Trend of the Day - Page 92

Kimaki · #**1366** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 08:01 AM

Great, Happy trading.

Quote:

Originally Posted by supa

Kimaki, lissyking, Hawali thanks 2all of u.

I finally found the simple way of doing this as you annotated in the attached.

supa

supa · #**1367** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 08:13 AM

Hi Greg

Can you please assist me with how to obtain the volatility reading of a particular 'currency' and/or of a particular 'currency pair'?

sample of what I mean can be found at dailyFX+'s trading signal page as annotated in the attached.

Any comment from anybody on how I can get a reading for this value will be appreciated.

tnks

supa

Kimaki · #**1368** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 08:18 AM

Greg are we still on track with this suggestion for EurAud also UsdChf.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Free Fall
Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
Traders Trying to Catch the Falling Knife
Good eye again, Robert. The entry would be at 1.0176 with a target of 1.0000.
Since traders are trying to pick a bottom by trading the long side of USD/CHF, we would look to go short USD/CHF on a 2-pip break below the 1.0178 area with stops above the 1.0300 area. Look to target the 1.0136 July 22nd 2008 low.

One of the reasons that traders come from other markets to trade the FOREX market is that currencies trend well. These trends can last months or even years. The EUR/AUD downtrend would be included in this category of long trending currencies. This pair has been in virtually a “free-fall” state from its October 2008 high of 2.1149 to its 52-week low of 1.6255. This a whopping 4,894 pips. This downtrend does not appear to be ending anytime soon especially as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised their benchmark interest rate to 3.25% to be the first major industrialized nation to do so. Since interest rate differentials are a key driver of currency pair price action, expect EUR/AUD and her other Aussie cousins to be bid in the coming weeks. Entering short on 2 pip break below 1.6250 or waiting for a retrace up to the 1.6750 area would be to possible scenarios where a trader could get involved

Gregory McLeod · #**1369** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supa

Hi Greg

Can you please assist me with how to obtain the volatility reading of a particular 'currency' and/or of a particular 'currency pair'?

sample of what I mean can be found at dailyFX+'s trading signal page as annotated in the attached.

Any comment from anybody on how I can get a reading for this value will be appreciated.

tnks

supa

It is some proprietary formula that is not accessible.

Gregory McLeod · #**1370** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supa

Hi Greg,

Thank you for your response.

what correlation figure will you take to be significant? from 70%, 80% or from 90% upward?

tnks

supa

I am not much of a correlation watcher as I may use them occasionally to confirm a trend. I pair them up on a chart and see how they have moved with each other.

Gregory McLeod · #**1371** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supa

Hi Greg,

Thanks for your response.

1. I will still appreciate ur comments on the MACD & Slow_K as at the time I posted the chart.
2. There is a -80.9 daily correlation between EURUSD & EURNZD - does this bring a different opinion to the table?
3. The daily trend seems to still be in charge!!

Will appreciate ur comment on 1 & 2

tnks

supa

MACD lines crossing above the zero reference line is bullish, however MACD Historgram shows negative divergence which is bearish.

Stochastics in this example is rising which is bullish but the trend is down.

The indicators would not be much help to trade this pair.

Gregory McLeod · #**1372** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg are we still on track with this suggestion for EurAud also UsdChf.

Good looking out Robert. These would have triggered and be in the money currently.

Gregory McLeod · #**1373** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 11:55 AM

I previously wrote:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The Trend of the Day - AUD/JPY

Today Aussie Yen has broken out of a near 3 month range between the 76.52 to the 80.000 area. Measuring the width of the range gives us a conservative price target of 83.28. Taking the length of the range gives us a more aggressive target of 90.00. Positive carry interest paid, strong Australian economic fundamentals and record high price of gold underpin this rally.

AUD/JPY hit my price target of 83.28 with ease after breaking out of a 5 month range. A break above this area could see the 85.15 Oct 2008 high come into play.

Gregory McLeod · #**1374** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg I got stopped out on that pair AudUsd a long time ago. I have made as much as I have lost on her, so I left her alone. I see that she has climbed the ladder now. Luckily I am smiling from Aud.Jpy, up now 186pips. Your other AUD suggestion. Thanks

Ok very nice. She seems to move in fits and starts against the dollar as the AUD/JPY has been a far smoother ride.

Gregory McLeod · #**1375** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CB.

The weekly 38.2 and the hourly 50% both line up, the short term is a retracement of the daily up trend. CB.

The GBP/USD daily chart has made lower swing highs and lower swing lows indicating a down trend channel in yellow. The 61.8% retracement of this most recent down move is at 1.6536 near the yellow down trend line. I would look to short this pair in the 1.6762 to 1.6536 range. Since the current price action is moving against the daily trend, I would stand aside until the counter trend runs out of steam. Using Stochastics can help us pinpoint this sell zone.

Kimaki · #**1376** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 12:19 PM

Are we looking at a 2pip break above 83.383 or a retrace to 82.516 for the entry, which do you think is optimum basedon how she has been moving?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Good looking out Robert. These would have triggered and be in the money currently.

Gregory McLeod · #**1377** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Are we looking at a 2pip break above 83.383 or a retrace to 82.516 for the entry, which do you think is optimum basedon how she has been moving?

The 2-pip breakout above the daily high seems to work well with the AUD/JPY. 90.24 is the September 2008 high.

Kimaki · #**1378** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 12:45 PM

Thanks again Greg, I don't know if you have time to check out my earlier post on both UsdChf, and Eur/Aud Re. your earlier suggestions. Thanks again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The 2-pip breakout above the daily high seems to work well with the AUD/JPY. 90.24 is the September 2008 high.

Gregory McLeod · #**1379** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.SANDLER

hello Gregory McLeod

I am new could you explain where should go first

You can look at my Trend of the Day Posts and updates and just follow along or post a chart, ask a question or make a comment. We are here to help each other trade well.

Gregory McLeod · #**1380** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Thanks again Greg, I don't know if you have time to check out my earlier post on both UsdChf, and Eur/Aud Re. your earlier suggestions. Thanks again.

USD/CHF has broken below the 1.0178 low as it is currently trading at 1.0164 X 66 so the entry is valid as SSI confirms this as well.

EUR/AUD has broken below the 1.6250 low as we are currently trading at 1.6241 X 47 so that entry short is valid as well.