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06-01-2009, 10:32 AM
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Well, we are here in the first week of the month which brings the ECB, BoE rate decisions, NFP's, the ISM readings along with a slew of other major releases. Therefore, we could see a lot of volatility which could present some good scalping opportunities. The Rate decisions aren't expected to pack the punch like last month but with the ECB outlining their plans for their quantitative easing efforts it deserves watching. We may see markets quiet ahead of Friday's NFP where if we see another sizable reduction in job losses then we could see equity markets soar and the dollar continue to fall.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-08-2009, 01:06 PM
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Well. last Friday we had an interesting occurrence as there was positive U.S. news and a corresponding dollar reaction as a dramatic slowdown in job layoffs sparked a rally. Throughout the year we have seen the opposite as improvement in the economy was met with rising optimism which led to the unloading of U.S. treasuries which were piled into during the height of the credit crisis. The bullish dollar reaction should you put traders on alert that this relationship may be thinning and therefore should give extra focus to this week's U.S. retail sales report to see how markets react to the news.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-09-2009, 10:21 AM
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RBNZ rate decision ahead which could start to weigh on the "Kiwi" with speculation increasing that we may see a 25 bps cut. Consensus estimates are still calling fro a rate hold as there are enough signs that the global economy is stabilizing to allow the central bank to wait and measure the impact of prior easing. The U.K. NIESR GDP estimate will follow and if we see a improvement in growth, it could add to recent Sterling bullish sentiment.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-11-2009, 10:09 AM
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U.S. retail sales were in line with expectations with a 0.5% increase. Most of the gain was from a rise in gasoline receipts as prices have risen on the back of surging oil costs. Therefore, it isn't necessarily a positive for the economy if consumers have to pay more for their commute. However, we did see a pick up in clothing and a 1.3% increase in building materials which could be a sign that more construction activity is ahead. After an initial bullish dollar reaction we have seen the green back give back its gains as fears are growing that interest rates are on the rise and will limit the pace of a recovery.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-15-2009, 11:49 AM
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I didn't mention the G-8 meeting last week because these gathering have been non-eventful recently even when markets were seeing extreme volatility. However, I didn't expect the Russian Finance Minister to proclaim that the dollar's reserve status was safe, especially after officials from the country have been calling for a replacement to the greenback for the past few weeks. The country isn't even part of the G-8. Nevertheless, it spark a dollar rally as traders started to hedge against some type of aggressive action from the country which could have sparked a similar reaction from its BRIC counterparts. Upcoming German ZEW and UK CPI could reverse the fortunes of the sterling and euro. If inflation in the UK holds steady or shows signs of rising then we could see interest rate expectations rise for the country which could lead to pound support. A rise in business confidence in Europe's leading economy should generate bullish euro sentiment.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-16-2009, 10:21 AM
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Today we saw some interesting data cross the wires headlined by the U.K. CPI figures which showed that the pace of the decline in inflation was slower than expected with it easing to 2.2% from 2.3%, instead of the 2.0% that was expected. This will underline the concerns that were expressed at the G-8 that upside risk for inflation are re-emerging which will develop a need for an exit strategy from the prevailing QE measures. This may lead to a rise in interest rate expectations for the U.K., U.S. and Europe. The BoJ raising their outlook for a second month, a rise in German ZEW and US housing starts have all contributed to a brighter outlook for the global economy. which has weighed on the dollar. Tomorrow's UK employment numbers are expected to show more job losses, but if we start to see the labor market stabilizing as in the U.S. it could add support for the pound. US CPI will garner significant attention on the heightened inflation concerns, but with PPI number falling mare than expected we could see a consumer prices fall more than the -0.9% expected, which could send the dollar lower as it would justify the current Fed policy and allow them to refrain from raising rates until mid 2010 as they predicted.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-17-2009, 11:18 AM
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Employment data in the U.K. follow the same route as the U.S. by showing a slower rate of job losses. May saw the economy give back 39.3K versus the 60K that was expected. However this failed to inspire significant bullish sentiment as we may have sen the pound price in all of the abating pessimism. Therefore, we could see some range bound price action or weakness as markets await the next catalyst. A jump in U.K. retail sales could reignite bullish sentiment, but the 0.3% that is expected will do little but to perpetuate the current outlook of a stabilizing economy with a challenging recovery.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-18-2009, 09:56 AM
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UK retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.6% which sunk the pound overnight, we have sen the sterling regain its footing out the path of lest resistance still appears lower, a break below the 20-Day SMA would validate the bearish bias. Canadian retail sales is the only significant release to end the week and the expected -0.1% could send the "loonie" lower. Although, the broader sentiment on the global economy and oil prices could have a bigger impact on price action. Strong resistance at 1.440-the 38.2% Fibo of 1.2509-1.0781 is staunch resistance and may require a sharp turn in sentiment to overcome.
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06-18-2009, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Rivera
UK retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.6% which sunk the pound overnight, we have sen the sterling regain its footing out the path of lest resistance still appears lower, a break below the 20-Day SMA would validate the bearish bias. Canadian retail sales is the only significant release to end the week and the expected -0.1% could send the "loonie" lower. Although, the broader sentiment on the global economy and oil prices could have a bigger impact on price action. Strong resistance at 1.440-the 38.2% Fibo of 1.2509-1.0781 is staunch resistance and may require a sharp turn in sentiment to overcome.
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Okay Sir I got an Good knowledge about Your Daily News...
So Sir I would Like to Know More about Uk and Jpy Economy.. Coz I am New Trader so I just Study More about Economy Impact...
Sir I have Little Confusion about Economy..
If I am a Trader of Short Term so It should be wast I see The Economy Calender because Every Time There is Some Economy Realize Of Any currency pair.
I know The Some Impact very well as Like Interest Rate and etc..
Just Little Confused What a Short Term Trader Do?
thank you  .
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06-25-2009, 03:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiao
Okay Sir I got an Good knowledge about Your Daily News...
So Sir I would Like to Know More about Uk and Jpy Economy.. Coz I am New Trader so I just Study More about Economy Impact...
Sir I have Little Confusion about Economy..
If I am a Trader of Short Term so It should be wast I see The Economy Calender because Every Time There is Some Economy Realize Of Any currency pair.
I know The Some Impact very well as Like Interest Rate and etc..
Just Little Confused What a Short Term Trader Do? Attachment 31978
thank you Attachment 31980.
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Trading the news can be a bit of an effort in decreasing your account value, price movement proves to be erratic and shows itself when news comes out in a spike... and either keep going in that direction or start trending the other way. Price action doesn't always make economic sense, so its very important to understand technical analysis especially in forex- the aspect of psychology is a gaping hole in fundamental analysis. I recommend you learn to recognize candlestick patterns, Also, look up fibonacci, and learn a thing or two about some basic indicators such as RSI, MACD, Parabolic SAR....etc.
Fundamentally, learn about the economies about the currencies you're trading and if you wanna go deeper the relationships between other countries. Don't just trade the news. I hope this helps! http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
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06-29-2009, 10:15 AM
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A shortened U.S. holiday week may lead to choppy price action as volume thins but there is enough event risk to keep interest high. German Retail sales and U.K. GDP will be precursors to Thursday which brings an ECB rate decision and U.S. Non-farm payrolls. Therefore, we could see market quiet until that day.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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06-30-2009, 07:58 AM
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I see, yea... Improving appetite for risk also played a part in the retreat from the Dollar. A US government data release on Friday showed a spike in personal income for May and a jump in consumer spending, which accounts for over 70 percent of the country's economic activity.
In another report, consumer confidence rose in June to its highest levels since February of 2008, as expectations grew that the worst economic recession since the Great Depression may be ending.
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06-30-2009, 10:28 AM
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A unexpected drop in the U.S. consumer confidence reading has sunk risk appetite and we are seeing the dollar again and the flight to safety. The mounting job losses have weighed on Americans and if we see a greater than expected drop in Non-farm payrolls on Thursday then we could see a extended dollar rally.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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07-01-2009, 11:22 AM
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A ECB rate decision and the U.S. NFP report will provide significant event risk tomorrow and could lead to a great deal of volatility especially for the EUR/USD. We will also see U.S. traders make their bets before they head off for the 4th off July Holiday weekend.
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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
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07-05-2009, 03:53 AM
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Risk Appetite
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sofia.forex
I see, yea... Improving appetite for risk also played a part in the retreat from the Dollar. A US government data release on Friday showed a spike in personal income for May and a jump in consumer spending, which accounts for over 70 percent of the country's economic activity.
In another report, consumer confidence rose in June to its highest levels since February of 2008, as expectations grew that the worst economic recession since the Great Depression may be ending.
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Hi All,
I have been following the NZ $ with a view to more trades, but since studying the details of the NZ economy thoroughly, I am now mystified at the rise of the NZ $ against the US and the other main currencies. Apart from one month's trade surplus, all the figures and stats for NZ are negative. The indebtedness of the nation is massive......the 4 million population owe 160 billion.... one third of the Government Budget is "social welfare", amounting almost to the total of the individual tax take.....The Govt has to borrow an additional 8-9 billion to run this year...The 1st quarter GDP dropped one whole percent (4% annualized!!)...
The country suffers from a rather poor infrastructure, especially involving telecommunications.... The country depends on a very narrow range of products and services for it's survival......And to top it off, it's workforce is rated as one of the most inefficient in the OECD. After learning all that, I have remained cautious and left it, yet the NZ $ stays strong....
Any words of wisdom?
Ciao
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