Trend of the Day - Page 41

Gregory McLeod · #**601** (**permalink**) 07-01-2009, 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Thanks Greg, I guess I am in look see mode. Thanks again.

You are welcome. We got a little below the .618 but it held. With Non Farm Payroll on Friday, wait-and-see is a good strategy.

Gregory McLeod · #**602** (**permalink**) 07-01-2009, 07:09 AM

On June 18th, I wrote:

New Highs Maybe in the Cards for Aussie Cad

Since breaking out of its 2 month range between .8600 and .9000 on June 11th, Aussie Cad has rocketed to the highs of .9300. Look for continuation of this trend for the coming days. Drop down to a 4 hour chart to place stops a little below the .9244 June 29th swing low. Use a 1:2 risk to reward target in which the limit is at least 2 times the stop.
Attached Images

AUD/CAD reached a high of .9392 before pulling back exceeding my profit objective.

Kimaki · #**603** (**permalink**) 07-01-2009, 08:57 AM

Good morning Greg, Rain in the Caribbean today. Tell me, what in the Non Farm Payroll determines which way the price will move?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

You are welcome. We got a little below the .618 but it held. With Non Farm Payroll on Friday, wait-and-see is a good strategy.

Gregory McLeod · #**604** (**permalink**) 07-01-2009, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Good morning Greg, Rain in the Caribbean today. Tell me, what in the Non Farm Payroll determines which way the price will move?

I'll take a rainy day in the Caribbean! It printed -345K jobs lost last month. It is forecasted to come in at -360k. If the number comes in 360K or better, look for all currencies to rally against the dollar. If the number comes in worse--more than 360k jobs lost look for a rally in the dollar and yen and a sell off of all other pairs.

Gregory McLeod · #**605** (**permalink**) 07-01-2009, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

As you can see from the two charts that I posted below, the overall daily trend of the AUD/USD is up. This means that we should look to buy dips. There is profit be made trading against the trend however, as traders, we give up our edge and take on more risk as we are not sure when this counter trend drop will finish. Waiting on the side lines for it to end would be prudent. Notice how price fell and broke the red trend line. The magenta circle is where we would initiate a long trade in the direction of the daily trend. Notice how stochastic crossed showing profit taking fading. At the far right look at the Morning Star formation that may lead to more strength.

This is another example of fading the counter-trend move:

Kimaki · #**606** (**permalink**) 07-01-2009, 10:07 AM

OK. are you saying that if it comes in at over 360k we can expect the Dollar and Yen to go long while other pairs go short?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

I'll take a rainy day in the Caribbean! It printed -345K jobs lost last month. It is forecasted to come in at -360k. If the number comes in 360K or better, look for all currencies to rally against the dollar. If the number comes in worse--more than 360k jobs lost look for a rally in the dollar and yen and a sell off of all other pairs.

Gregory McLeod · #**607** (**permalink**) 07-01-2009, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

OK. are you saying that if it comes in at over 360k we can expect the Dollar and Yen to go long while other pairs go short?

That has been the general pattern. Look for news reversals in which when the announcement is made, price will go a certain direction for about 15-20 minutes and then prices go in a contrary direction (real direction) a little later.
I will try to be online at the time and we can talk about live or as live as we can be via the forum.

jcole252 · #**608** (**permalink**) 07-02-2009, 07:38 AM

Hi Greg,

I have a question on the age and reliability of trend lines. In another post, I’ve heard the expression “matured trend line” several times, and the implication seemed to be less reliability with advancing age.

In the image below, which would you consider the stronger trend line, the longer downward line or the shorter upward line?

Thank you,

jcole252

Kimaki · #**609** (**permalink**) 07-02-2009, 08:52 AM

Goooood morning Greg, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, & AUD/CAD. They have been behaving strangely, and I have taken some stick on both the GBP/JPY & AUD/CAD, I have possitions opened in them now thinking that they were low and showed SSD reversal signals, but I am wondering if I should ignore trading this week. It seems that there is anticipation with NON Farm Payroll coming out and things are shaky now. I did not take the look see attitude all the way to Friday. There seems to be a lot of diving going on. What do you think.

Gregory McLeod · #**610** (**permalink**) 07-02-2009, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Good morning Greg, Rain in the Caribbean today. Tell me, what in the Non Farm Payroll determines which way the price will move?

-->

Good morning Robert! Because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, NFP was announced today. The number came out worse than expected at -467,000 jobs lost versus expectations of -360,000 jobs lost for the month of June.

That is reason for the choppiness as well as the thin holiday trading.

Gregory McLeod · #**611** (**permalink**) 07-02-2009, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcole252

Hi Greg,

I have a question on the age and reliability of trend lines. In another post, I’ve heard the expression “matured trend line” several times, and the implication seemed to be less reliability with advancing age.

In the image below, which would you consider the stronger trend line, the longer downward line or the shorter upward line?

Thank you,

jcole252

The longer down trend line seems more mature just due to the number of bars that are under it. However, it can be argued that the rising uptrend line is a counter trend line against the trend and when it breaks, the down trend would have returned.

Kimaki · #**612** (**permalink**) 07-02-2009, 09:37 AM

Tell me Greg, If you get stopped out, meaning you took a loss at your original stop position, do you then wait for a turn signal and re-enter, or do you go back to the daily and stay away from the pair. Considering it a done trade?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

-->

Good morning Robert! Because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, NFP was announced today. The number came out worse than expected at -467,000 jobs lost versus expectations of -360,000 jobs lost for the month of June.

That is reason for the choppiness as well as the thin holiday trading.

Xiao · #**613** (**permalink**) 07-02-2009, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

This is another example of fading the counter-trend move:

Hello Sir,,

could you Explain a Little how You trade to a Currency Pair by Calculate The Forex System Selector and through By the Market Movement ..

I wish I can learn From you ,,More..

thank you

Kimaki · #**614** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 06:11 AM

An early good morning to you Greg. Attached is a jpeg of two pairs with positions opened on them. I know that you are not allowed to tell traders what to do with existing trades and I understand that. I am trying to review the options open to me at this time. GBP/USD & AUD/CAD. been giving me trouble. Circled in the jpeg below is how its been running since positions were last opened on them. Today is Friday and they have been like this for two days. especially after the Non Farm Payroll came out. Under the circumstances, Is closing them a viable option? I know that leaving the trade is best under most situations.

Gregory McLeod · #**615** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by floonefaivori

Hi iam newbie to this forum my name Mark

Hello Mark. Nice to meet you. We are building a community to help us all become better traders and I am glad you are with us!