Trend of the Day - Page 31

Gregory McLeod · #**451** (**permalink**) 05-26-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Hi Greg, hope you enjoyed your long weekend, I myself enjoyed beautiful Caribbean Days. I assume that with this AUD/CHF pair it is expected that we drop to a lower time frame and look for those buy signals from SSD and MACD that then puts us just around or above the two day high and allow us to place stops below totays low which by then will be aroound 97 pips?

I am well. I hope you had a good weekend as well. That setup sounds like a plan. AUD/CHF seems pretty buoyant today bouncing off of a daily trend line.

Gregory McLeod · #**452** (**permalink**) 05-26-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luigi.forex

Thank you Gregory, this checklist is very usefull

You are very welcome.

Gregory McLeod · #**453** (**permalink**) 05-26-2009, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg, this old girl has me concerned. Within recent days the USD/JPY seems to be hung up going sideways

. She has retraced some since the head & shoulder pattern, but the stochastics remain very oversold while the MACD has been in a steady descend below the zero line. I have two possitions here at around 94.575 and stop at 118 pips just above 61% fib line. The question is, has her outlook changed from your prospective? are the bears still in this game?

The North Korean missile launches have momentarily weakened the USD/JPY. The overall trend is down however it may work its way higher.

Gregory McLeod · #**454** (**permalink**) 05-26-2009, 02:06 PM

The Australian dollar looks determined to go higher. The 8530 area is the next level of resistance with stops just below the daily swing low.

Gregory McLeod · #**455** (**permalink**) 05-28-2009, 06:41 AM

Yen weakness due to North Korean saber rattling continues to move Aussie Yen higher. Look for it to take out the May 11th high at 76.14 on its way to the 81.26 levels which was Sept 2008 support. There does not seem to be much in the way of this pair. Drop to a 4-hour chart to find better money management opportunities. Below May 26th 4-hour low of 73.77 would be the most likely place to place a stop.

Gregory McLeod · #**456** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 07:31 AM

The Dollar is in full retreat with Kiwi Dollar leading the charge higher. A break above the October 14th 2008 high of .6345 opens up the .7000 area.

cprao · #**457** (**permalink**) 05-30-2009, 01:27 PM

Thank you Greg for all your posts. This is really wonderful. Do you still have the opinion that AUDUSD determined to touch .8500 area ? It has been up by 150-200 pips since your last post on this pair.

Gregory McLeod · #**458** (**permalink**) 05-31-2009, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cprao

Thank you Greg for all your posts. This is really wonderful. Do you still have the opinion that AUDUSD determined to touch .8500 area ? It has been up by 150-200 pips since your last post on this pair.

You are more than welcome. We are here to help traders trade well and we are very glad when we do! There is no significant resistance until the September 22, 2008 high of .8518. This leaves a lot of room to run. If you look at a daily chart, the Aussie dollar fell from last years highs very quickly without many pauses or retraces. It would only hold true that on the way back up the Aussie dollar would move rather easily back up.

Gregory McLeod · #**459** (**permalink**) 05-31-2009, 08:43 PM

The Trend of the Day - USD/CHF

Look to sell the bull-trap rally up to the 1.1000 handle near the resistance downtrend line. Look to target the 1.05000 area. Avoid buying a false bottom here. The FXCM SSI indicator is extremely bearish as retail traders attempt to pick a bottom. Wait for a bearish reversal candlestick pattern at resistance to place shorts.

Gregory McLeod · #**460** (**permalink**) 06-02-2009, 07:03 AM

The Trend of the Day - EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY has successfully broke out of its bearish downtrend channel and has made higher highs and higher lows. However, after running into resistance at 137.39, the old April 6th high, EUR/JPY still looks strong enough to break through and take out the October 14th high of 141.72. Dropping down to a 4-hour chart we can possibly find a better entry in the 132.50-134.00 area. Or wait for a break above 138.00 to enter long with stops just below 136.00.

Gregory McLeod · #**461** (**permalink**) 06-03-2009, 09:28 AM

Trend may take a break at this point as it appears over-extended. However, it is risky to trade against such a strong daily trend. Look to buy any pullbacks to the daily trend line in the area of 1.5466 to 1.5800 for a push to the October 20, 2008 highs in the vicinity of the 1.7471 area.

jcole252 · #**462** (**permalink**) 06-03-2009, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Trend may take a break at this point as it appears over-extended. However, it is risky to trade against such a strong daily trend. Look to buy any pullbacks to the daily trend line in the area of 1.5466 to 1.5800 for a push to the October 20, 2008 highs in the vicinity of the 1.7471 area.

A pullback to around 1.58 would not negate the daily uptrend, but if the price were to go down to the 1.5466 area, wouldn’t we have lower highs and lower lows on the way, which would turn the uptrend into a downtrend? And thus around 1.5466 we should be looking to sell instead of buy? Or would the non-accelerated trend line trump the new downtrend on the daily chart? I understand the basic concepts, but sometimes get confused in applying them. Thank you.

Gregory McLeod · #**463** (**permalink**) 06-04-2009, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcole252

A pullback to around 1.58 would not negate the daily uptrend, but if the price were to go down to the 1.5466 area, wouldn’t we have lower highs and lower lows on the way, which would turn the uptrend into a downtrend? And thus around 1.5466 we should be looking to sell instead of buy? Or would the non-accelerated trend line trump the new downtrend on the daily chart? I understand the basic concepts, but sometimes get confused in applying them. Thank you.

If we get a push lower to the 1.5466 area that would be a lower swing low, however we would also need a lower swing high after that move to establish a down trend. While a currency pair is in an uptrend, it is not moving in a straight line upward. Rather it creates peaks and valleys along the way in more of a stair-step pattern higher. This pull back could be just another pullback just like the previous ones.

Gregory McLeod · #**464** (**permalink**) 06-04-2009, 07:41 AM

Like its close relative, GBPUSD, Pound Yen looks due for a rest after a phenomenal up move. Look for a retrace back toward the trend line in the 150.00 area to enter long in the direction of the trend. Trading against the trend could be profitable but extremely risky and not recommended.

Kimaki · #**465** (**permalink**) 06-04-2009, 10:29 AM

Hi Greg, how are you? Chatter has been quite low on the forum these days I guess you are very busy, don't over do it. Question looking back on four previous trends, three seem to be doing a retrace, tell me what you think: NZD/USD retracing to 0.61329 about 61% on Fib. AUD/JPY retracing to 74.455 just before 61 % on Fib. AUD/USD retracing to 0.78671 50% on Fib. The triple question mark though is the EUR/JPY ???. she seems to have been going sideways and not wherei want her to go LOL.