Trading Economic News - Page 46 - DailyFX Forex Forum

mildredthecat · #**676** (**permalink**) 10-23-2009, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GZ117

I'm looking for some insight into the price action in the gbp/usd prior to the UK Q3 GDP release - the spike up, followed by the very big spike down, prior to the news release seems to beg the question. Is this kind of action typical?

Over time one comes to learn where Fx is concerned that anything is typical

Sean Hyman · #**677** (**permalink**) 10-26-2009, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mildredthecat

Over time one comes to learn where Fx is concerned that anything is typical

David, good to have you posting within the Economics section.

Sean Hyman · #**678** (**permalink**) 10-27-2009, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mildredthecat

Over time one comes to learn where Fx is concerned that anything is typical

We've got NZD interest rates...one more speech from Canada's Carney..and then CAD GDP on Friday.

So there's a few things to continue to watch out for.

John Rivera · #**679** (**permalink**) 10-27-2009, 01:03 PM

We are seeing the GBP/USD hold up despite broader greenback strength. Support may be coming from the CBI retail report as the August figures more than doubled forecasts of 3 with a reading of 8 and the prediction for September was 19 which is a monumental leap and a sign that domestic growth may have surged to end the third quarter. The rise in consumption may offset some of the dour sentiment generated by the disappointing 3Q GDP figures. If we see a an improvement in Thursday credit report, especially on the consumer side then the chances of further quantitative easing from the BoE could decline which should provide sterling support.

Sean Hyman · #**680** (**permalink**) 10-28-2009, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Rivera

We are seeing the GBP/USD hold up despite broader greenback strength. Support may be coming from the CBI retail report as the August figures more than doubled forecasts of 3 with a reading of 8 and the prediction for September was 19 which is a monumental leap and a sign that domestic growth may have surged to end the third quarter. The rise in consumption may offset some of the dour sentiment generated by the disappointing 3Q GDP figures. If we see a an improvement in Thursday credit report, especially on the consumer side then the chances of further quantitative easing from the BoE could decline which should provide sterling support.

John, just to add to that....EUR/GBP is breaking down on EUR/USD weakness...so GBP is starting to hold up relatively well when compared to the euro.

Sean Hyman · #**681** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

John, just to add to that....EUR/GBP is breaking down on EUR/USD weakness...so GBP is starting to hold up relatively well when compared to the euro.

Update on the EUR/GBP chart from yesterday that John pointed out.

The pair closed below the neck line and has traded back up to it. Now we're preparing for the huge sell off to come.

Sean Hyman · #**682** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 02:04 PM

Just a "heads up". I'll be out on vacation from Nov. 2nd to 9th. So I hope you guys will step up to the plate during this time and keep this awesome thing going.

I will have several instructors popping in and out throughout each day and they will be making a few posts here and there. However, their primary job is still to "man the courses".

One other note....for those new to the forums...if you'd like to see how to register and post to the forum...check this shor video out: DailyFX Forum Registration Video: YouTube - DailyFX Forum Registration Video

I'll be back on the forums on Nov. 10th.

Sean Hyman · #**683** (**permalink**) 10-30-2009, 11:39 AM

Consumer Confidence is waning as people worry about the huge job losses that still abound: U.S. Michigan Sentiment Index Fell to 70.6 This Month (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

John Rivera · #**684** (**permalink**) 11-02-2009, 01:47 PM

We saw some interesting data today from the U.S. with ISM manufacturing, existing home sales and construction spending all beating expectations. The employment component for the ISM report showed an improvement to 53.1 from 46.2 which may bode well for this Friday's Non-farm payroll. After an initial surge in equity markets on the back of the data, we have seen risk appetite ease which may be a sign that traders may wait for all the event risk this week to play out before making any aggressive bets. The FOMC, BoE and ECB will all meet to determine future monetary policy and with the signs of the recovery growing each successive meeting grows in importance.

John Rivera · #**685** (**permalink**) 11-03-2009, 02:59 PM

The next three days presents a slew of significant event risk with the FOMC, BoE, ECB rate decisions, US non-farm payrolls, ISM non-manufacturing, plus Australian retail sales, New Zealand employment data and BoJ minutes. Therefore, watch out for volatility and the beginning of new trends. We may be a few months away from seeing the major economies start to diverge but this week may give some insight on which economies will be the leaders and the laggards. The RBA has already hike rates twice and it is only a matter of time before others start to follow which could bring an end to the level of correlation that we have seen across the global economy.

John Rivera · #**686** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 01:24 PM

Non-farm payrolls tomorrow and based on the reaction today to the improvement in initial jobless claims the street is looking for a strong number. Anything under less than 150,000 jobs lost should support prevailing risk appetite which could be dollar bearish. However, we cold see dollar support if the unemployment rate falls as it could step up the timetable for rate hikes from the Fed, despite their recent forecast to keep them low for an extended period.

ala · #**687** (**permalink**) 11-07-2009, 03:27 AM

Hello,

I see nobody talking about the EUR/CHF. It looks like the pair has been limited to a 400-pip range since the big SNB intervention last March, and has been pushed down for more than a month since the last intervention forming a nice descending triangle, though not in a down trend, but in a long-lasting down mood.

It feels like the paid is committed in fighting for a break-down against a supper solid support line maintained by the SNB. Do you guy think the SNB is still up for the fight?

Hope you are enjoying your weekend,

Ala

John Rivera · #**688** (**permalink**) 11-09-2009, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ala

Hello,

I see nobody talking about the EUR/CHF. It looks like the pair has been limited to a 400-pip range since the big SNB intervention last March, and has been pushed down for more than a month since the last intervention forming a nice descending triangle, though not in a down trend, but in a long-lasting down mood.

It feels like the paid is committed in fighting for a break-down against a supper solid support line maintained by the SNB. Do you guy think the SNB is still up for the fight?

Hope you are enjoying your weekend,

Ala

There is still some fight in the SNB, although I think the chances of physical intervention are slim. I expect we will continuing hearing strong talk from the central bank which could keep the pair confined to its current range.

John Rivera · #**689** (**permalink**) 11-10-2009, 02:10 PM

UK employment figures and the BoE quarterly inflation report present event risk for the pound tomorrow. Jobless claims are expected to have risen by 20,000 in October with the claimant count rate rising to 5.1% from 5.0%. Additionally wages are expected to have fallen which will dim the outlook for domestic growth. The inflation report may have the most market moving potential as it will have a direct impact on whether the central bank can add further to its asset purchase program. If consumer prices remain subdued then the MPC will have the green light to continue quantitative easing efforts. Both reports have bearish potential for Sterling if they are in lien with expectations.

straty01 · #**690** (**permalink**) 11-11-2009, 02:34 AM

The U.K is in worse shape than the U.S in my humble opinion but the forex market is so one sided I'm sure banana peels would be accepted over US dollars at the moment. The GDP figures yesterday were terrible and yet sterling still rising, fundamentals are taking a back seat at the moment.

I live in Australia and bought gold at around $800US 10 months ago, the price is now $1100 and yet I have lost money due to the higher AUD. It is strange that the people living in the countries that produce the resources are actually LOSING MONEY due to the so called 'world reserve currency'.

The sooner we de-couple from the US the better we will all be. Bernanke is an absolute idiot as far as I am concerned.

Bubble economics yet again.