Thread: Trend of the Day

May this day be the best, and the blessed one of all. As things continue on, I know that things, all around, will get better as time goes on. Again, to all, a Happy New Year.

The Euro is Setting Up to Go Higher

Santa Claus was not been kind to the Euro through the month of Dececember as it has declined 6% against the dollar.


However, the lumps of coal that Santa gave the Euro may turn into diamonds in the coming sessions as a the daily Stochastics Oscillator, an indicator used to identify when a currency pair is overbought or oversold has just given a buy signal.

Look to either buy the 2-pip break above the recent December 29th high of 1.4457 with a stop placed 10 pips below the 4-hour low of 1.4269 that was made on January 4th or enter at market.

Look to target the 1.4950 area which is the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level of the 11/25 swing high (1.5143) to the 12/22/09 low (1.4217).


Read more: DailyFX - The Trend of the Day - EUR/USD DailyFX - The Trend of the Day - EUR/USD

Happy new year Greg. Should it climb higher,it will be interesting to see where this pair encounters resistance. The huge rate of decline from the 1.5143 high makes me think this pair will encounter real selling pressure at the 38 Fib of the recent decline, 1.4576. Personally i am leaning towards a sell here with a stop just above the 1.47 area. If this does not work out i'll try something similar at the 61.8 Fib area, both trades potentially targeting the 1.4130 area (38 Fib of last years rise). Living in Ireland (don't know if you know just how bad things are here) i'm probably more skeptical on the EUR than i should be, only Greece trumps us for misery it seems!. I think all of these offer good risk/reward set-ups because, while i still consider this an uptrend, i am a lot less certain and think its almost equally likely this is a correction of some overselling on a short term basis,and like trades like this if they are off daily charts rather than short term ones, you feel like you are playing at the major levels of importance.
Either way i will buy at 1.4130 area, its such a big level with a stop below 1.40 that it might be the catalyst for a retest of the highs.

Hi Greg, welcome back!

Please please please , can you have a good look at what Gold is doing and tell me if you think its more the chance to see it down at that $1018 you were talking about or as other traders feel, we are done with the pullback and its going to new highs?

After you mentioned $1,018 I am very insecure to take a long position.

Thanks

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Hi Greg, welcome back!

Please please please , can you have a good look at what Gold is doing and tell me if you think its more the chance to see it down at that $1018 you were talking about or as other traders feel, we are done with the pullback and its going to new highs?

After you mentioned $1,018 I am very insecure to take a long position.

Thanks

Hello Trend of the Day people. I am back I am going to post the Trend of the Day and then answer your posts!! Let's make this an awesome 2010!

After breaking above its December 10th high of 7317 Kiwi dollar is now being challenged by a daily downtrend line
that extends from the October 21st high of 7336. This could be formidable resistance that will either drive price back within the
channel or give away to fresh new highs in the 7600 area. With Non Farm payroll up this Friday January 8th look for some choppy sideways action
leading up to the very important U.S. employment announcement. All eyes will be on this first NFP on the New Year which may set the tone for the the rest of 2010.
Drop to a 4-hour chart to identify the double bottom on January 4th and 5th at .7319 which would be a good place to place a stop. Use your favorite oscillator like Stochastic to find an entry in the direction of the tren

Originally Posted by supa

Hi Greg,

From your experience, please are you able to help me compare and contrast prorealtime chart with intellichart?

tnks.

Supa

I am a big fan of Pro Real time because I can cycle through daily and weekly charts very quickly. The drawing tools are very quick and response. However, Intellicharts has a number of features I really like that ProReal time does not have:
Fibonacci time projections
Fibonacci extension target lines
Back testing of strategies
Intelliscript language for making your own alerts
A huge library of indicators
Built in Trading Simulator******* I use this a lot.

So I use both.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

After breaking above its December 10th high of 7317 Kiwi dollar is now being challenged by a daily downtrend line
that extends from the October 21st high of 7336. This could be formidable resistance that will either drive price back within the
channel or give away to fresh new highs in the 7600 area. With Non Farm payroll up this Friday January 8th look for some choppy sideways action
leading up to the very important U.S. employment announcement. All eyes will be on this first NFP on the New Year which may set the tone for the the rest of 2010.
Drop to a 4-hour chart to identify the double bottom on January 4th and 5th at .7319 which would be a good place to place a stop. Use your favorite oscillator like Stochastic to find an entry in the direction of the tren

Happy New Year to all..hope you had a good one. Always hard to get back to normal after a long break and so much alcohol LOL.
Greg i was looking at the same trade yesterday, however I see yesterdays candle closed above the TL, daily Stochs are showing overbought but no signs of rolling over as yet....not sure about this one...also price seems to be above the 200/100 and 50 SMA...


I am currently short on USD JPY as it failed to get past the 200 SMA and is below the short term TL drawn from the 27/11/09 low. Am i correct is thinking that the trend is still down on this pair?

Happy pipping for 2010..and thanks to everyone for all their input for last year
M$M

Originally Posted by Million$Man

Happy New Year to all..hope you had a good one. Always hard to get back to normal after a long break and so much alcohol LOL.
Greg i was looking at the same trade yesterday, however I see yesterdays candle closed above the TL, daily Stochs are showing overbought but no signs of rolling over as yet....not sure about this one...also price seems to be above the 200/100 and 50 SMA...


I am currently short on USD JPY as it failed to get past the 200 SMA and is below the short term TL drawn from the 27/11/09 low. Am i correct is thinking that the trend is still down on this pair?

Happy pipping for 2010..and thanks to everyone for all their input for last year
M$M

Yes M$M, USD/JPY looks ripe for the fall. I put a target at around the 89.96 area.

Originally Posted by Missing

Happy new year Greg. Should it climb higher,it will be interesting to see where this pair encounters resistance. The huge rate of decline from the 1.5143 high makes me think this pair will encounter real selling pressure at the 38 Fib of the recent decline, 1.4576. Personally i am leaning towards a sell here with a stop just above the 1.47 area. If this does not work out i'll try something similar at the 61.8 Fib area, both trades potentially targeting the 1.4130 area (38 Fib of last years rise). Living in Ireland (don't know if you know just how bad things are here) i'm probably more skeptical on the EUR than i should be, only Greece trumps us for misery it seems!. I think all of these offer good risk/reward set-ups because, while i still consider this an uptrend, i am a lot less certain and think its almost equally likely this is a correction of some overselling on a short term basis,and like trades like this if they are off daily charts rather than short term ones, you feel like you are playing at the major levels of importance.
Either way i will buy at 1.4130 area, its such a big level with a stop below 1.40 that it might be the catalyst for a retest of the highs.

I am mildly bearish as we get further into the Box (38.2%-78.6% retracement zone). I was short AUD/USD which was good for a few hundred pips but when the daily stochastic came up above the 20 line, AUD/USD has been on a tear skyward. Euro is doing the same thing, steep decline and then daily Stochastic crossing up from below the 20 line. So I figure a short covering rally would be the reason for a Euro rise rather than any fundamental strength in light of your first-hand observations from the Eurozone.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Hi Greg, welcome back!

Please please please , can you have a good look at what Gold is doing and tell me if you think its more the chance to see it down at that $1018 you were talking about or as other traders feel, we are done with the pullback and its going to new highs?

After you mentioned $1,018 I am very insecure to take a long position.

Thanks

The current downtrend in gold may take a break and move back to BOX before moving down. With Daily Stochastics hooking up, gold may move to up to as high as $1,181.57 before moving lower to my target price. See the attached chart:

Happy New Year Greg, I wish you all the best in the coming year.

NzdUsd. Am I reading this wrong, Is the trend not down? If it is down then I don't understand the stop placement below the double bottom on the 4rd and 5th.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

After breaking above its December 10th high of 7317 Kiwi dollar is now being challenged by a daily downtrend line
that extends from the October 21st high of 7336. This could be formidable resistance that will either drive price back within the
channel or give away to fresh new highs in the 7600 area. With Non Farm payroll up this Friday January 8th look for some choppy sideways action
leading up to the very important U.S. employment announcement. All eyes will be on this first NFP on the New Year which may set the tone for the the rest of 2010.
Drop to a 4-hour chart to identify the double bottom on January 4th and 5th at .7319 which would be a good place to place a stop. Use your favorite oscillator like Stochastic to find an entry in the direction of the tren

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Yes M$M, USD/JPY looks ripe for the fall. I put a target at around the 89.96 area.

I don`t understand that.

USD/JPY chart you showed, it broke up the downtrend and weekly macd was nice and green....then it goes back down.

Same confusion for Gold: the weekly MACD has turned red but others traders tell me to look what happened the previous time it did the same....I looked and indeed it went nowhere, then up and up and up till about $1,240.

Then, do you remember the one you liked before Christmas?

EURN/NZD

I did not act quickly so I missed the initial gain on the long position and I decided that I needed to learn more and wait after Christmas.

Now, this is what happened since:

weekly:




daily:





either all are false signals, or I`m still not understanding anything.

On the side note: is it possible to split the screen in 2 and watch 2 pairs at the same time on MT4 rather then opening twice the software?
I keep seeing that to know where Gold moves, I need to watch EUR/USD... (as we know Gold and USD are inversely related).

Thank you

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Happy New Year Greg, I wish you all the best in the coming year.

NzdUsd. Am I reading this wrong, Is the trend not down? If it is down then I don't understand the stop placement below the double bottom on the 4rd and 5th.

We have has lower swing highs and lower swing lows up to 3 days ago. Shorting at a close below this trend line is just as valid as a buy above a breakout. We are in very dicey territory.

So the intent behind your post is to go long?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

We have has lower swing highs and lower swing lows up to 3 days ago. Shorting at a close below this trend line is just as valid as a buy above a breakout. We are in very dicey territory.