|
|
 |
|
11-13-2007, 09:00 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 163
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
The other count is a bearish triangle where price would drop below 100 and then test 81 to complete a long term downtrend.
|
In this case, the triangle would be part of a wave 4 in a downtrend ?
|
11-13-2007, 09:36 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,341
|
|
|
Exactly. Here is the chart (monthly)
|
11-13-2007, 10:03 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 105
|
|
|
Jamie I think your CAD count makes sense. It also fits in many other dollar pairs (though they're not at the exact same point) such as EUR and AUD.
I prefer putting the "I or A" bottom in June '06 because the June 06-Feb 07 correction is the longest one timewise, so labeling it as the major correction of the whole downtrend is what fits best with what I see.
I might add that any time we label a trend I-II-III at the largest degree, imo it's almost obligatory (and implicit I guess) to consider the A-B-C alternate.
p.s.
Serhito I have to admit I hadn't noticed the alternate labeling on your chart. So obviously I like your alternate, but not your main count because it seems that within your wave C, wave 3 is the shortest and that wouldn't be a correct count. And btw I am Québecois.
Spin
|
11-13-2007, 10:40 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 163
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by spin the o
within your wave C, wave 3 is the shortest and that wouldn't be a correct count. And btw I am Québecois.
Spin
|
Spin,
You are right. That is actually the reason why i went to the ABC alternative. I could not fit that last "C wave" in a whole impulsive move. Correct me if i am wrong, but in a wave C, you do not have to follow the impulsive rules "wave 3 should not be the shortest". I am still in the learning process, so i could have missed something there. Thanks for pointing it out.
On devrait bientot pouvoir commencer un forum en francais. :0
|
11-13-2007, 12:05 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,488
|
|
|
Usd Yen
Looking like End of a wave 5 .........
|
11-13-2007, 01:55 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 105
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by serhito
Spin,
You are right. That is actually the reason why i went to the ABC alternative. I could not fit that last "C wave" in a whole impulsive move. Correct me if i am wrong, but in a wave C, you do not have to follow the impulsive rules "wave 3 should not be the shortest". I am still in the learning process, so i could have missed something there. Thanks for pointing it out.
On devrait bientot pouvoir commencer un forum en francais. :0
|
C waves are impulses and are supposed to follow the rules of impulses, especially in a zig-zag, but also in flats. This is the way it was designed by Elliott, and is the way Prechter wrote it also.
Some people have adapted the method to their beliefs and have invented formations to fit market action that they had a hard time labeling I guess, but they aren't following the original rules.
|
11-13-2007, 03:51 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 163
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by serhito
It is basic, but i cannot find a confirmation. C waves do not have to follow the rules of an impulse wave. (for example, wave 4 retracing below 1). Correct ?
|
Spin,
Thanks for clarifying the wave C issue. I had asked the question a while back, but got no answer.
|
11-13-2007, 04:04 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,488
|
|
|
Usd/Cad
Here is the update from Yesterday's post ...............
--------------------------------------------------------
|
11-13-2007, 06:15 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 675
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
The drop from 1.4002 is most likely a very large wave C within an A-B-C decline from the 1.60 area. A drop below .9055 would complete wave iii of 3 of C (which fits with how vicious this decline has been). Then we should see a larger correction back to the 1.0000 area.
|
Interesting count on the usd/can do you have a chart that goes back 30 some years?
At what level would invalidate the ABC theory from 1.60 to now? Fundamentally I would put the usd/can able to reach 0.57 - 5-6 years out from now. Maybe sooner.
But what i'm getting at is where did the impulse start? Surely we have breached wave 1......
|
11-13-2007, 06:24 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,592
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by serhito
italm,
Tu es quebecois ?
|
Hey Serhito,
Appologise for the delay in response. I was gone for the day. Oui, je suis quebecois. Vive le Quebec!..lol..Ya right!
|
11-13-2007, 06:52 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 105
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Interesting count on the usd/can do you have a chart that goes back 30 some years?
At what level would invalidate the ABC theory from 1.60 to now? Fundamentally I would put the usd/can able to reach 0.57 - 5-6 years out from now. Maybe sooner.
But what i'm getting at is where did the impulse start? Surely we have breached wave 1......
|
Interesting topic speculator. I think there are 2 ways to look at the question:
1-Why should the largest degree of trend be an impulse? This is what we were taught for stocks because, according to Elliott theory, they are a measure of progress of mankind. Fine, makes sense, but currencies are a relative measure between countries. History shows that nations progress and regress relative to their neighbours, but in the end we're all progressing together (very long term), so why should we expect the largest degree of trend to be impusive? To ask a different way, at its largest degree of trend, the Roman Denari went from reserve currency down to zero, was this trend impulsive or corrective?
2-The other line of thinking is reflected in my last question. For stocks, we have a guesstimate by Prechter going back to the 1700's. But where's the chart for the CAD/USD exchange rate pre-1973? Seems to me that it would probably show one hell of an impulse for the USD to become reserve currency of the world...
|
11-13-2007, 07:30 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,592
|
|
|
Heads up guys,
Id start looking for a turn in the Yen pairs now for a final wave 5 down. The Cad/Jpy is looking clearest to me. Wave IV may be ending now at 38.2% of wave III with an abc correction where wave b is en expanded flat. If you decide to trade this, keep in mind it should be a wave 5 of 1 down. Look out for truncation as well. It is a 300 pip drop below wave 3 extreme so the potential for a short term trade is there with excellent risk/reward. Look at the other Yen pairs if you don' t lke this one. If this is a turning point, it may happen with the other pairs as well.
Last edited by italm31; 06-11-2008 at 05:58 AM..
|
11-13-2007, 08:14 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 675
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by spin the o
Interesting topic speculator. I think there are 2 ways to look at the question:
1-Why should the largest degree of trend be an impulse? This is what we were taught for stocks because, according to Elliott theory, they are a measure of progress of mankind. Fine, makes sense, but currencies are a relative measure between countries. History shows that nations progress and regress relative to their neighbours, but in the end we're all progressing together (very long term), so why should we expect the largest degree of trend to be impusive? To ask a different way, at its largest degree of trend, the Roman Denari went from reserve currency down to zero, was this trend impulsive or corrective?
2-The other line of thinking is reflected in my last question. For stocks, we have a guesstimate by Prechter going back to the 1700's. But where's the chart for the CAD/USD exchange rate pre-1973? Seems to me that it would probably show one hell of an impulse for the USD to become reserve currency of the world...
|
Not quite we were at a 50+ year low in the usd/can.
I believe the USD became reserve currency somewhere in the end all ties to gold scheme and pricing of oil only in USD.
For the record I think the high is in for usd/can short-term. We'll hit .9000 before we goto .9750. Shorts ready if do though  .
|
11-13-2007, 08:20 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,592
|
|
|
Hey guys,
Check out the Gbp/Jpy. It may be about to start wave V down as well. As momentum is turning down there as well. This one is over 600 pips away from wave 3 extreme? Look out for a wave 5 truncation. Although given the fear in the market right now, an extended 5th wouldn't shock me.
Last edited by italm31; 06-11-2008 at 05:58 AM..
|
11-13-2007, 08:26 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 675
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by italm31
Hey guys,
Check out the Gbp/Jpy. It may be about to start wave V down as well. As momentum is turning down there as well. This one is over 600 pips away from wave 3 extreme? Look out for a wave 5 truncation. Although given the fear in the market right now, an extended 5th wouldn't shock me.
|
3 could be C and the turn is already upon us. Gold is firming on 800.
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is On
|
|
|
|
