Trading Economic News - Page 47

Sean Hyman · #**691** (**permalink**) 11-11-2009, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by straty01

The U.K is in worse shape than the U.S in my humble opinion but the forex market is so one sided I'm sure banana peels would be accepted over US dollars at the moment. The GDP figures yesterday were terrible and yet sterling still rising, fundamentals are taking a back seat at the moment.

I live in Australia and bought gold at around $800US 10 months ago, the price is now $1100 and yet I have lost money due to the higher AUD. It is strange that the people living in the countries that produce the resources are actually LOSING MONEY due to the so called 'world reserve currency'.

The sooner we de-couple from the US the better we will all be. Bernanke is an absolute idiot as far as I am concerned.

Bubble economics yet again.

Yeah, AUD/USD has really soared with its superior fundamentals vs. the buck...and the rise of its natural resources like gold.

Good to see you posting here.

straty01 · #**692** (**permalink**) 11-11-2009, 05:09 PM

Always interesting to look at.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2187rank.html

A few of the Euro nations could eventually drag the eurodollar down

Sean Hyman · #**693** (**permalink**) 11-12-2009, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by straty01

Always interesting to look at.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2187rank.html

A few of the Euro nations could eventually drag the eurodollar down

Yeah, currenct account surpluses seem to help the postive sentiment more than the current account deficits hurt the sentiment.

That's been my experience with those.

Sean Hyman · #**694** (**permalink**) 11-12-2009, 03:27 PM

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DailyFX Forum Registration Video: YouTube - DailyFX Forum Registration Video

Sean Hyman · #**695** (**permalink**) 11-13-2009, 01:22 PM

The government is just looking for reasons to be able to get a stronger hold on banks: Fed Should Oversee Too-Big-to-Fail Financial Firms, Wolin Says - Bloomberg.com

They're seizing this opportunity in "tough times" so that they don't look like the bad guys.

If they did it in "good times", they'd look too much like socialists, etc.

straty01 · #**696** (**permalink**) 11-16-2009, 12:12 AM

Agreed Sean, it's always easier to 'bash the banks' and deflect negativity away from the govt, I will watch this with interest, especially if credit remains tight, those dollars may become scarce if funding becomes a problem.

Sean Hyman · #**697** (**permalink**) 11-16-2009, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by straty01

Agreed Sean, it's always easier to 'bash the banks' and deflect negativity away from the govt, I will watch this with interest, especially if credit remains tight, those dollars may become scarce if funding becomes a problem.

Yeah, especially if stocks start to cave...and credit remains tight...the dollar rallies.

John Rivera · #**698** (**permalink**) 11-16-2009, 03:25 PM

Fed chairman Bernanke speaking today sparked some initial dollar support but the greenback failed to hold onto the gains as the central bank head didn't offer up much after he stated "We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability. Our commitment to our dual objectives, together with the underlying strengths of the U.S. economy, will help ensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial stability."

ala · #**699** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 04:06 AM

Welcome back, Sean! Hope you enjoyed the holiday!

Do you still hold onto your EUR/GBP outlook? I’ve got a similar analysis, but not based on the H&S.

Ala

ala · #**700** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 04:34 AM

Hi,

I'm trying to figure out to where GBP/JPY is going. The fundamental outlook looks foggy, and the technical picture may hide a big surprise.

What do you guys think?

Have profitable trading,

Ala

Sean Hyman · #**701** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ala

Welcome back, Sean! Hope you enjoyed the holiday!

Do you still hold onto your EUR/GBP outlook? I’ve got a similar analysis, but not based on the H&S.

Ala

Thanks. Glad to be back. Vacation was wonderful. Enjoyed it greatly.

I think it could fall another 100 pips very easily before running into the major uptrend line. Then we'll have to see if it holds or breaks.

Sean Hyman · #**702** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ala

Hi,

I'm trying to figure out to where GBP/JPY is going. The fundamental outlook looks foggy, and the technical picture may hide a big surprise.

What do you guys think?

Have profitable trading,

Ala

GBP/JPY breakout is very, very near as the triangle/pennant shows. Statistically, it will likely break out to the upside...because it was in an up move before the triangle occured. Also, the BOE's Sentance said today that the UK is returning to growth and could stoke inflation.

So I'm looking for an upside breakout..but if I'm wrong...willing to short as well.

brad_1199 · #**703** (**permalink**) 11-17-2009, 05:09 PM

The beast has been holding above a major support line at 148.15 confirming support ... I posted in here recently showing this and just how high price may rally from this level if support holds, and it's no joke, there's some big pips on the line here for bulls.. Keep your eyes on 148.15.. I think price may drag sideways for quite a while along that level before we see it shoot higher...

Sean I hope you end up doing well with your long position in this pair

But I think you might need more patience than you think...

GBPJPY Daily Chart --->

Sean Hyman · #**704** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

GBP/JPY breakout is very, very near as the triangle/pennant shows. Statistically, it will likely break out to the upside...because it was in an up move before the triangle occured. Also, the BOE's Sentance said today that the UK is returning to growth and could stoke inflation.

So I'm looking for an upside breakout..but if I'm wrong...willing to short as well.

Update...triangle still hasn't broken...getting closer to the breakout point.

John Rivera · #**705** (**permalink**) 11-18-2009, 02:15 PM

Will tomorrow's UK retail sales be the catalyst for the GBPJPY breakout that everyone is expecting early forecasts are for a rise to 2.9% from a year ago with a minimal 0.5% gain during October. However, the consumer spending report isn't the only release at that time with mortgage approvals and public sector net borrowing also on tap. A rise in lending combined with strong consumption may increase optimism for future growth. A sharp rise in government debt could spark credit rating fears and lead sterling lower giving us a breakout to the downside. We recently saw Fitch ratings warn that the U.K.s AAA status was in jeopardy which is a lingering concern.