Thread: Trend of the Day

The June 5th high and the 200 SMA on the daily chart are what the EURGBP needs to get passed in order to have a chance at the .9000 area. See the attached chart

Originally Posted by Elle

Hello,
Thx guys!
I, for sure read you almost every day since 3 months.
Thanks for the good work!
Best,
Elle

Thank you very much. Please post more as you are inclined! It is hard to gauge if we are helping people or not. I appreciate the feedback.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Thank you very much. Please post more as you are inclined! It is hard to gauge if we are helping people or not. I appreciate the feedback.

Oh I will. I just don't want to confuse you with my French/English:-)...
I'm here every day before the New York opening waiting for each post "Trend/Post/Chart of the day".
Enjoy your weekend!

I Have not been by my computer today so I only just got your reply. Thanks Greg. PS: What does the term "Tweezer Bottom" mean?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

There seems to be good support in this 8773 area on a 2-hour chart. The trend remains up. However the 8864 is formidable resistance as the 200 SMA could turn it back

Hi Greg,

Although I don't post often, a quick message to agree your insight and commentary are greatly appreciated. I have a question about a report which I found on DailyFX. This report had a trend strength value ( from 100 to -100 ) for each currency. I believe this daily report is penned by Jamie. Three questions.... Is this report still being written ? How is this value generated ? and Would it be possible to post a link to that report in this forum ? I find it incredibly difficult to find a report once it's bee taken off the main window. Thanks in advance for your help !
Aaron

I want to say - thank you for this!

Originally Posted by Kimaki

I Have not been by my computer today so I only just got your reply. Thanks Greg. PS: What does the term "Tweezer Bottom" mean?

Tweezer bottom Two or more candlesticks with matching bottoms. The size or color of the candlestick does not matter. Like the two wicks at support of the candles in the chart.

Now that makes sense. This particular pair EUR/GBP has had a lot of that, "Tweezer Bottoms" and "Tops" Thanks Greg.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Tweezer bottom Two or more candlesticks with matching bottoms. The size or color of the candlestick does not matter. Like the two wicks at support of the candles in the chart.

Originally Posted by abrawn

Hi Greg,

Although I don't post often, a quick message to agree your insight and commentary are greatly appreciated. I have a question about a report which I found on DailyFX. This report had a trend strength value ( from 100 to -100 ) for each currency. I believe this daily report is penned by Jamie. Three questions.... Is this report still being written ? How is this value generated ? and Would it be possible to post a link to that report in this forum ? I find it incredibly difficult to find a report once it's bee taken off the main window. Thanks in advance for your help !
Aaron

Hello Aaron. I am not sure which report you are referring to. I believe he was talking about the Commitment Of Traders Report (COT). CLICK HERE to get to his articles on that. There is a more detailed break down HERE. I personally do not use it as FXCM SSI is more relevant to currencies. However, extreme readings usually indicate that a trend may be reversing. Readings at 0 mean that traders are heavily short a currency pair. While readings of 100 mean that traders are heavily long a currency pair. If everyone has sold, there is no one left to drive prices lower. Traders begin taking profits by closing existing shorts by buying to close. This triggers stops of traders who got short late and a chain reaction of short sellers buying to close their positions is triggered. We have what we call a "Short Squeeze Rally". The reverse is true when a majority of the traders are long, there is no one left to drive prices higher. Prices move sideways and then those who have profit sell their positions in order to close out longs. This causes prices to fall as more supply hit the market. Those who went long late and have little or no profit are stopped out by the falling prices. Buyers have to SELL their positions to close and prices collapse.

Good morning Greg, hope you had a rested weekend.
EUR/GBP This is where I always get stuck. Movement is slow days passed max about 45 pips long so stops cannot get to even mark and The NFP comes out on Friday. It seems as though I am not giving it a long enough time but often the turn comes and bites. I know you cant tell me what to do while I am in the trade. I wonder if others have this problem.

Hi Greg,
The USDCAD seems to have hit its down trend line on the daily. The MACD and S/Stoc still seem to be moving up at a strong pace though. The H4 seems to be well oversold, and the MacD in up trend mode. Do you think this could be a trend change, OR are we ready to bounce further down?

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Good morning Greg, hope you had a rested weekend.
EUR/GBP This is where I always get stuck. Movement is slow days passed max about 45 pips long so stops cannot get to even mark and The NFP comes out on Friday. It seems as though I am not giving it a long enough time but often the turn comes and bites. I know you cant tell me what to do while I am in the trade. I wonder if others have this problem.

Stuck in there myself Robert. Went Short at 0.87789 on 4H on Aug 28 when there was a bearish cross on my moving averages (5/10) and on the Stochs (15/5/5) as well. Wanted to take a few pips out of the limited pullback. Precious little has happened since then (down about 25 pips). Will continue to hold however, since I expect that pair will most likely be pulling back in the 0.8861 area where there is a confluence of the downtrend line, the 200 SMA and the June 5 swing high.

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Good morning Greg, hope you had a rested weekend.
EUR/GBP This is where I always get stuck. Movement is slow days passed max about 45 pips long so stops cannot get to even mark and The NFP comes out on Friday. It seems as though I am not giving it a long enough time but often the turn comes and bites. I know you cant tell me what to do while I am in the trade. I wonder if others have this problem.

Tightening stops or getting really small in the trade may be the course of action going in to NFP. However, The Daily trend is up. Trading against the daily trend is risky and not recommended. To keep the odds in our favor, we should look for entries in the direction of the trend. Nothing wrong with taking a profit and wait for either a retest of the .8774 support level or re-entering at .8838 on a 1-pip breakout above the high on a show of strength.

Krismitt, That's a gutsy move going against the trend, but if you think it can get to the .8861 area before moving back down, a this stage I would be happy to get that far, and we will both profit. My position is long from .87914 on the 26th .8861 is just about my half way mark to limit .89717.

Originally Posted by Krismitt

Stuck in there myself Robert. Went Short at 0.87789 on 4H on Aug 28 when there was a bearish cross on my moving averages (5/10) and on the Stochs (15/5/5) as well. Wanted to take a few pips out of the limited pullback. Precious little has happened since then (down about 25 pips). Will continue to hold however, since I expect that pair will most likely be pulling back in the 0.8861 area where there is a confluence of the downtrend line, the 200 SMA and the June 5 swing high.

You really do have a knack for explaining things Greg, I see what you are saying on this pair lord knows it may not stick for the next time, but your chart and thread here are quite informative. The emotions Greg, they really do stop us from seeing & thinking straight. Thanks again.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Tightening stops or getting really small in the trade may be the course of action going in to NFP. However, The Daily trend is up. Trading against the daily trend is risky and not recommended. To keep the odds in our favor, we should look for entries in the direction of the trend. Nothing wrong with taking a profit and wait for either a retest of the .8774 support level or re-entering at .8838 on a 1-pip breakout above the high on a show of strength.