The Aussie Dollar has staged an impressive comeback since breaking its upward daily trend line back in late June. Its rally has carried it up to the very bottom edge of this support trend line. It is rare that a a currency pair can break back above a broken trend line. Technical Analysis 101 tells us that "old support becomes new resistance". Technical Analysis also tells us that there are no guarantees. Look for either a convincing closing candle break above the channel resistance to enter long or a bearish reversal candlestick pattern at the daily trend line to initiate shorts.
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The Aussie Dollar has staged an impressive comeback since breaking its upward daily trend line back in late June. Its rally has carried it up to the very bottom edge of this support trend line. It is rare that a a currency pair can break back above a broken trend line. Technical Analysis 101 tells us that "old support becomes new resistance". Technical Analysis also tells us that there are no guarantees. Look for either a convincing closing candle break above the channel resistance to enter long or a bearish reversal candlestick pattern at the daily trend line to initiate shorts.
Gregory,
I see 6 wicks at 0.81 and the former support line (that you mention) is crossing the 0.81 horizontal line. Slow stochastics on the 60 min. chart confirms an uptrend. Earnings news today should support the uptrend, but for whoever-knows-what reasons, Fitch downgraded Australian economic outlook and this downgrade could take AUD down.
Do you think that 0.81 is a good entry point to short AUD?
As you can see on my chart, I divided the 0.63052-0.82306 interval in 2:
1). 0.63052-0.73270
2). 0.69640-0.82306
On both intervals there was NO COMPLETE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT !!
Doesn't this open the door for a complete Fibonacci Retracement on the bigger interval: 0.63052-0.82306, to at least 38.2%? This would mean a drop to at least 0.75153, before the larger uptrend move resumes. In fact, what prevails usually: the Fibonacci retracement or the swing point?
Last edited by Izumi; 07-16-2009 at 06:35 AM..
Reason: one more question
This was a big fish that got away! The Trend was someone's friend.
Unfortunately, I didn't catch this fish, but I was close. I was expecting USD/CAD to go down, but only after trying to take out 1.18135 (the 18.05.2009 high). I didn't open yet any position to catch the uptrend, because I was afraid that the pair might fall under the 61.8% retracement of the uptrend. Well, now that it reached there, I'm going to wait for a double bottom, as confirmation that it will not go even lower. What is the stongest support line in your opinion?
SSI is actually updated twice a day for all the pairs listed in the first graph. The graph updates several pairs followed by a paragraph highlight on one noteworthy pair. Daily FX does not do a write-up on all of the pairs listed in SSI.
So Greg where did you get your SSI statistics on the cable? do you have a link you can post? maybe I overlooked in fxplus.
Also, can you post something on how one might use pivot points. Thats PPMA in marketscope, correct?
and I answered one of my own previous questions, the dots on the chart are the Parabolic SAR indicator, I had toyed with in the past. Thx!
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Last edited by KP FX Trader; 07-16-2009 at 02:54 PM..
NZD/USD has been locked in a down sloping channel for over a month and has now come back up to resistance. Wait for either a closed full bodied candle above resistance to enter long or a follow though on the Evening Star pattern forming at resistance to enter short. A resolution of this pattern should come in a few days.
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So Greg where did you get your SSI statistics on the cable? do you have a link you can post? maybe I overlooked in fxplus.
Also, can you post something on how one might use pivot points. Thats PPMA in marketscope, correct?
and I answered one of my own previous questions, the dots on the chart are the Parabolic SAR indicator, I had toyed with in the past. Thx!
SSI data is updated twice daily in the Forex Signals/Daily FX plus page.
When you select "SSI" from the menu on the left you will see a list of headlines. Click the head line to get detailed SSI data that looks like this. You have to look at the graph an interpret the data as the Daily FX team will only choose one of the currency pairs to write on. See the attached illustrations:
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SSI data is updated twice daily in the Forex Signals/Daily FX plus page.
When you select "SSI" from the menu on the left you will see a list of headlines. Click the head line to get detailed SSI data that looks like this. You have to look at the graph an interpret the data as the Daily FX team will only choose one of the currency pairs to write on. See the attached illustrations:
I use SSI to primarily confirm the trend. To find out more about how the numbers are derived and other nuances of this indicator, Daily FX has a great forum dedicated to this HERE
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I see 6 wicks at 0.81 and the former support line (that you mention) is crossing the 0.81 horizontal line. Slow stochastics on the 60 min. chart confirms an uptrend. Earnings news today should support the uptrend, but for whoever-knows-what reasons, Fitch downgraded Australian economic outlook and this downgrade could take AUD down.
Do you think that 0.81 is a good entry point to short AUD?
As you can see on my chart, I divided the 0.63052-0.82306 interval in 2:
1). 0.63052-0.73270
2). 0.69640-0.82306
On both intervals there was NO COMPLETE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT !!
Doesn't this open the door for a complete Fibonacci Retracement on the bigger interval: 0.63052-0.82306, to at least 38.2%? This would mean a drop to at least 0.75153, before the larger uptrend move resumes. In fact, what prevails usually: the Fibonacci retracement or the swing point?
Trying to short it at 8240 would reduce some of the risk or if price took out the last swing low. Since this pair is in an indecision zone, I would want to see some strong movement in either direction. The break down could be substantial, so missing a 100 pips to get 400 is a small price to pay to be extra confident.
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So Greg where did you get your SSI statistics on the cable? do you have a link you can post? maybe I overlooked in fxplus.
Also, can you post something on how one might use pivot points. Thats PPMA in marketscope, correct?
and I answered one of my own previous questions, the dots on the chart are the Parabolic SAR indicator, I had toyed with in the past. Thx!
Here is an great article written by Daily FX which has some examples using FX Trek. Click Here
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information.
So Greg where did you get your SSI statistics on the cable? do you have a link you can post? maybe I overlooked in fxplus.
Also, can you post something on how one might use pivot points. Thats PPMA in marketscope, correct?
and I answered one of my own previous questions, the dots on the chart are the Parabolic SAR indicator, I had toyed with in the past. Thx!
PPMA is a moving average based on the Pivot Point calculation. I do not see Pivot Points in Marketscope. Use Netdania charts and look in the studies menu. In Intellicharts, Pivot Points are in the drawing menu.
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I don't really follow earnings that closely as I believe that number, like economic numbers, can be fudged. However, huge layoffs, deferred investment in expansion and cost cutting is going to make companies balance sheets look good. Earnings will be higher because of cost cutting and job reduction, but revenue will be flat to negative because unemployed workers, historically, buy less than employed workers. Compared to a year ago or the previous quarter, companies will look stellar with low Price to Earnings (P/E) ratios. Low stock prices and higher relative earnings means that stocks are a value and this triggers buyers. However, when all forms of cost cutting are exhausted, these P/E values will be too high as without revenues (people buying stuff) stock selling could be very strong. People with jobs will become fearful and stop buying goods and the growing unemployed will run out of aid and be unable to spend.
For the mean time we enjoy the rally up until the next round of earnings. This benefits all the majors against the dollar and yen. This is just my 2 pips. I hope that I am very wrong about this.
Thank you Gregory for the straight answer!
Your explanation is very logic. I wish I had you as teacher at University. It would have been great.
It seems that everyone is aware of the fake numbers and yet nobody cares. It looks like all crooks gathered and joined the Financial Institutions in USA. Bernard Madoff, ex-chairman of the NASDAQ stock exchange, is now a menu-item in Bloomberg. I think that everyone who invests money should be responsible for their potential losses, but if their money is stolen, market-regulators should be responsible. My impression is that all trillions of dollars, that are printed now, are NOT for giving back the stolen money to investors.
Your explanation is very logic. I wish I had you as teacher at University. It would have been great.
It seems that everyone is aware of the fake numbers and yet nobody cares. It looks like all crooks gathered and joined the Financial Institutions in USA. Bernard Madoff, ex-chairman of the NASDAQ stock exchange, is now a menu-item in Bloomberg. I think that everyone who invests money should be responsible for their potential losses, but if their money is stolen, market-regulators should be responsible. My impression is that all trillions of dollars, that are printed now, are NOT for giving back the stolen money to investors.
Now there are new firms arising out of the ashes of this Financial crisis fallout that have are making solid honest profits. Many we have not heard about but will in the future. Lots of great talent have moved to these firms. As well as older established firms that have successfully navigated through the crisis. So I wouldn't throw out the "baby with the bath water".
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information.
I see 6 wicks at 0.81 and the former support line (that you mention) is crossing the 0.81 horizontal line. Slow stochastics on the 60 min. chart confirms an uptrend. Earnings news today should support the uptrend, but for whoever-knows-what reasons, Fitch downgraded Australian economic outlook and this downgrade could take AUD down.
Do you think that 0.81 is a good entry point to short AUD?
As you can see on my chart, I divided the 0.63052-0.82306 interval in 2:
1). 0.63052-0.73270
2). 0.69640-0.82306
On both intervals there was NO COMPLETE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT !!
Doesn't this open the door for a complete Fibonacci Retracement on the bigger interval: 0.63052-0.82306, to at least 38.2%? This would mean a drop to at least 0.75153, before the larger uptrend move resumes. In fact, what prevails usually: the Fibonacci retracement or the swing point?
price action respects trend lines and chart patterns more then fibonacci . i think AUD/USD is a bullish flag and it should be see as a flat down trend ( series of lower highs and lower lows ) and i agree with greg .
@ greg ... what a coincidence . today i looked at the nzd usd daily chart these two lines were the first thing which came in my mind the previous support trend line ( acting as resistance) and the resistance line connecting the lower highs ) . our thoughts match alot . and yes special thanks for your posts i learned how to predict the expected price target from your posts . and for me in smaller time frames that works at an accuracy of 90 % ....
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