Trading Economic News - Page 42

Sean Hyman · #**616** (**permalink**) 09-08-2009, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Rivera

The Fed Beige book is due out tomorrow and bears watching as it can have an impact on risk sentiment and interest rate outlooks. There isn't a numerical value associated with it as other economic releases which makes it difficult to trade on. However, watch for analysis after the report a slight change in the lanuguage can be market moving similar to the FOMC minutes. Last month saw several district report signs of stabilization. If we start to see those areas report prospects of growth and the lagging districts begin to stable then we could see a continuation of prevailing risk appetite.

Thanks for the heads up, John. Good to keep in mind. Thanks.

Sean Hyman · #**617** (**permalink**) 09-09-2009, 11:09 AM

New Zealand interest rates come out at 5pm EST today. See what their central bank has to say about going forward.

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/blogs/sean-hyman/

Sean Hyman · #**618** (**permalink**) 09-09-2009, 02:08 PM

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The following is the summary
text of the Federal Reserve Board’s Summary of Commentary.

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicate that
economic activity continued to stabilize in July and August.
Relative to the last report, Dallas indicated that economic
activity had firmed, while Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia,
Richmond, and San Francisco mentioned signs of improvement.
Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and New York
generally described economic activity as stable or showing
signs of stabilization; St. Louis remarked that the pace of
decline appeared to be moderating. Most Districts noted that
the outlook for economic activity among their business
contacts remained cautiously positive.

The majority of Districts reported flat retail sales.
Richmond, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Boston remarked
that retailers continued to carefully manage inventories,
keeping them in line with low sales levels. A majority of
Districts confirmed that the “cash-for-clunkers” program
boosted traffic and sales. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and
Minneapolis also noted increases or planned increases in
automobile-related production. Most regions reported some
improvement in residential real estate markets. Downward
pressure on home prices continued in most Districts, although
Dallas and New York noted that local prices were firming.

Reports on commercial real estate suggest that the demand for
space remained weak and that nonresidential construction-
related activity continued to decline. San Francisco,
Philadelphia, and St. Louis noted that the demand for
nonfinancial services remained soft, although the pace of the
decline was described as slowing in the latter two Districts.
Loan demand was described as weak and many Districts reported
that credit standards remained tight. Most Districts reported
improvements in manufacturing production. For instance,
Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago
reported moderate increases in new orders. Labor market
conditions remained weak across all Districts. However,
staffing firms in Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond, Cleveland,
Philadelphia, Boston, New York, and Chicago did report a
slight pickup in the demand for temporary workers.

Wage pressures remained minimal across all Districts.
Consumer prices were described as being steady in most
Districts, although Kansas City and San Francisco noted some
downward pressure on retail prices.

Consumer Spending and Tourism

Consumer spending remained soft in most Districts. The
majority of Districts reported that retail activity was flat.
Boston, Philadelphia, and Kansas City noted improvement in
sales, but attributed the increase primarily to back-to-school
purchases. Philadelphia, Chicago, Cleveland, and San
Francisco observed that shoppers remained focused on
essentials and continued to refrain from purchasing
discretionary and big-ticket items. Kansas City and San
Francisco noted weak restaurant sales. Richmond, Philadelphia,
Chicago, Atlanta, and Boston remarked that retailer
inventories were being closely monitored and were keeping them
in line with low sales levels.

The majority of Districts reported that the cash-for-clunkers
program helped boost traffic and sales, although Cleveland and
Kansas City also remarked that used car sales were adversely
affected by the program. The sustainability of the higher
recent pace of new vehicle sales was questioned by industry
contacts in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San
Francisco Districts.

Tourism activity varied. Kansas City, Minneapolis, and
Richmond observed solid visitor numbers at local vacation
destinations, whereas Atlanta and New York noted sluggish
activity and aggressive hotel discounting. San Francisco
reported that activity in California and Nevada was weak, but
visitors to Hawaii had increased.

Real Estate and Construction

Residential real estate markets remained weak, but signs of
improvement continued to be noted. Chicago, Richmond, Boston,
and San Francisco observed an uptick in sales over the last
six weeks, while sales in the Philadelphia District were
described as steady. St. Louis commented that residential home
sales had not improved. Most Districts reported that sales
remained below the levels of a year earlier. However, Atlanta,
New York, Cleveland, and Minneapolis documented some year-
over-year gains in select markets. Most Districts noted that
demand remained stronger at the low-end of the housing market.
Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond, and New York
indicated that the first-time home buyer tax incentive was
spurring sales. However, Philadelphia did note an upturn in
sales at the high-end of the market. Reports on house prices
generally indicated ongoing downward pressures, although
Dallas and New York noted some increases. Construction
remained at low levels overall, although Chicago and Dallas
reported a small increase in activity.

Reports on commercial real estate markets indicated that
demand for space remained weak and that construction continued
to decline in all Districts. Atlanta, Philadelphia, Richmond,
and San Francisco reported that vacancy rates increased, while
rates held steady in the Boston and Kansas City Districts and
were mixed in New York. Boston, Dallas, Kansas City,
Philadelphia, and Richmond commented that the demand for space
remained weak. Commercial rents declined according to Boston,
Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond. Rent
concessions were reported in the Richmond and San Francisco
markets, and Richmond noted that some landlords had postponed
property improvements in an effort to conserve cash.
Construction remained at very low levels, with modest
improvements noted in public construction in the Chicago,
Cleveland, and Minneapolis Districts.

Nonfinancial Services

Reports on the demand for nonfinancial services were mixed.
San Francisco, Philadelphia, and St. Louis noted that the
demand for service sector business remained soft, although the
pace of decline was described as having slowed in the latter
two Districts. The demand for legal services remained
relatively flat at low levels according to Dallas and
Minneapolis. Kansas City and Richmond cited increasing demand
for technology-related services. Healthcare services in
Minneapolis also experienced an uptick in demand. Demand for
transportation services were mixed, with some Districts noting
stabilization at weak levels. Reports indicated that freight
volume declines were moderating in Cleveland, while Dallas and
Atlanta reported a modest pickup in rail shipments.

Banking and Financial Services

Most Districts reported that loan demand was weak and that
credit standards remained tight. New York, Philadelphia,
Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City, St. Louis, and San Francisco
observed further weakening in loan demand across most
categories. Dallas noted scattered reports of improvements in
loan demand. Contacts in Cleveland, Chicago, and Dallas noted
an increase in demand for auto loans. Credit standards ranged
from unchanged to tighter in most Districts. However, Chicago
reported that credit conditions and availability had improved.
Mortgage activity declined modestly according to the
Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts, while
Richmond reported increases attributed to improved demand for
starter homes. Dallas noted an uptick in refinancing activity.
Commercial and industrial lending declined in the Philadelphia
and Kansas City regions, and was steady according to Richmond.
The lack of available credit was cited as an issue for both
residential and commercial contractors in Cleveland, and for
commercial real estate borrowers in Atlanta. San Francisco
reported an increase in venture capital investment.
Further deterioration in credit quality was noted by
Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco, whereas
Cleveland observed some improvement in credit quality. Chicago
also cited improvements in credit quality, apart from home
equity and commercial real estate. Dallas and Chicago noted
increases in consumer bankruptcies, while rising delinquency
rates were reported by New York and Cleveland.

Manufacturing

Most Districts reported modest improvements in the
manufacturing sector. Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta,
Cleveland, and Chicago all reported slight-to-moderate
increases in new orders. San Francisco indicated that new
orders increased for manufacturers of semiconductors and other
IT products, while orders declined for metal fabricators and
petroleum refineries. Dallas noted that orders held steady,
while St. Louis reported that manufacturing output continued
to decline, but at a slower pace. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago,
and Minneapolis reported increases or planned increases in
automobile and automobile-related production. Several
Districts also noted increased production in the
pharmaceutical industry.

The near-term outlook among manufacturers varied, but the
majority of reports indicated that manufacturers were
cautiously optimistic. Boston, New York, and Philadelphia
reported that their contacts expect modest growth later this
year or early 2010. Boston noted that while its contacts
generally expect modest growth, several cost control measures
would remain in place. Dallas reported increased uncertainty
among construction-related manufacturers, while Cleveland
noted that half of their manufacturing contacts expected weak
demand into 2010.

Employment, Wages, and Prices

Labor market conditions remained weak across all Districts,
but several also noted an uptick in temporary hiring and a
decline in the pace of layoffs. Richmond reported that most
service-providing firms continued to cut employees, while
Minneapolis and New York noted additional layoffs in the
manufacturing sector. Cleveland reported modest job declines
in the banking, commercial construction, and coal mining
sectors. Further job cuts are expected in auto manufacturing
according to St. Louis, and Dallas indicated further staff
reductions are anticipated in the airline, energy, and
residential construction sectors. Staffing firms in a majority
of Districts reported a modest increase in the demand for
temporary workers, although industry contacts in Boston also
questioned whether these gains will persist. New York cited a
modest pickup in temporary hiring for the legal and financial
industries. Chicago noted an uptick in demand for workers in
the healthcare and information technology industries. St.
Louis and Minneapolis reported that federal stimulus funds
have had a positive impact on construction and local
government jobs.

Wage pressures remained low across all Districts. Several
Districts noted businesses and local governments imposing wage
freezes or even reducing employee compensation in some
instances. Boston noted that several manufacturers who have
cut wage rates do not expect to restore pay levels until next
year. Kansas City, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis, San
Francisco, Dallas, and Richmond noted an increase in the cost
of some raw materials, including fuel, metals, and steel.
Chicago and Dallas mentioned that excess supply was putting
substantial downward pressure on natural gas prices. Retail
prices were described as generally steady in most Districts,
although Kansas City and San Francisco noted continued
discounting and downward pressure on consumer prices.

Agriculture and Natural Resources

Reports on agricultural activity were mixed. Weather
conditions were described as being favorable in St. Louis,
Kansas City, and Atlanta. However, cold weather, crop
diseases, and drought were limiting production of corn, cotton,
and soybeans in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts.
Drought and weak market conditions were significantly
affecting livestock industries according to Kansas City and
Dallas. Dallas reported that some ranchers had liquidated
portions of their cattle herds, while hog producers in the
Kansas City District were said to be struggling as a result of
lower pork prices.

Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, and San Francisco noted
increased oil and gas inventories as a result of reduced
consumption. Contacts in the natural gas industry noted that
subdued demand continued to suppress prices and has lead to
cutbacks in extraction activity. Cleveland indicated that
weak demand for electricity prompted coal producers to scale
back production and capital investment. Kansas City noted
that although coal production in Wyoming had risen, it
remained below year-ago levels. Dallas and Atlanta remarked
that oil and gas drilling activity continued to decline in the
Gulf of Mexico, whereas Kansas City and Dallas reported that
the number of rigs operating on land had increased.

John Rivera · #**619** (**permalink**) 09-10-2009, 10:18 AM

We saw the BoE and BoC leave their benchmark rates unchanged today at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively. The BoE also refrained from adding to their asset purchase program which was seen as a possibility considering that lending standards have remained tight. The lack of action could be seen as a bullish sign and could lend sterling support. Meanwhile, the BoC stated that growth in 2009 could exceed expectations but still saw inflation risks to the downside which could leave the central bank on hold for sometime. Additionally, they cited the Canadian dollar strength as a negative for future growth which could fuel intervention expectations and become a weighing factor for the "loonie".

Sean Hyman · #**620** (**permalink**) 09-10-2009, 12:19 PM

Yesterday, New Zealand kept their rates unchanged at 2.50%.

Today, The BOE kept the rates in the U.K unchanged at 0.50% but they are NOT increasing the quantitative easing more than they've stated last. The market took this as a bullish sign immediately afterwards.

Today, The BOC kept the Canadian rates at a paltry 0.25% as expected.

So they all kept rates unchanged and as expected.

John Rivera · #**621** (**permalink**) 09-11-2009, 10:49 AM

University of Michigan consumer confidence survey rose to 70.2 which brought it back to its June level but the outlook from Americans still remains subdued and until we see readings back above 80, expect consumers to continue to retrench.

John Rivera · #**622** (**permalink**) 09-15-2009, 12:58 PM

A surge in retail sales was encouraging for the U.S. economy as demand grew by 2.7% versus expectations of 1.9%. The majority of the gain was from Autos sales as the cash for clunkers program drove buyers to sales lots. However, there were considerable rises in apparel and electronic sales which could be a sign that Americans are looking to start spending again. Tomorrow, CPI figures will cross the wires and could surprise to the upside considering the rise in producer prices that we saw today. Expectations are for a 0.3% increase on the month but a larger increase could start to raise interest rate expectations despite the Fed predicting a prolonged period of low rates. A sharp rise in inflation would make it prohibitive for them to maintain rates at current levels for too long.

Sean Hyman · #**623** (**permalink**) 09-16-2009, 11:27 AM

So far, pairing the inflationary currencies against the deflationary currencies has been a winner.

John Rivera · #**624** (**permalink**) 09-16-2009, 12:55 PM

BoJ rate decision, U.K. retail sales and an SNB rate decision may lead to a day of volatility tomorrow. Consumer consumption has been a concern globally and with lending standards remaining tight for Britons a drop in demand could raise a red flag for the BoE which has left the door open for additional measures which could lead to bearish sterling sentiment. Although, we don't expect the BoJ or SNB to make changes to their interest rate policy, we do expect that they will express their displeasure for their currency's recent appreciation. The potential verbal intervention may led to weakness in the traditional funding currencies.

Sean Hyman · #**625** (**permalink**) 09-17-2009, 10:09 AM

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/blogs...0-seconds.html

Theme of the Day so far: Yen weakness...GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY, etc. among the biggest % gainers on the day, however USD/ZAR tops the list.

Dollar experiencing a bounce vs. commodity currencies: Biggest % losers NZD/USD, AUD/USD

Oil $72 Lessening stock piles supporting crude prices.

Gold $1,015 China is now encouraging its residents to buy gold.

Natural Gas recently has gone from $2.50 to $3.78. May be bottoming soon.

China's Pig Farmers stockpiling Copper: China?s Pig Farmers Amass Copper, Nickel, Sucden Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

G-20 to meet in about a week: Obama, G-20 Will Pledge to Keep Stimulus, Froman Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

SNB holds rates steady at 0.25%, pledges to counter strong franc: SNB Holds Key Rate Near Zero, to Counter Franc Gains (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Asia and Europe were up overnight. S&P Futures flat so far this morning.

The VIX (Volatility Index) dropped to its lowest level since 2008: VIX Index Falls to Lowest Level Since September 2008, Rebounds - Bloomberg.com

Japan holds interest rates unchanged at 0.10%

GBP Retail Sales 0% vs. +0.2% expected.

U.S. Unemployment Claims 545k vs. 554k expected and 557k last time.

U.S. Building Permits 0.60M in line with expectations but better than last time's 0.59M.

Sean Hyman · #**626** (**permalink**) 09-18-2009, 11:52 AM

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/blogs...continues.html

Theme of the Day so far: GBP weakness...GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY leading the % losers (respectively). Almost nothing is weaker than GBP..not the dollar, yen, swissie, etc.

Pockets of dollar strength: USD/ZAR, USD/CAD, USD/TRY are at the top of the % gainers today.

Head & Shoulders pattern on GBP/USD has that pair still falling. Lots of U.K. banking concerns resurfacing out there again.

Bill Clinton video basically admits that the U.S. won't dominate the world any longer: Bill Clinton Cites Discipline, Growth to Cut Deficit: Video - Bloomberg.com

Oil 72.18 has a bullish ascending triangle pattern on its daily chart. Could target $90+ a barrel if it breaks out to the upside.

Gold 1,015
Nat Gas 3.50

Gap up higher in CRB Index, not good for the dollar overall!

Turkish lira news: Turkey got its credit rating outlook lifted from stable to positive by Moody's. Turkey Rating Outlook Raised to Positive by Moody?s (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Just yesterday, the new Japanese Finance Minister said he wasn't opposed to a strong yen. Today, he back-tracks... Japan?s Fujii Says Yen Should Reflect Fundamentals (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

G-20 Meeting likely to be more about banker's bonuses than anything: EU Demands Bonus Curbs Without Agreeing on Details (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Stocks finished yesterday with a doji on many of the indices and the lighter and lighter volume continues. This means a huge correction in stocks could be coming soon. (Volume should expand in the direction of the trend for a healthy sustainable trend). So, it could really affect the high yielding currencies, especially the carry trades when this happens. Stocks are also very stretched from their 200 day SMAs as well.

Sean Hyman · #**627** (**permalink**) 09-21-2009, 11:08 AM

Theme of the day so far: Dollar strength. USD/ZAR, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/TRY, USD/CHF are the biggest % gainers on the day so far. Most of http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/blogs...nce-today.html

Theme of the day so far: Dollar strength. USD/ZAR, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/TRY, USD/CHF are the biggest % gainers on the day so far. Most of those are up more than 1% on the day already too!

NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD are the biggest % losers too.

Sun - Tues. Japan is on a holiday.

G-20 meeting on Thurs. & Friday

FOMC Interest Rate Statement on Wednesday. Rates expected to be unchanged.

Oil 69.27 down on USD strength options in oil hitting highs: Top Financial News

Gold $998 down on USD strength

Dollar advance could weigh down on stocks today which could also hold back some carry trades too.

Dell buying Perot Systems

South African rand...rates may be held steady at 7% tomorrow. Top Financial News

Sean Hyman

John Rivera · #**628** (**permalink**) 09-21-2009, 02:42 PM

BoE minutes and the FOMC rate decision may equal a day of volatility for GBP/USD. The BoE has been extremely dovish compared to its counterparts as it not only has taken additional measures but hinted at more while other policy makers have been in a holding pattern for months. We may start to see the Fed start to lay the ground work fir suture tightening and the exit strategy for current liquidity providing efforts. However, we don't expect the remarks to be overly hawkish, they could be enough to weaken the dollar's correlation to risk.

Sean Hyman · #**629** (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 01:43 PM

Theme of the day again: NZD strength. NZD/JPY and NZD/USD two of the biggest % gainers on the day. EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD the biggest losers on the day, all in NZD strength.

General euro weakness abounds across the board.

NZD GDP expands the first time since the March 08 quarter.

BOE voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold.

Fed announces interest rates today @ 2:15pm EST. No change expected BUT it's what they say in their statement that could make a difference. Supposedly, they've been talking with bond dealers about taking some of the stimulus back out of the economy. We'll see if there's any mention of this today.

Tomorrow: German IFO, U.S. Unemployment Claims, U.S. Existing Home Sales, G-20 meeting starts.

NZD going up on milk? Recovering Dairy prices could help New Zealand. Fonterra says that global dairy prices may make a slow, gradual recovery. Since they are one of NZD's biggest companies & exporters of one of their biggest products...that's a good sign for NZD.

Sean Hyman · #**630** (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 02:22 PM

Fed's comments