Trend of the Day - Page 4

Gregory McLeod · #46 (**permalink**) 10-31-2008, 12:40 AM

The bullish EURUSD rally against the downtrend seems to be weakening as bears look to regain control and drive prices downward. The pair’s inability to hold onto the 1.3000 handle confirms this. Possible selling opportunities occur near channel resistance with a stop just above the13302 high or a break below the 1.2335 support zone to enter short. Look for EURUSD to tag the 1.1600 area.

Rbob56 · #47 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The AUD/USD has a strong daily down trend that currently rallying up to a resistance channel line. In a downtrend we look to sell at or near resistance while the crowd tries to pick a bottom in this pair.

See the attached chart:

Greg,
Hello New to Forex and presently in the Power Course.
I hope to make myself clear here.
So far, I hear the instructors say trade the trend, start with a daily chart to see the behavior of the Currency you are viewing then you could fine tune down to a 4h or possibly a 1 hr chart.
I this example you have shown I would be hesitant to go short, Being the New guy I would be thinking the downtrend has run out and I probably might try to go long.
I would like to know more about trend reversals and to properly recognize such.
In your example,
If the price broke thru the resistance, How long would it take to confirm that the downtrend in this case, has ceased.
Is it a few days on a daily chart.
This is a key to me to get a better understanding of trading the trend and knowing when to recognize the trend reversal.

I hope I made myself somewhat clear.
Thank you

Gregory McLeod · #48 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rbob56

Greg,
Hello New to Forex and presently in the Power Course.
I hope to make myself clear here.
So far, I hear the instructors say trade the trend, start with a daily chart to see the behavior of the Currency you are viewing then you could fine tune down to a 4h or possibly a 1 hr chart.
I this example you have shown I would be hesitant to go short, Being the New guy I would be thinking the downtrend has run out and I probably might try to go long.
I would like to know more about trend reversals and to properly recognize such.
In your example,
If the price broke thru the resistance, How long would it take to confirm that the downtrend in this case, has ceased.
Is it a few days on a daily chart.
This is a key to me to get a better understanding of trading the trend and knowing when to recognize the trend reversal.

I hope I made myself somewhat clear.
Thank you

Thanks for your question. As you can see the AUD/USD dropped 2000 pips since my post indicating that short was the direction to trade in. The definition of a down trend is when price on a chart makes lower swing highs and lower swing lows. This creates a stair-step pattern down. When we have a higher swing high followed by a higher swing low on a daily chart then we would say that the trend has reversed and not retraced. Currently, many downtrending pairs have entered a retracement phase. Profits can be made trading retraces but it is extremely risky trading against the down trend. Since we are still below the 200 MA and withing a downward sloping trading channel and MACD pointing down, lower prices are on the horizon. Picking tops and bottoms is a risky proposition. we look to trade with the trend until the trend ends. We may be late to the reversal party, but their will be plenty of chips and punch when we get there.

Gregory McLeod · #49 (**permalink**) 11-04-2008, 10:11 AM

Cable continues to meander in a range between the October 30 high of 1.6671 and the October 24 low of 1.5277. With the US presidential election hours away, look for GBPUSD to remain range bound until either McCain or Obama is declared the clear victor. However, a break below 1.5277 would confirm that this bearish trend will continue.

john22 · #50 (**permalink**) 11-06-2008, 12:35 AM

Hi Matt, have a quick question for you. Would you consider the formation happening on the 1hr. EUR/US a Head and Shoulder top happening? With the top being in the 9 to 12 time frame
John

Matt Russell · #51 (**permalink**) 11-06-2008, 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by john22

Hi Matt, have a quick question for you. Would you consider the formation happening on the 1hr. EUR/US a Head and Shoulder top happening? With the top being in the 9 to 12 time frame
John

I do not see a clear pattern on the 60 minute chart. I am not sure where the left shoulder would be. If you are considering the 10/23 high to be the left shoulder, then yes, possibly, but I would need to see a clearer pattern. The 10/23 high occurred during a sharp downtrend, which then bottomed near 1.23. We would want the head and shoulder pattern to be part of a counter trend rally that is more clear.

Gregory McLeod · #52 (**permalink**) 11-06-2008, 08:18 AM

Look for the current counter-trend rally to run out of steam and head lower. Waiting for the stochastics to cross back below 80 would confirm resumption of the down trend.

john22 · #53 (**permalink**) 11-06-2008, 01:07 PM

Hi Matt, what I'm looking at is the long candle at at 10:00am as the right shoulder and the head ar 3pm both on the 5/Nov and the right shoulder being from noon to 1600 on the 4/Nov. This would be an inverted head and shoulder. But does it they apply in the rally market?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Russell

I do not see a clear pattern on the 60 minute chart. I am not sure where the left shoulder would be. If you are considering the 10/23 high to be the left shoulder, then yes, possibly, but I would need to see a clearer pattern. The 10/23 high occurred during a sharp downtrend, which then bottomed near 1.23. We would want the head and shoulder pattern to be part of a counter trend rally that is more clear.

Matt Russell · #54 (**permalink**) 11-06-2008, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by john22

Hi Matt, what I'm looking at is the long candle at at 10:00am as the right shoulder and the head ar 3pm both on the 5/Nov and the right shoulder being from noon to 1600 on the 4/Nov. This would be an inverted head and shoulder. But does it they apply in the rally market?

I highlighted a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern on today's trade set up presentation.

http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...tml#post206691

Gregory McLeod · #55 (**permalink**) 11-12-2008, 06:41 AM

A U.S. Veterans Day holiday kicked off with a dollar rally. USDCHF looks especially bullish as it broke out of 6 day sideways range closing above November 4th high of 1.1799. Look for 1.2100 area to be challenged in the coming days. Price may retest the breakout point before moving higher to give us another chance to enter long.

Gregory McLeod · #56 (**permalink**) 11-12-2008, 09:54 AM

Thanks for the good eyes!

Gregory McLeod · #57 (**permalink**) 11-17-2008, 11:06 PM

Australian Dollar/US Dollar remains locked in a strong downtrend that has now consolidated in a Triangle Pattern. Look for a violent breakout in the direction of the daily trend toward the .5184 area once price clears the psychological .6000 figure. Though prices could break North to the .8000 based on a measuring objective, this scenario is highly unlikely given the state of the global economy that includes a lower demand or commodities. The possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates an additional 100 basis points adds to the bearish setup.

Gregory McLeod · #58 (**permalink**) 11-19-2008, 01:17 AM

EURCHF is our trend for today. A break of the lower green support trend line would give us a sell signal. Prices may continue to coil higher before this breakout to the downside. We would like to have multiple confirmations with this setup like stochastic crossing back down from above 80 to below 80.

Gregory McLeod · #59 (**permalink**) 11-19-2008, 07:37 PM

As financial markets continue to fall around the world, the Mighty Dollar continues to be a safe haven for investors. USD/CAD is the beneficiary of this dollar bullishness. A break from a pennant consolidation and psychological resistance area of 1.2400 opens up the 1.3012 October 28th high. Failure to take this level out could take us as low as 1.1500.

Gregory McLeod · #60 (**permalink**) 11-20-2008, 11:13 PM

The year is 1995. Bill Clinton is president of the United States, Mexico’s economy receives a bailout, and OJ Simpson’s verdict is not guilty.
Batman Forever is the #1 movie in 1995 and GBP/JPY is trading at 128.44.
Thirteen years later, a Clinton is back in the spotlight, the global economy needs a bailout and OJ Simpson is found guilty. Batman Dark Knight is the #1 grossing movie of 2008 (so far). Amid all this, GBPJPY is a little more than a 1100 points from reaching the same level it was in 1995. With an average daily range of 617 pips, this pair could be there by Monday.
GBPJPY has managed to erase 13 years of gains from its July 12th 2007 high of 248.88 to its present point below support at 140.00. Look for a retest of the old support at the 140.00 to target 128.44
It’s amazing how things seem to repeat; even in the currency market