Trend of the Day - Page 45 - DailyFX Forex Forum

Gregory McLeod · #**661** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 04:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izumi

Hello Xiao,
GBP is getting weaker towards USD and USD is getting weaker towards JPY, therefore GBP should get even more weaker towards JPY. However, BOJ said they are not comfortable with the strength of the Yen and if they start selling trillions of JPY again, we could see a blue candlestick like the red one on wednesday. I preffer to look for an entry point to buy GBP/JPY if price goes lower rather then to sell at these levels. USD/CAD is a different story.
Let see what Gregory says. He's the God around here, I'm just the doorkeeper.

Your analysis of the Yen is correct, Izumi. Look at the multiple bottoms on 4 yen cross pairs. Take your pick, selling the Yen is the common theme:

Xiao · #**662** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 04:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Your analysis of the Yen is correct, Izumi. Look at the multiple bottoms on 4 yen cross pairs. Take your pick, selling the Yen is the common theme:

ok sir Got it Great

Izumi · #**663** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 05:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Your analysis of the Yen is correct, Izumi. Look at the multiple bottoms on 4 yen cross pairs. Take your pick, selling the Yen is the common theme:

Thank you, Gregory.

What do you think about CORPORATE EARNINGS?

Much of the news was already priced in and the rally started ahead of the announcements. There wasn't much steam left when the news started to flow and dollar got even a little stronger right after the first Earning Report. USD and JPY crosses resumed their uptrend, but this is just the start of the Earning Season.

Do you think that the Earning Reports will continue to sustain this rally?

Gregory McLeod · #**664** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izumi

Thank you, Gregory.

What do you think about CORPORATE EARNINGS?

Much of the news was already priced in and the rally started ahead of the announcements. There wasn't much steam left when the news started to flow and dollar got even a little stronger right after the first Earning Report. USD and JPY crosses resumed their uptrend, but this is just the start of the Earning Season.

Do you think that the Earning Reports will continue to sustain this rally?

I don't really follow earnings that closely as I believe that number, like economic numbers, can be fudged. However, huge layoffs, deferred investment in expansion and cost cutting is going to make companies balance sheets look good. Earnings will be higher because of cost cutting and job reduction, but revenue will be flat to negative because unemployed workers, historically, buy less than employed workers. Compared to a year ago or the previous quarter, companies will look stellar with low Price to Earnings (P/E) ratios. Low stock prices and higher relative earnings means that stocks are a value and this triggers buyers. However, when all forms of cost cutting are exhausted, these P/E values will be too high as without revenues (people buying stuff) stock selling could be very strong. People with jobs will become fearful and stop buying goods and the growing unemployed will run out of aid and be unable to spend.

For the mean time we enjoy the rally up until the next round of earnings. This benefits all the majors against the dollar and yen. This is just my 2 pips. I hope that I am very wrong about this.

Gregory McLeod · #**665** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

A break of the red trend line would be added confirmation that the downtrend has returned. See the attached chart:

This was a big fish that got away! The Trend was someone's friend.

crossleyjuan · #**666** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 11:46 AM

Hi, I'm seeing an evening star suggesting a peak at 1.647 and the price is going down, what do you think?

In addition there's a resistance line from the previous higher highs in the range that suggest the evening star is quite right, hoping this analysis is right the price should go down for some pips. The Stochastic is also suggesting the same... would you agree with my newbie analysis?

Gregory McLeod · #**667** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crossleyjuan

Hi, I'm seeing an evening star suggesting a peak at 1.647 and the price is going down, what do you think?

In addition there's a resistance line from the previous higher highs in the range that suggest the evening star is quite right, hoping this analysis is right the price should go down for some pips. The Stochastic is also suggesting the same... would you agree with my newbie analysis?

The Daily FX Speculative Sentiment Indicator (SSI) shows that retail traders are shorting the GBP/USD. This may mean that GBP/USD could move higher in the coming days. There is still a weak daily uptrend in place and the trend line has not been broken.

Kimaki · #**668** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 12:35 PM

Hi Greg, How u going, have not seen much of you lately, don't let them run you ragged. CHF/JPY On the daily looks to poised to go long being able to get up to 90.00. however on the 2 hour and 4 hour she is very oversold. I jumped a bit hastily with two mini lots at 87.529 and find myself a bit tentative placing the stop at 86.832 about 70 pips back. Its the oversold on the 2 & 4 that worry me. I am looking to take profits 1:2 at 88.931. Did I really jump in to quickly and at the risk of a retrace here or are the odds somewhat in my favor?
would not mind you 2pips.

Gregory McLeod · #**669** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Hi Greg, How u going, have not seen much of you lately, don't let them run you ragged. CHF/JPY On the daily looks to poised to go long being able to get up to 90.00. however on the 2 hour and 4 hour she is very oversold. I jumped a bit hastily with two mini lots at 87.529 and find myself a bit tentative placing the stop at 86.832 about 70 pips back. Its the oversold on the 2 & 4 that worry me. I am looking to take profits 1:2 at 88.931. Did I really jump in to quickly and at the risk of a retrace here or are the odds somewhat in my favor?
would not mind you 2pips.

Looks like you are just doing fine without me! There is a daily trend line in the 88.23 area. That could be some formidable resistance. Might not break through on the first encounter. One could take half off just before the daily trend line and bring stops to breakeven on second half and let it have a go at that trend line. Or taking the whole thing off just before contact. These are other possibilities not recommendations.

Kimaki · #**670** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 02:26 PM

Thanks for your vote of confidence Greg, however, I always feel much better when your suggestions go opposite than when mine sink because with your suggestions I feel that the best odds were played. With me I question if I looked at it from all angles. Thanks Much Man.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Looks like you are just doing fine without me! There is a daily trend line in the 88.23 area. That could be some formidable resistance. Might not break through on the first encounter. One could take half off just before the daily trend line and bring stops to breakeven on second half and let it have a go at that trend line. Or taking the whole thing off just before contact. These are other possibilities not recommendations.

KP FX Trader · #**671** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The Daily FX Speculative Sentiment Indicator (SSI) shows that retail traders are shorting the GBP/USD. This may mean that GBP/USD could move higher in the coming days. There is still a weak daily uptrend in place and the trend line has not been broken.

Hi Greg, I am wondering why I don't see in dailyfxplus the SSI post for the pound that you mention here??? New SSI stats come out on Wed. typically, is that right? Or are they released randomly? The last post I see for the GBP/USD is July 10th.

Gregory McLeod · #**672** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Hi Greg, I am wondering why I don't see in dailyfxplus the SSI post for the pound that you mention here??? New SSI stats come out on Wed. typically, is that right? Or are they released randomly? The last post I see for the GBP/USD is July 10th.

SSI is actually updated twice a day for all the pairs listed in the first graph. The graph updates several pairs followed by a paragraph highlight on one noteworthy pair. Daily FX does not do a write-up on all of the pairs listed in SSI.

Gregory McLeod · #**673** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Thanks for your vote of confidence Greg, however, I always feel much better when your suggestions go opposite than when mine sink because with your suggestions I feel that the best odds were played. With me I question if I looked at it from all angles. Thanks Much Man.

You are very welcome! It is my profound pleasure to help.

Xiao · #**674** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The Daily FX Speculative Sentiment Indicator (SSI) shows that retail traders are shorting the GBP/USD. This may mean that GBP/USD could move higher in the coming days. There is still a weak daily uptrend in place and the trend line has not been broken.

Sir

If SSI Daily GBP/USD Report Speculative Statement Report Is - Or + so What does It mean?

Gregory McLeod · #**675** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiao

Sir

If SSI Daily GBP/USD Report Speculative Statement Report Is - Or + so What does It mean?

The number represents the ratio of longs to shorts. A negative number indicates more retail shorts than longs. A positive number indicates more retail longs than shorts.