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Old 04-09-2009, 09:47 AM
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The BoE rate cut as expected was met with very little reaction as the central bank left rates unchanged, but they did state that they would need up to two more months to complete their initial bond purchase program which should ease fears that they will increase their efforts in the short term which could lead to sterling support.
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Old 04-14-2009, 10:22 AM
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U.S retail sales unexpectedly fell by 1.1% and producer prices also saw an unexpected 1.2% decline in March which has reignited domestic growth and delfation concerns. Although, with the Fed printing money deflation shouldn't be a lingering concern, but it does raise concerns. Tomorrow's CPI figures will give us some more insight into price pressures and if we see that manufacturers are able to get higher prices from consumer then that will raise expectations for corporate profits. However, if they aren't, which might be the case with slumping demand , then the growth outlook will dim as employers won't look to hire until they start to see increasing margins and a pick up in demand. Therefore, we may see the dollar and yen remain supportive as risk appetite wanes.
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Old 04-15-2009, 11:53 AM
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US headline CPI figures were lower than expected with the annual rate falling to -0.4% - the lowest since 1955. However, an uptick in the core reading to 1.8% from 1.7% eased deflation fears and with the Fed pumping money into the system. An unexpected improvement in the Empire manufacturing reading also help calm growth fears, but the 1.5% decline in industrial production showed that there remains considerable weakness in the economy. Therefore, we may continue to see dour earnings reports and with many of the Dow components reporting next week, increasing risk aversion is a possibility which could lend dollar and yen support.
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Old 04-17-2009, 10:53 AM
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Today we saw Swiss retail sales plunge by 3.8% which sunk the Swiss Franc over 150 pips. The move was somewhat surprising as the pair doesn't typically trade on fundamental data. But the declining domestic picture in the country raises the odds that the SNB will intervene to weaken the currency in order to make their exports more competitive.
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Old 04-21-2009, 12:10 PM
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U.K. jobless claims are expected to fall by another 116,000 following last month's 138,000 which was the most since 1971. Additionally,unemployment is expected to reach above 6.7%. The growing concern amongst traders is that the mounting job losses will make will prolong a recovery as it will impact household spending. Therefore, an inline or worse result could weigh on the pound. A break below the 100-Day SMA would warrant a bearish bias with a short trade targeting 1.4110-the 3/30 low.
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Old 04-22-2009, 09:57 AM
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U.K. Chancellor Darling announced at today's budget report that the government will increase its borrowing to 269 billion pounds which was more than initially estimated. He would go on to state that taxes will be increased on people earning more than 150,000 a year to 50 percent and withdrew breaks for pension contributions for that bracket. The new income tax rate is higher than originally planned in November and will come in one year earlier. The pound sunk on the comments and the GBP/USD fell to support at 1.4400 where we see support from the 50-Day SMA. There still remains downside risks to 1.4110 but a small retrace from here is a possibility and may present a risky opportunity to go long.

Canadian retail sale are on tap and are expected to show further weakness in domestic demand, but after two failed attempts at breaking above the 50-Day SMA the USD/CAD has again fallen back below the 100-Day SMA. If the 25 bps rate cut by the BoC didn't sustain "loonie" weakness then we may not see much of a reaction tomorrow unless the results significantly miss expectations.
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Old 04-23-2009, 10:26 AM
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We may see some significant volatility on Friday as German IFO, UK GDP and US Durable Goods orders dot the calendar. UK GDP is expected to show the economy contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter. If we see that growth slowed more than expected it could weigh heavily on the pound especially after the recent budget report. Conversely a shallower contraction could lead to bullish pound sentiment.
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:17 AM
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what does the R in economic calender stand for

Does anyone can explain to me what does the (R+)/(R-) stand for in the economic calender under the Previous column. Thanks
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Old 04-27-2009, 12:05 PM
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It means the release is a revision of an earlier estimate and the number is now higher (R+) or lower (R-).
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Old 04-28-2009, 11:00 AM
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U.S. consumer confidence was a big surprise to the upside and has erased all of the pessimism that was generated by the WSJ article that claimed the government would require Bank of America and Citigroup to raise more funds due to the stress tests. If we see a stronger than expected GDP figure and an optimistic Fed tomorrow, we could see the dollar tumble as U.S. equities continue to rally.
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Old 04-29-2009, 09:40 AM
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The U.S. GDP report brought some good and bad news. Although, the contraction of 6.1% was greater than the 4.7% that was expected, we did see a 2.2% jump in consumption. Additionally, the 9.4% increase in durable goods orders is a complete reversal from last quarter's -22.1%. The biggest drag was the 51.8% drop in gross private investment which we could see sharply reverse going forward with credit so cheap. Equity markets higher at the start shows that traders weren't completely disappointed in the numbers.
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Old 04-30-2009, 11:06 AM
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Today's strong Chicago PMI reading sets up tomorrow's ISM manufacturing report as a significant event risk. If we see the strength in new orders and production that was seen in Chicago translate to the broader economy then we could see a huge surge in risk appetite and further dollar weakness.
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Old 04-30-2009, 01:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Rivera View Post
Today's strong Chicago PMI reading sets up tomorrow's ISM manufacturing report as a significant event risk. If we see the strength in new orders and production that was seen in Chicago translate to the broader economy then we could see a huge surge in risk appetite and further dollar weakness.
Also we need to keep an eagle eye on Consumer Sentiment out tomorrow at 9:55 EST. Especially after the light consumer spending numbers out today.
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:15 PM
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Also we need to keep an eagle eye on Consumer Sentiment out tomorrow at 9:55 EST. Especially after the light consumer spending numbers out today.
Well ISM and consumer sentiment was stronger than expected,. We also saw the ADP private jobs report beat expectations with job losses of 491k versus expectations of -645K. This will raise expectations that we will see a similar improvement in the NFP report. Therefore, if tomorrow's bank stress test results become a non-event as they are shaping up to be with reports just out that Goldman Sachs is judged to have sufficient capital. This comes after reports that Bank of America will need to raise $34 billion, but will be able to do so by converting preferred shares to common. By time the release comes out we may have insight on all of the major names lessening the impact of the release.

The ECB rate decision then could turn out to be the biggest event risk of the day as the central bank is expected to lower its benchmark rate by 25 bps to a record low 1.00%. President Trichet is also expected to announce whether they will embark on quantitative easing.
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Old 05-07-2009, 10:08 AM
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THE ECB announced a 25 bps rate cut as expected but surprised markets by agreeing to start quantitative easing measures by purchasing 60bln in euro denominated bonds.Surprisingly after an initial drop the Euro regained its footing to shot above 1.3450 as the moves led to optimism that they may bring an end to the current recession. However, the ECB left open the door for further easing which may start to weigh on the Euro.
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