Thread: Trend of the Day

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Good Morning Greg, Thanks for your thoughts on the EUR/GBP yesterday, I am keeping an eye on it.
On the USD/CAD I have included a jpeg of a trade where I got stopped out (Again) Can you please tell me what you think I may have done wrong again, again, again. Things seemed to be going OK then someone built the Empire State Building in 15 min.

Could you post a larger chart, Robert. When I try to expand yours the picture distorts terribly.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello KP. I first learned to use the Stochastic in 1995 when I read Trading for a Living, by Alexander Elder. It has served me well since my main focus is not the indicator but price action at or near support and resistance. Stochastics helps me to identify support or resistance, price is what I use to trigger the trade. In addition the more periods used like 14 or 15, the smoother and fewer false signals I get. Using 8 or 5 for the period provides too many crossovers.

Thanks Greg, I am doing some comparing and see 5,3,3 as earlier signal which could be good and bad. On 4/16 daily candle close GBP/USD ask price the 14,3,3 crossed over downward and using 5,3,3 it did not crossover. Why might this be? That in this case 14,3,3 was the early signal versus 5,3,3?

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Thanks Greg, I am doing some comparing and see 5,3,3 as earlier signal which could be good and bad. On 4/16 daily candle close GBP/USD ask price the 14,3,3 crossed over downward and using 5,3,3 it did not crossover. Why might this be? That in this case 14,3,3 was the early signal versus 5,3,3?

Since 5,3,3 is a faster setting for Stochastics, it probably crossed a couple of times earlier before the actual price movement.

OK, Greg, sorry I took so long to get back to you, had an emergancy to deal with. I dont know if this pic is better, I have an expanded desktop so when i show you the chart alone its like half of the desktop.. Remember my prob. This is what i pasted: Good Morning Greg, Thanks for your thoughts on the EUR/GBP yesterday, I am keeping an eye on it.
On the USD/CAD I have included a jpeg of a trade where I got stopped out (Again) Can you please tell me what you think I may have done wrong again, again, again. Things seemed to be going OK then someone built the Empire State Building in 15 min.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Could you post a larger chart, Robert. When I try to expand yours the picture distorts terribly.

Hi Greg,

I am not sure I totally understand the logic of your downward trend line. There are only two connecting points, beginning and end. Isn't the idea to connect the highs, of course if you connected the Nov. 27 and Feb. 10 highs you would not have a resistance line, but a possible support line. Can you make any comments and maybe recommend a resource on trend line drawing, slopes of the line etc. I may be over complicating and over thinking it, or maybe not...??
I suppose trend lines cannot perfectly connect all highs and lows. Are you using Speed Lines? If so which line is which. I am going top youtube to learn more about speed lines.

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Hi Greg,

I am not sure I totally understand the logic of your downward trend line. There are only two connecting points, beginning and end. Isn't the idea to connect the highs, of course if you connected the Nov. 27 and Feb. 10 highs you would not have a resistance line, but a possible support line. Can you make any comments and maybe recommend a resource on trend line drawing, slopes of the line etc. I may be over complicating and over thinking it, or maybe not...??
I suppose trend lines cannot perfectly connect all highs and lows. Are you using Speed Lines? If so which line is which. I am going top youtube to learn more about speed lines.

The red downward Trend line initially connects 4 swing high points. The fifth point is a test of this established trend line which as you can see price has tested an bounced forming bearish engulfing candle. This is more than enough to establish a trend line. See the attached chart:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

OK, Greg, sorry I took so long to get back to you, had an emergancy to deal with. I dont know if this pic is better, I have an expanded desktop so when i show you the chart alone its like half of the desktop.. Remember my prob. This is what i pasted: Good Morning Greg, Thanks for your thoughts on the EUR/GBP yesterday, I am keeping an eye on it.
On the USD/CAD I have included a jpeg of a trade where I got stopped out (Again) Can you please tell me what you think I may have done wrong again, again, again. Things seemed to be going OK then someone built the Empire State Building in 15 min.

Thanks for reposting this. I can see your chart much better. I can see that you went long in a downward trend channel. Also MACD was crossing its signal line which is bearish. Price was over its 200 SMA but Stochastics was also overbought as well. On a daily chart, USDCAD made a lower low and a lower high which indicates that a trend reversal is in the works. See the attached chart:

Hi Greg, I think you miss understood. I did not BUY, I Sold. I have included two other charts of USD/CAD , EUR/GBP Both sells both stopped out. There are 2 hour and 4 hour charts daily on both pairs is down. People tell me I am not doing anything wrong but I must be. If you can, Take a look again and with sells in mind, I would appreciate anything you have to offer. Sorry to do you this.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Thanks for reposting this. I can see your chart much better. I can see that you went long in a downward trend channel. Also MACD was crossing its signal line which is bearish. Price was over its 200 SMA but Stochastics was also overbought as well. On a daily chart, USDCAD made a lower low and a lower high which indicates that a trend reversal is in the works. See the attached chart:

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Hi Greg, I think you miss understood. I did not BUY, I Sold. I have included two other charts of USD/CAD , EUR/GBP Both sells both stopped out. There are 2 hour and 4 hour charts daily on both pairs is down. People tell me I am not doing anything wrong but I must be. If you can, Take a look again and with sells in mind, I would appreciate anything you have to offer. Sorry to do you this.

No worries. On you original post, you did not indicate whether you went long or short. Could you give me the exact rates that you went short including your stop and limit?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Robert. The outlook for the EUR/GBP looks bullish short to medium term and bearish long term. There was a breakout out of a tight 85 pip consolidation area which could take the pair up to trade between 8950 and 9136 before heading lower. EUR/GBP is oversold on a daily chart and some of this has to unwind before further declines can be seen.

Hello Robert I wrote this about EURGBP on April 20th that we were in a breakout situation to the upside. Shorting this pair would be premature considering the strong 4-hour support from April 15 to April 22.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The Loonie broke the March 23rd low of 1.2201 and made a new swing low on April 15th of 1.2012. This has established a new down trend channel. However prices have rallied from this low and should run into heavy resistance from,the 38.2% Fibonacci level and trend line resistance of 1.2393 through the 1.2634 61.8% Fibonacci level. A successful test of this resistance channel would see the USD/CAD test the 1.1800 area. A close above the 1.27000 would invalidate this bearish scenario

Hello Robert. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Your trade was technically correct. However, Technically correct trades do not always make money and technically incorrect trades can make money sometimes. This is why we use stops and maintain at least a 1:2 risk reward ratio so losses are small and winners are twice the size of the losers.

Greg, I always have a limit that is at least twice my stop and sometimes three times. My trade on the EUR/GBP pair occured a bit early, the MACD did not cross yet, but the result would have been the same. t the moment she has shot up past the 0.8950 mark and testing the 0.9000 area. Somehow Greg, I am hitting those losses alot more than the winners, I am in a steady downward slide. I suppose it is possible that I am getting all of the losses out of the way for a string of winners.
Thanks Greg, its always a pleasure.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Robert. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Your trade was technically correct. However, Technically correct trades do not always make money and technically incorrect trades can make money sometimes. This is why we use stops and maintain at least a 1:2 risk reward ratio so losses are small and winners are twice the size of the losers.

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg, I always have a limit that is at least twice my stop and sometimes three times. My trade on the EUR/GBP pair occured a bit early, the MACD did not cross yet, but the result would have been the same. Somehow Greg, I am hitting those losses alot more than the winners, I am in a steady downward slide. I suppose it is possible that I am getting all of the losses out of the way for a string of winners.
Thanks Greg, its always a pleasure.

You are very welcome, Robert. I like your positive attitude. This current market is difficult. There is a lot of indecision that I suspect has something to do with the results of the banking "stress tests" due out next month. We could be in a sloppy trading range until then.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

...This current market is difficult. There is a lot of indecision that I suspect has something to do with the results of the banking "stress tests" due out next month. We could be in a sloppy trading range until then.

Good to hear your assessment, Greg. I am getting almost no winning trades for the last month or so. It's hard to learn from your losses without a few winning trades to compare them to.

Greg, someone brought this pair to my attention GBP/JPY. Seems to be consolidating a bit with a possible further downward move to 135.540. It is testing the support trend line at around 142.36. I think it could go long to 150.00 or even 150.51. What do you think here and what should I be looking for at closing. Much thanks.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

You are very welcome, Robert. I like your positive attitude. This current market is difficult. There is a lot of indecision that I suspect has something to do with the results of the banking "stress tests" due out next month. We could be in a sloppy trading range until then.