Originally Posted by abro

yeah thats a good example howevr i figurred all of that myself . well now i use trendline in 5 min and i traded on a demo with all my concentration , with everything i had . i made 900 % in 10 hours . but i guess i was luky . still i think when one knows why the market moves the reason why it moves he can make more then a 100 % a month on realistic basis . here is a micro demo i traded on wednesday . and i never put stops more then 40 pips and trade the daily trends like gaining 60 to 80 pips . and have a good risk to reward ratio .i am a very young man ( TEENAGER ) , but i guess i have discovered the heart of forex . and will practice day and night to be consistent with my method .

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

I had anticipated writing about a USD pair today, but the mood seems to have changed on these pairs with the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls this morning. I learned a long time ago that the best traders react to the market instead of trying to predict it, so for time being anyway, it is time to look at some of the crosses (pairs that do not contain the USD) for potential trading opportunities. One such pair is the EUR/AUD. This pair is in a downtrend and seems poised to continue that bearishness as it moves down towards support. Traders can either sell on a move down through that support level or use their favorite indicator to time their sell entry. One such indicator is the MACD which I have plotted on this 4-hour chart. The sell signal with this indicator is when the MACD line (green line) crosses below the Signal line (black line). Make sure the candle closes before confirming this to make sure you have a good crossover. Also remember to use a protective stop and use a 1:2 risk:reward ratio on your trade. If you risk 100 pips, look for 200 pips in profit.

Originally Posted by abro

i dont know about macd but this is how i would had traded if i was trading this pair . a series of lower highs and lower lows . conitnuation fo the bearish channel .

yes thomas i have blown more then hundred demo accounts and now finnaly i have created a method but i just need to write it down and follow it on daily basis , emotions are the worst part of trading as far as i know . but i will try to follow my method like a robot that will sure work . and the basic thing is go long on resistance break go short on support break , and trade what you see not what you think . put stops , risk reward and etc .

Originally Posted by abro

no i had a real account , but i dint know how to trade . i made some money but then started loosing . so i have kept it aside unitl i becom one of the best traders out there . yes i agree with money mangment . but i trade like euro jpy i have such perfect entries that with a 15 pip stop and a 25 pip limit i win those trade 75 % of the time in demo for now . and some trades with 60 pip limit and a 30 to 40 pip stop and so on. so still i will trade a month in demo with low leverage still i think i can make atleast 100 % .

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

Glad to be of help Troy. I always tell new traders that predicting the release is one thing, but predicting the market's reaction is quite another. There is no way to really know how the market will react as it is based on expectations of the traders involved. The good news is that I believe the best traders react to the market instead of trying to predict what the market will do. The most consistent way I know of to trade the news is in this piece which I have posted here a couple of times, but will post it again as it is applicable every month. Good luck with your trading!


This Friday (June 5 8th) at about 830AM Eastern, the US Department of Labor will release the Nonfarm Payrolls report. This employment report is the most anticipated news release of the month and this month is no exception.

This report can result in increased volatility and a chance to profit handsomely in a short period of time.

However, more often than not, new traders are not profiting but rather losing. The main reason is slippage, which is when your order is filled away from the price you wanted. The reason for slippage is simple, big traders stay away from these events and new traders all try to do the same thing at the same time. If the release is bullish for the EUR/USD, everybody wants to buy at the same time. However, most find that there is nobody willing to sell to them at their price. But eventually your order is filled, but at the seller’s price. Soon you find the market moving against you and you exit to keep your losses from getting too big. But what about those who were selling to you? As the market continues to fall, you start to wonder about these traders who sold to you and the fact that they are now making money. What did they do differently?

These traders were playing the reversal and taking advantage of the fact that the first move after a release is often based on emotions and wrong. Here is a 5-minute chart and an example of a reversal after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls. We can see that just before the release, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.4892. After the release, the market started to rally up to near the 1.4940 level. The market then started to reverse and traders who were playing the reverse sold at the price the market was trading just before the release. The assumption here is that all traders who bought after the release are now in a losing trade and are selling to get out. So these new traders sell at 1.4892 to get in and use a 50 pip stop with a 100 pip limit order to take profit, which is what we recommend in our DailyFX Courses. This is our 1:2 risk:reward ratio and allows us to be profitable if only winning 40% of these setups. The market soon moved down 100 pips from the 1.4892 entry and rewarded those who were patient and reacted to the market environment rather than the emotional first response to the release. These reversal traders will also use the EUR/USD as much as possible in these situations because of the increased volume and better fills. But you don’t have to be first to get into the trade to be right, you just have to be patient and react to the market and not the news release. The EUR/USD doesn’t act like this on every release, but it does frequently enough to make this a valuable strategy.


You can see this release traded live with a DailyFX analyst. More at this link:

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/q-dai...tml#post285701

Originally Posted by abro

i think thomas you knew what would had happened at the news. release , first the market moved up , then it moved down .

And i like one of your thoughts that good traders dont predict the market instead they react according to the market moves . thats why in my opinion elliot waves and delta decreases the confidence with in you when you are prooven wrong . and like you thought to be short but the market went up . then you will always want to short the market instead of buying just because of your bias . this is very wrong in some of the traders here . like joel kruger , he is a good trader but he went all the way short on gbp usd and other pairs . there was no point for him to short until the daily resistance which was at 1.6670 . or if the bullish channel would had been broken in the 4 hourlys then . well the point is reacting on the market moves is better then the prediction of it . and i fully agree on this .

Originally Posted by arsenal

I have been hearing this terminology very often. In many cases the trend is easy to identify, however, in some situations this is very difficult. For example, in the existing market situations USD pairs have been bullish (except where USD is the base currency in which case they are bearish). This trend has started since early April. Now my confusion is if I look at the daily chart for a year, it shows that the long term trend is down while the short-term (for the past two months) trend is up. So when we say trade with trend, what do we exactly mean, short term trend (two to three months) or longer term trends?

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

Fair enough...but keep in mind that there are a million ways to make money in the markets, but I think that there are only a few that would work for each individual trader. We have to find what works for us and let the other traders find whats works for them.

Originally Posted by abro

i am not cricising him in any way . well this is true there are millions of ways . and we cant write our every trade in the forum .

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

With the USD strength noted after the Friday release of the Nonfarm Payrolls and a deeper than expected reversal against the prevailing trend, we should look for USD weakness with a certain amount of caution. That being said, it appears that the GBP remains one of the stronger currencies into the beginning of this week. So perhaps a buy setup on the GBP/USD is the relatively safest way to play the potential USD weakness. This pair has pulled back down to support and has bounced back to the upside. Traders should their own approach to identifying the entry with an MACD crossover being just one that could be used. Initial protective stops should be placed below support with target to take profits being set as twice that risk for our 1:2 risk:reward ratio.

Originally Posted by abro

yes i like this iin gbp that when it falls it falls heavily when it goes up it goes up rapidly . i sure felt the reversal by using my trend lines. 1.5880 was a good entry with stops at 1.5795 and target 1.6075