearish sentiment could recoil this pair higher if and when the $700 billion financial system bailout is approved.

Trend of the Day: USD/SGD

Gregory McLeod · #25 (**permalink**) 09-29-2008, 09:08 AM

Our trend for the day is GBP/AUD. The daily uptrend that has been in effect since the end of July took it some 2700 fom 2.0394 to the September 18 high of 2.3132. A 10 day pull back from the high finds GBP/AUD consolidating at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. A very tight pennant is forming in this zone. Pennants in an uptrend tend to break north. A revisit to earlier September highs in the 2.3100 area could be forthcoming. This is a very volatile pair so trade with care.

Trend of the Day:GBP/AUD

Gregory McLeod · #26 (**permalink**) 09-29-2008, 02:14 PM

On 9/22/08, I pointed out that the GBP/USD was finding it tough going through the 1.8514 level which is the 78.6% retracement of the 1.8807-1.7435 swing high to swing low. The currency pair managed to push 130 pips higher in the form of a blow-off top before closing back near the fib level. A 480 pip decline ensued to the 1.8055 level. The long wick on the 9/25 would have taken out conservative stops just above this area.

Placing a higher stop just above 1.8799 would have shielded a trader from the volatile price swings that occurred before the actual drop. Sometimes we have to reduce position size in order to afford a wider stop in a volatile market to take advantage of a sizeable gain.

Gregory McLeod · #27 (**permalink**) 10-01-2008, 11:45 PM

Kiwi is showing strength against the Aussie since the end of July 2008. This downtrend has formed a neat and predictable downward sloping channel. AUD/NZD hit a new 3-day low on Wednesday, a new 3 week low, and a new low for the month of September-all bearish confirmation signals. Though this pair is in a strong downtrend, daily Stochastics is in the oversold area and price is near support at the bottom of its descending channel which means that we could have a short covering rally up to the top of the channel in the near term. As traders, we want to sell at or near resistance and take profits at support. Resistance is in the 1.2160 area.

Gregory McLeod · #28 (**permalink**) 10-06-2008, 12:18 AM

This was originally printed in Daily FX Weekly Trading Lesson:
Trend of the Day: EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is at the psychological 1.3900 area and has briefly poked below it only to rise back above. The daily trend remains down and we look to trade in the direction of this trend.With NonFarm payroll announcement and the House vote on the Paulson bailout plan, the EUR/USD could see further losses to the 1.3600 and 1.3244 area. The dollar has been acting as a safe haven currency as investors demand dollars to by US Treasuries. A close below the 1.3900 support would be a short signal.

Gregory McLeod · #29 (**permalink**) 10-06-2008, 12:21 AM

Aussie CAD continues its steady march lower. Most Australian banks are closed in observance of Labour Day. This has created low liquidity during the Sydney Forex session earlier and some sharp overnight moves. Traders continue to sell this pair with the Daily trend pointing down. The pair trades below its 200 SMA and though Daily oscillators are oversold, they can remain oversold while prices continue to make fresh lows. Support comes at channel support found in the .8000 area.

Gregory McLeod · #30 (**permalink**) 10-07-2008, 01:26 AM

As the global credit markets froze and stock markets dropped, the Yen was a big winner against the beleaguered Aussie dollar. Market risk aversion caused the AUD/JPY to drop over 1000 pips from the high of 81.20 to a low of 70.27. A late session rally caused prices to retrace some 400 pips to close at 73.49. The daily trend had been down since the end of July and Daily oscillators are oversold. The RBA rate cut to 6.00 supports lower prices as well. Look for a break of the 70.27 low to signify the continuation of this bearish trend.