Thread: Trend of the Day

Originally Posted by billh

Good to hear your assessment, Greg. I am getting almost no winning trades for the last month or so. It's hard to learn from your losses without a few winning trades to compare them to.

Keep the faith, Bill. Even the best traders go through some dry times. I remember reading about Buzzy Schwartz a trader who went to "pencil and paper" (paper trading) after a string of losses until he got back in rhythm with the market and then scaled down his position size to a very small amount until he could continue. The FXCM demo accounts are a good way to this as well. Good luck to you and thanks for sharing!

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg, someone brought this pair to my attention GBP/JPY. Seems to be consolidating a bit with a possible further downward move to 135.540. It is testing the support trend line at around 142.36. I think it could go long to 150.00 or even 150.51. What do you think here and what should I be looking for at closing. Much thanks.

I would like to see price get above 145.21 which is the two-day high. This would be a Missouri "show me state" trade. This means that I want to see a strong move through this two-day high before getting involved. A close below the trend channel would be extremely bearish. There seems to be negative daily MACD divergence combined with extremely weak UK fundamentals. This could go either way. Just my 2 cents.

After a 10 day decline from the 137.40 April 6th high, EUR/JPY has put in a double bottom at the March 30th low of 126.31. 130.47 is the 38.2 Fibonacci resistance level and the daily down trend line. A break of this line would give us confidence that this trend will continue. EUR/JPY may continue to base for a few days before attempting a break. A close below the 126.31 would nullify this bullish scenario and open up 122.00

Good morning Greg, that is a powerful 2 cents, I did not look at it based on the two day high and thats where your experience shows, (When I grow up I want to be just like you), Very often our assement of the pairs is based on indicators, and that may very well be the mistake being made by those of us catching tail. However, having that three dimentional vision of a pair is not easy to learn.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

I would like to see price get above 145.21 which is the two-day high. This would be a Missouri "show me state" trade. This means that I want to see a strong move through this two-day high before getting involved. A close below the trend channel would be extremely bearish. There seems to be negative daily MACD divergence combined with extremely weak UK fundamentals. This could go either way. Just my 2 cents.

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Good morning Greg, that is a powerful 2 cents, I did not look at it based on the two day high and thats where your experience shows, (When I grow up I want to be just like you), Very often our assement of the pairs is based on indicators, and that may very well be the mistake being made by those of us catching tail. However, having that three dimentional vision of a pair is not easy to learn.

Thanks for the kind words, Robert. That GBPJPY daily low of 140.59 looks like it will hold. It's still early yet.

This pair has been struggling to get above the 1.2500 handle and keep the hope of an up trend alive. However, the Loonie has made another lower swing high to seal its fate as a down trending currency pair. The first test of the daily down trend line formed by connecting the March 9th high of 1.3064 April 1st high of 1.2713 came April 21st and again on April 22nd. Price was soundly rejected. Look for the 200 MA to come into play at 1.1785

Good morning Greg, A little confused, at the moment the USD/CAD daily trend is downward, and although the is a signal from the SSD to sell, there is non yet from the MACD. Also the 2hour chart is seriously oversold. The actual string of red candles looks lovely but on one chart timing for a sell is good and on the other it seems way too late. What am I not seeing?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

This pair has been struggling to get above the 1.2500 handle and keep the hope of an up trend alive. However, the Loonie has made another lower swing high to seal its fate as a down trending currency pair. The first test of the daily down trend line formed by connecting the March 9th high of 1.3064 April 1st high of 1.2713 came April 21st and again on April 22nd. Price was soundly rejected. Look for the 200 MA to come into play at 1.1785

As I first stated on April 20th:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The Loonie broke the March 23rd low of 1.2201 and made a new swing low on April 15th of 1.2012. This has established a new down trend channel. However prices have rallied from this low and should run into heavy resistance from,the 38.2% Fibonacci level and trend line resistance of 1.2393 through the 1.2634 61.8% Fibonacci level. A successful test of this resistance channel would see the USD/CAD test the 1.1800 area. A close above the 1.27000 would invalidate this bearish scenario

Thanks for your questions, Robert. This gives me the opportunity to go more in depth on this trade. First, its important to realize that oscillators can remain oversold for a prolonged period of time. This is why Price behavior at or around support and resistance is Indicator #1. The two swing points connected to show resistance can be clearly seen on a 4-hour chart as well. See the attached chart. If fact, the 4 hour mirrors the daily which is a powerful confirmation. For several days earlier, the 4-hour trend was up until it met this resistance. Then the 4-hour chart joined the Daily Trend.

Here is the USD/CAD chart from April 20, 2009.

Thanks Greg, I opened a possitioned yesterday on this pair at 1.22910 after only 56pips I moved my stop to 0 and had an automatic trailing stop of 50 pips on it. smoved down further then pulled back to hit my trailing stop at 1.22357 and has since continued down to where it is now. 1.20824 . If my stop where not so tight I would have hit my limit with a 180 pip gain. So , I gained about 56 pips when I should have had 180 pips. hence my apprehention.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Here is the USD/CAD chart from April 20, 2009.

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Thanks Greg, I opened a possitioned yesterday on this pair at 1.22910 after only 56pips I moved my stop to 0 and had an automatic trailing stop of 50 pips on it. smoved down further then pulled back to hit my trailing stop at 1.22357 and has since continued down to where it is now. 1.20824 . If my stop where not so tight I would have hit my limit with a 180 pip gain. So , I gained about 56 pips when I should have had 180 pips. hence my apprehention.

You are very welcome, Robert. Congratulations taking out some gain. USD/CAD dropped to a low of 1.2072 which was 106 pips from my post on the Trend of the Day. It's important to remember that if the reasons for entering the trade have not changed after being stopped out, then the trade may need to be re-entered if it still fits within risk management parameters. I am not a fan of automatic trailing stops as you can easily lock in a loss or lock in less than an optimal.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The red downward Trend line initially connects 4 swing high points. The fifth point is a test of this established trend line which as you can see price has tested an bounced forming bearish engulfing candle. This is more than enough to establish a trend line. See the attached chart:

Falling some 382 pips from my first post on 4/21/2009, GBP/CHF has found interim support at 1.6621. The trend remains down but a retrace may be in the works before a further down move to the 1.6400 area commences.

Hi Greg,

What do you think of GBP/JPY? It seems to have broken and closed below the support line on 4 hrs chart.

Thanks,
Steve

Good day Greg, hope the weekend was good to you. After making the decission to re-enter with a sell possition on the USD/CAD on friday, she played around right at my entry point 1.20801 then climbed to 1.24749 dropped a liiile below my entry then decided to bite me in the (stop possition). I can only laugh. just about 50% down from my initial capital, I am sure I am doing something wrong. I think I am going to stop step back and go to the demo. I need to be kicked or something. LOL

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

You are very welcome, Robert. Congratulations taking out some gain. USD/CAD dropped to a low of 1.2072 which was 106 pips from my post on the Trend of the Day. It's important to remember that if the reasons for entering the trade have not changed after being stopped out, then the trade may need to be re-entered if it still fits within risk management parameters. I am not a fan of automatic trailing stops as you can easily lock in a loss or lock in less than an optimal.

Originally Posted by steve_88

Hi Greg,

What do you think of GBP/JPY? It seems to have broken and closed below the support line on 4 hrs chart.

Thanks,
Steve

The close below the trend line is bearish, however two dojis tell us that the market is not yet convinced about selling this pair----yet