Thread: Trend of the Day

Our trend for the day is EUR/AUD. The daily uptrend that has been in effect since the end of July has taken the pair some 2738 pips from 200 SMA at 1.6555 to the October 6th new 7-year high of 1.9293. MACD and stochastics are pointed up with room to go higher and EUR/AUD is trading above trend line support in the 1.7750 neighborhood. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise 100 basis point rate cut continues to fuel this up trend. Look for a break above the 1.9293 high to confirm the continuation of this trend. Any pullbacks should be looked at as buying opportunities.

On 9/25 I posted the following daily trend:

Our trend for the day is USD/SGD. The US dollar up trend from the middle of July from the 1.3458 area up to the 1.4482 September 11th high has fallen some 240 pips before finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Marked by a bullish Harami pattern, USD/SGD looks to re-challenge the 14482 level. Extreme dollar bearish sentiment could recoil this pair higher if and when the $700 billion financial system bailout is approved
Today, the USDSGD has exceeded our target reaching a high of 1.4527. Stochastics has entered the overbought zone and negative divergence in MACD forecasts weakness in prices some point in the future. This may be just a minor pullback in a longer term uptrend.

GBP/JPY is our Trend for today. As global markets continue to panic, look for GBP/JPY to make new lows. If prices break and close below the Friday low of 165.30 look for GBP/JPY to reach into the 155.00 area. GBP/JPY continues to trade below its 200 MA making new daily lows. MACD is below the horizontal ‘0’ reference line. Any rallies to the upper resistance lines should be looked at as selling opportunities.

Aussie Dollar drops to new multi-year lows on the heels of a 733 point drop of the U.S. stock market which triggered Asian markets multi-year lows as well. Daily oscillators are oversold and a relief rally would give traders a better entry to sell this pair. However, a failure to rise to Fibonacci resistance would place us on alert to sell when price breaks below the .6314 level.

Though the Daily Trend remains down, oversold daily oscillators show that the trend may take a break allowing prices to move higher. Only time will tell if this retrace higher is only temporary or part of a larger trend reversal. Trend line resistance appears at .6505, the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level of the .6956-. 5775 swing.
A short opportunity will be apparent when NZD/USD closes below .5775 or bounces down from the .6708-.6505 Fibonacci resistance zones. Trading in the direction of the retracement can be profitable but extremely risky and not recommended as the daily downtrend may reassert itself.

GBP/AUD has been in a strong up trend since its September breakout from a tight consolidation reaching a high of 2.7062 on October 8th. Fibonacci support begins at the 38.2% level near 2.4515, the 50% level at 2.3698 and the 61.8% support level comes in at 2.2882. For you Elliott wave fans, the daily chart looks to be consolidating in a complex wave 4 correction that is forming a pennant in an uptrend. Usually, pennants in up trends break to the upside. A measuring objective would take us into the 2.8000 area and beyond.

Hello Paul,

This is a better place to post your questions and opinions as I check this regularly. Thanks for your feedback!

The October 8th breakout at 1.5371 from a steep downward trend channel marks a possible trend reversal. EURCAD has run up to a high of 1.6131 before backing off slightly. We don't want to chase a runaway market. Rather, we want to wait for the market to come to us. We use Fibonacci to reveal possible hidden levels of support where we can join the trend with a low risk entry. After a huge run-ups patience is the best way to get involved with the trend. Look for support to come in between the 1.5595 and 1.5016 levels.

EUR/USD continues to make new lows breaking down through the psychological 1.3000 round number support region like a hot knife through butter. This is the largest point decline that the Euro has endured since its inception in 1999. After the initial fan fare, the single unit currency debuted in the 1.2000 area and fell over 4000 points to the .8400 area which took around 2 ½ years. The Euros has covered roughly the same ground in a few months. Look to sell on any sign of strength.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

We hit our first target on very volatile trading. After a brief retest of the 1.1116 break out point, USD/CHF continues to power northward. The August triangle breakout allow us to project an initial price target of 1.1627 and a secondary measuring objective of 1.1853.

In my 09/08/2008 post, I stated that the USD/CHF had good momentum to go higher. At the time of this writing, USD/CHF touched 1.1700. The dollar and the yen have been the safe haven currencies of choice during this economic crisis.

Our trend for today is the Aussie Yen. We look for a continuation of the down trend upon a break out from the pennant consolidation. The Yen has been a favorite safe-haven currency as carry trades are unwound. We can measure the height of this pennant and use it as a possible target. This would come in at the 54.63 level.

Our trend for today is the Kiwi Dollar. We look for a continuation of the down trend upon a break out from a sideways rectangle consolidation. The dramatic 100 basis point interest rate cut by the New Zealand central bank should drive NZDUSD lower as the interest rate differential between the US and NZ has been narrowed. Look for a closed, full bodied daily candle below the .5779 level before entry.

USD/CAD is our Trend for Today

This extremely strong trend remains intact. Any weakness should be looked at as an opportunity to go long. Daily oscillators are overbought but they can remain so even though new highs are being made.

On Thursday, 23 October 2008 I wrote:

Our trend for today is the Aussie Yen (AUDJPY).
We look for a continuation of the down trend upon a break out from the pennant consolidation. The Yen has been a favorite safe-haven currency as carry trades are unwound. We can measure the height of this pennant and use it as a possible target. This would come in at the 54.63 level.


In one day Aussie Yen came within 11 pips of its 700 pip price projection. After such a rapid move, look for sideways motion and some sort of retracement back up to the 76.45 area. Look to sell rallies up to resistance or sell a break of the 54.74 low.

Though a tremendous counter trend rally mirroring the US stock market rally took EURJPY to a new 3-day high, the daily trend still remains down. A retracement of the trend does not mark a reversal of the trend. Trading against the trend can be profitable but extremely risky. Look for either bounce from one of the above Fibonacci levels or a break below the 113.29 low as opportunities to trade with this trend.