Thread: Trend of the Day

Last months up move in the Loonie fooled me into believing the trend had indeed reversed. But with SSI turning extreme favoring a short position as retail traders are long by a margin of 3:1, the down trend looks like it is about to resume. Look to short USD/CAD on a break below the 1.0221 area. Look for a 2:1 risk to reward price target using a 4-hour chart to determine an stop level.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

SSI is showing that 70% of traders are long. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator and the daily trend is down. Look for USD/JPY to continue to move lower. Though USD is the base currency, USD/JPY marches to its own beat. Look for the 88.56 area. This pair is on the move at the time of this writing.

It took a little over a week but the profit target was hit. SSI is still over three which could result in more USD/JPY losses.

USD/CHF is trading near a daily uptrend line above its 200 SMA. A stop at 10642 and entry at 10726 could be entered with a limit set for 10947. A more conservative trade would be to wait for price to demonstrate some sort of reversal candlestick pattern at trend line support.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Last months up move in the Loonie fooled me into believing the trend had indeed reversed. But with SSI turning extreme favoring a short position as retail traders are long by a margin of 3:1, the down trend looks like it is about to resume. Look to short USD/CAD on a break below the 1.0221 area. Look for a 2:1 risk to reward price target using a 4-hour chart to determine an stop level.

SSI is in extreme territory as more than 80% of traders are long USD/CAD. Four traders are long for every one that is short. However, USD/CAD has not yet broken the October 15th 2009 low of 1.0204.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

AUD/CHF continues to look strong breaking above Friday's daily high of .9634. Look for the .9975 -1.000 2009 high to come into play over the next few days.

The Aussie has been exceptionally strong against the majors and the Swiss Franc is no exception. The .9800 handle is being challenged as I write this.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

We did not get the pullback that we were waiting for as EUR/GBP pushed through the .9000 and .9100 handles with ease touching the .9150 area before pulling back to the .9080 area. Buying a 2 pip break above the .9150 area with a 100 pip stop and a 200 pip limit may be the only way to get aboard this fast moving train.

Not much on the EUR/GBP front as the runaway train has been derailed. The March 5th 4-hour swing low could be used to place a stop in the 8974 area. Entering long at .9041 and targeting .9180 may be a better trade than waiting for the breakout.

hai

i buyed EUR/AUD at 1.50481 now it is running at 150 pips loss. Shall i wait for conformed uptrend,shall i wait for my profit

i ordered Sell on NZD/USD at0.68710 now it is running 150 pips loss. Shall i wait for conformed downtrend.shall i wait for my profit

Please guide in this order

Originally Posted by fxskg

hai

i buyed EUR/AUD at 1.50481 now it is running at 150 pips loss. Shall i wait for conformed uptrend,shall i wait for my profit

i ordered Sell on NZD/USD at0.68710 now it is running 150 pips loss. Shall i wait for conformed downtrend.shall i wait for my profit

Please guide in this order

Hello fxskg! The Daily trend of the EUR/AUD is down. We would only look for opportunities to sell this pair and avoid going long. Trading with the daily trend keeps the odds in our favor.

NZD/USD has bounced up from its 200 SMA and the MACD is moving higher, no reason to short this pair either.

In either case, you should always trade with a stop and risk no more than 2%-5% of your account on any one trade.

The Aussie continues to show why its the king of currencies as it has beat down all of the majors. The AUD/JPY has consolidated in a triangle formation on a daily chart and remains above the 200 SMA. Look to go long at market (81.92) with a stop at 80.98. Look to target the 84.00 area

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The Aussie continues to show why its the king of currencies as it has beat down all of the majors. The AUD/JPY has consolidated in a triangle formation on a daily chart and remains above the 200 SMA. Look to go long at market (81.92) with a stop at 80.98. Look to target the 84.00 area

Hello Greg.

This is my first post in this forum. Thanks for your effort. I'm learning a lot.

AUD/JPY: Why do you set the target at 84,00 area. I can't see anythig there. Perhaps only R/R ratio. Why don't you set the take profit arond the last max. at 86:00?

Thanks in advance.

Originally Posted by antoniomago

Hello Greg.

This is my first post in this forum. Thanks for your effort. I'm learning a lot.

AUD/JPY: Why do you set the target at 84,00 area. I can't see anythig there. Perhaps only R/R ratio. Why don't you set the take profit arond the last max. at 86:00?

Thanks in advance.

Thanks for your post! Welcome to the forum. I usually set 1:2 risk to reward targets on the trades I post. Occasionally, if I don't see a lot of resistance or if we come off a significant low, like in the case of the GBP/JPY, trade I use Fibonacci projections for a greater target.

However, there is minor resistance at 84.65, 85.74 and major 86.28 level that you are referring to. There is Fib resistance created from the fall from the Jan 11 high of 86.19 to the Feb 5 low of 76.18. The .786 Fibonacci level comes in at 84.09. It could blow right through that and head up to 88.97 but with all that resistance, why risk the 1:2 higher probability target.

Trading multiple lots and taking half the position off at the 1:2 and allowing the rest of the position to run with a stop at break even is a way to advantage of a further rise in this pair if that develops. If not, you would still have a "riskless" trade to milk the most out of this move.

Great question! You've got me thinking to raise my limit on this one!

I am looking for the Euro to bounce from this daily trend line that extends back from the November highs at around 13750. From here we could see the down trend come back in force taking out the 13418 area. Wait for price confirmation of the trend line. However, the Euro has room to rally up to the 14095 area which is the 38.2% retracement of the move for the November 25th 15143 high down to the 13434 low. MACD and Stochastics are angled in such a way that we could penetrate the red daily trend line temporarily. Again waiting for a confirmation is the key.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

SSI is in extreme territory as more than 80% of traders are long USD/CAD. Four traders are long for every one that is short. However, USD/CAD has not yet broken the October 15th 2009 low of 1.0204.

USD/CAD has broken below the psychologically important 1.0200 area. I'd like to see the Loonie close on a daily basis below this support area that has held so long.

Hello Greg,

Thanks for the info.
I had a short entry order set up in anticipation of a breakout at 1.01800. It was a bit of a surprise to see my open position after I got home uni this afternoon (UK). I've got a 90 pip trailing stop, so I hope there won't be too much retracement to the upside. This is my first trade in a quite a while, so I hope it works out.

All the best,

Lee.

Does anyone know about options on the swiss franc ETF , symbol FXF ? The CBOE option chain shows some weird stuff like multiple options listed per strike and very illiquid ... is it safe to trade this ?

The Euro ETF , symbol FXE , is more liquid but the profit potential on the FXF looks better .