Thread: Trend of the Day

Originally Posted by Kimaki

I have been looking at EurUsd & AudUsd to go long, and UsdCad & UsdChf to go short. However with the exception of UsdChf the SSI report does not agree with me.

Hey kimaki
thanks for the info!
Do you know where is the top man Greg? He's missing in action!
Kingsley

Stronger than expected U.S. GDP numbers and an extension of the U.S. home buyer tax credits have revived GBP/JPY.

On a daily chart we can clearly see the huge fall consolidation and return of the uptrend.

Waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete and we are starting on a wave 5 that could take us back to the highs of the previous double top.

Wave 5 unfolds into five waves up. I believe we are in wave 1 of a larger wave 5 entering at the end of wave 2 (150.74-150.13) would be the next action or enter at a break above the high of wave 1 (151.77).

Currently, GBP/JPY is retracing after such a huge run up.

Happy Trading.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Stronger than expected U.S. GDP numbers and an extension of the U.S. home buyer tax credits have revived GBP/JPY.

On a daily chart we can clearly see the huge fall consolidation and return of the uptrend.

Waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete and we are starting on a wave 5 that could take us back to the highs of the previous double top.

Wave 5 unfolds into five waves up. I believe we are in wave 1 of a larger wave 5 entering at the end of wave 2 (150.74-150.13) would be the next action or enter at a break above the high of wave 1 (151.77).

Currently, GBP/JPY is retracing after such a huge run up.

Happy Trading.

welcome back greg!

kingsley

Glad to see you. Have a good day.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Stronger than expected U.S. GDP numbers and an extension of the U.S. home buyer tax credits have revived GBP/JPY.

On a daily chart we can clearly see the huge fall consolidation and return of the uptrend.

Waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete and we are starting on a wave 5 that could take us back to the highs of the previous double top.

Wave 5 unfolds into five waves up. I believe we are in wave 1 of a larger wave 5 entering at the end of wave 2 (150.74-150.13) would be the next action or enter at a break above the high of wave 1 (151.77).

Currently, GBP/JPY is retracing after such a huge run up.

Happy Trading.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Stronger than expected U.S. GDP numbers and an extension of the U.S. home buyer tax credits have revived GBP/JPY.

On a daily chart we can clearly see the huge fall consolidation and return of the uptrend.

Waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete and we are starting on a wave 5 that could take us back to the highs of the previous double top.

Wave 5 unfolds into five waves up. I believe we are in wave 1 of a larger wave 5 entering at the end of wave 2 (150.74-150.13) would be the next action or enter at a break above the high of wave 1 (151.77).

Currently, GBP/JPY is retracing after such a huge run up.

Happy Trading.

GBP/JPY broke though the .382, .500, .618, and .786 like a hot knife through butter. SSI had also flipped as well. So as it goes and as for all of my fancy counts.......never mind guys.

I have come back to NFP week which is a trading week I'm not a big fan of because usually the big traders are unwilling to take positions prior to the number. The long wicks on many pairs are indications of low liquidity.

Being a trend trader means that we miss the early starts of trends as they look like counter trend moves unless certain levels are broken. We also exit existing trends late for the same reason. For example, I like the USD/CAD long as it has broken a daily down trend. However, since USD/CAD has not taken out the September 1.1126 highs, we, as trend traders, would sit on our hands and wait. In addition, the pair is below the 200 SMA. I like the EUR/USD short, however, trend is technically up until we break the 1.4480 level which is some 300 pips away. The Euro is still above its 200 SMA. Given that these trends last for hundreds and even thousands of pips, we can afford to miss a few hundred to get into a good position.

Hey Vincy. I did not want to throw a USD/JPY answer in that forum so I'll address it here. I'd like to short this puppy below 89.14 or in the 91.10-92.44 area. In the short term, I think we could go higher as indicated by the long wick low on a daily chart:

Though many are anticipating Dollar strength (including yours truly), we still have to trade what we see not what we think we see. The market punishes those who are too early to the party as well as those who are too late.

The USD/CHF has come very close to the top of its down channel line and stochastics is in the overbought territory. It is also below its 200 SMA. As trend traders, we have to sell rallies. Drop down to a 4-hour chart to pinpoint for a good risk/reward entry. Look to target the 1.0195 area.

Very nice post, thanks for the information. Good tips on timing the market, a few seconds can easily mean the difference between a winning a losing trade.

Hi Greg... the difference between the highest high and the lowest low from yesterday's plunge in USDCHF is around 90 pips... I took a quick look at the stochastic on the daily chart, and it's around 50 level... do you think there is room for a further slide?
Thanks

Originally Posted by annmakervich

Very nice post, thanks for the information. Good tips on timing the market, a few seconds can easily mean the difference between a winning a losing trade.

Thanks for the positive feedback. Trend trading usually allows you a little more entry and exit flexibility and is more forgiving of bad entries as long as they are in the direction of the established trend. On the other hand, counter-trend trading is very unforgiving as price may move twice as far in the direction of the daily trend than with the trend.

Originally Posted by rbishara

Hi Greg... the difference between the highest high and the lowest low from yesterday's plunge in USDCHF is around 90 pips... I took a quick look at the stochastic on the daily chart, and it's around 50 level... do you think there is room for a further slide?
Thanks

Hello Rany,

October 23rd low of 1.0032 to the November 3rd 1.0337 high is roughly a 300 pip range. The 38.2% retracement is at 1.0223, the 61.8% retracement of this up move is at 1.0149, and the 78.6% retracement is at 1.0097.

So I would expect USD/CHF to go down to any area between 1.0149 and 1.0032

After gold reached an all time high inter-day at $1,084/ounce, AUD/JPY started to move higher from the once month lows at 79.45 to 82.41 currently. Aussie Yen should be able to retake the 85.00 handle in the coming days as risk appetite, rising commodity prices and anti-dollar sentiment all are winds at the back of this pair. 85.30 is the October 23rd high. the next level of daily resistance is at the September 2008 high of 90.24 and the August 2008 high of 94.91 which is the measuring objective from the previous channel breakout.

As usual, we use the daily chart to identify the directional bias of a currency pair and then move to a lower time frame, like the 4-hour chart, to pinpoint a good risk/reward entry in the direction of the daily trend.

Happy Trading!

Greg Buddy, Hope all is fine, things have been a little dead around here without you. UsdCad, I got 172 pips out of her when she hit my limit this morning. I am thinking that if she can get past support now at .06250 there should be a good run to .02284, 383 pips away. SSD is at 1.51 which could be better to go short. what do you think, she has the legs or not?

Originally Posted by Kimaki

Greg Buddy, Hope all is fine, things have been a little dead around here without you. UsdCad, I got 172 pips out of her when she hit my limit this morning. I am thinking that if she can get past support now at .06250 there should be a good run to .02284, 383 pips away. SSD is at 1.51 which could be better to go short. what do you think, she has the legs or not?

Hello Kimaki Glad to see you here too. The old low would be a good target considering the dollars weakness which would be the 100% retracement of the upmove. Also look at the 78.6% as a target as well.