Trend of the Day - Page 96

Gregory McLeod · #**1426** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 07:59 AM

After gold reached an all time high inter-day at $1,084/ounce, AUD/JPY started to move higher from the once month lows at 79.45 to 82.41 currently. Aussie Yen should be able to retake the 85.00 handle in the coming days as risk appetite, rising commodity prices and anti-dollar sentiment all are winds at the back of this pair. 85.30 is the October 23rd high. the next level of daily resistance is at the September 2008 high of 90.24 and the August 2008 high of 94.91 which is the measuring objective from the previous channel breakout.

As usual, we use the daily chart to identify the directional bias of a currency pair and then move to a lower time frame, like the 4-hour chart, to pinpoint a good risk/reward entry in the direction of the daily trend.

Happy Trading!

Kimaki · #**1427** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 09:41 AM

Greg Buddy, Hope all is fine, things have been a little dead around here without you. UsdCad, I got 172 pips out of her when she hit my limit this morning. I am thinking that if she can get past support now at .06250 there should be a good run to .02284, 383 pips away. SSD is at 1.51 which could be better to go short. what do you think, she has the legs or not?

Gregory McLeod · #**1428** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg Buddy, Hope all is fine, things have been a little dead around here without you. UsdCad, I got 172 pips out of her when she hit my limit this morning. I am thinking that if she can get past support now at .06250 there should be a good run to .02284, 383 pips away. SSD is at 1.51 which could be better to go short. what do you think, she has the legs or not?

Hello Kimaki Glad to see you here too. The old low would be a good target considering the dollars weakness which would be the 100% retracement of the upmove. Also look at the 78.6% as a target as well.

Kimaki · #**1429** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 10:32 AM

Greg, things are a little overbought on AudJpy h2 Chart do you think there would be some retrace, I see .82041 as a stop placement but would prefer .80723 but its a bit further?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

After gold reached an all time high inter-day at $1,084/ounce, AUD/JPY started to move higher from the once month lows at 79.45 to 82.41 currently. Aussie Yen should be able to retake the 85.00 handle in the coming days as risk appetite, rising commodity prices and anti-dollar sentiment all are winds at the back of this pair. 85.30 is the October 23rd high. the next level of daily resistance is at the September 2008 high of 90.24 and the August 2008 high of 94.91 which is the measuring objective from the previous channel breakout.

As usual, we use the daily chart to identify the directional bias of a currency pair and then move to a lower time frame, like the 4-hour chart, to pinpoint a good risk/reward entry in the direction of the daily trend.

Happy Trading!

Gregory McLeod · #**1430** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg, things are a little overbought on AudJpy h2 Chart do you think there would be some retrace, I see .82041 as a stop placement but would prefer .80723 but its a bit further?

It looks like it could pull back as the Stochastics is very overbought. There is an FOMC meeting today at 3:00pm Eastern time. The Interest rate announcement could place some downward pressure if the statement comes out from the FED as being hawkish (willing to raise rates to head off inflation).

Kimaki · #**1431** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 11:41 AM

Thanks a lot Greg, on both counts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

It looks like it could pull back as the Stochastics is very overbought. There is an FOMC meeting today at 3:00pm Eastern time. The Interest rate announcement could place some downward pressure if the statement comes out from the FED as being hawkish (willing to raise rates to head off inflation).

Gregory McLeod · #**1432** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Thanks a lot Greg, on both counts.

Glad to help.

Gregory McLeod · #**1433** (**permalink**) 11-06-2009, 01:06 PM

Short term Swissy Rally Could Lead to Bigger Drop

The greatly awaited NFP unemployment report has come and gone. Now traders are asking:
Have we finally reached a bottom of USD/CHF?
Is it time to buy on future Dollar strength?

Short term Swissy Rally Could Lead to Bigger Drop

The greatly awaited NFP unemployment report has come and gone revealing that the U.S. economy has shed 190,000 jobs from the economy.
Initially, USD/CHF rallied from the 1.0125 lows to a high of 1.0201 at the time of this writing. The worse than expected number has signaled to traders that the U.S. economy is far from a recovery as the unemployment number tops 10% for the first time.

All of this seems to tell traders that they should move from risky assets and move into the U.S. dollar to find the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The interest earned is extremely low, however the principle is guaranteed.
It would also seem that the USD/CHF would benefit from such risk averse news. This had been the story but the markets are funny. When you've think you have figured out a neat correlation or reason for the currencies to move a certain way, the markets do just the opposite.
Head Fake or or Trend Reversal?

The USD/CHF should get a short term pop up to the 1.0259 area because price could not break below the low at 1.0118. In fact, it looks like a triple bottom as sellers are taking profits form the run down from the 1.0346 November 3rd high. Look for USD/CHF to find signficant resistance
in the 1.0205 to 1.0300 zone. This is where Fibonacci resistance levels are located; 1.0205-38% , 1.0232-50%, 1.0259-61.8%.

According to the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index, retail clients are long USD/CHF by a margin of 3:1. This is an extremely bearish reading as SSI is a contrarian indicator. This means when the crowd gets long, it is time to short. When the crowd is short, it is time to buy.

I am looking at entering short at 1.0250 with a 100 pip stop at the 1.0350 level. I would set a Limit at the 1.0032 level which is the 100% retracement of the whole run-up from October 23 to November 3rd.

Missing · #**1434** (**permalink**) 11-06-2009, 01:58 PM

Nice post Greg. I had been looking at a very similar trade next week on the EUR/USD pair entering long at the 61.8 retracement of 1.4739 (the chart being ALMOST a mirror image of the USD/CHF pair-i'm sure you can see where i'm coming from!). However you've reminded me here the CHF is that little bit stronger than the Euro at present so its worth the slight difference in spread going with this pair instead.
All the best,
Missing.

Gregory McLeod · #**1435** (**permalink**) 11-06-2009, 02:02 PM

I don't think Euro strength is done yet. SSI on USD/CHF is over 3.00
USD/CHF is 84% negatively correlated to the Euro. So when Swissy goes down
the Euro goes up. Good luck in your trading and thanks for visiting!

Gregory McLeod · #**1436** (**permalink**) 11-07-2009, 02:27 PM

NFP did a little damage to the bullish EURUSD trend and look for a continuation down to the 1.4736 61.8% Fibonacci support level. From there, I expect the EUR/USD to regain the 1.5000 handle up to the 1.5100 area.

I have recorded a video describing this trade. Click HERE to access it.

Let me know what you all think about it.

Good luck with your trading!

Franosh · #**1437** (**permalink**) 11-08-2009, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

NFP did a little damage to the bullish EURUSD trend and look for a continuation down to the 1.4736 61.8% Fibonacci support level. From there, I expect the EUR/USD to regain the 1.5000 handle up to the 1.5100 area.

I have recorded a video describing this trade. Click HERE to access it.

Let me know what you all think about it.

Good luck with your trading!

Greg. Thank you very much for this. Yes, it would be nice if you can do more videos like this in the future.

Gregory McLeod · #**1438** (**permalink**) 11-08-2009, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franosh

Greg. Thank you very much for this. Yes, it would be nice if you can do more videos like this in the future.

I have the hang of the software now so I should be able to crank them out on a more regular basis. Thanks for your feedback! Have a great trading day!

lissyking · #**1439** (**permalink**) 11-09-2009, 05:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

NFP did a little damage to the bullish EURUSD trend and look for a continuation down to the 1.4736 61.8% Fibonacci support level. From there, I expect the EUR/USD to regain the 1.5000 handle up to the 1.5100 area.

I have recorded a video describing this trade. Click HERE to access it.

Let me know what you all think about it.

Good luck with your trading!

Great job Greg,
Video plus the forum equals outstanding job.....For those persons who rather to see what you are doing instead of reading can take advantage of this feature. I like both! Looking forward to more videos Greg plus your regular forum.

Kingsley

Million$Man · #**1440** (**permalink**) 11-09-2009, 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

I have the hang of the software now so I should be able to crank them out on a more regular basis. Thanks for your feedback! Have a great trading day!

Greg, thats a great video with a real in depth explanation....
I really look forward to more videos.
Going back to the trade..looks like price didnt retrace and has now flown higher..will keep an eye to see how it plays.
M$M