I realize that news lags the waves. If they didn't, the stock market would have crumbled with the whole sub prime debacle weeks ago (which is just begininng i believe and will probably be blamed on the coming Credit crash including carry trade)

But news is still worth reading not to forecast what will happen but to explain what is happening in the present with regards to the market at hand as well as the social mood in general. Basically its not what news comes out that matters, but the meaning attached to that news. Social mood is like an RSI indicator. At tops everyone wants in or "they'll miss the boat", meanwhile the time to get in has past and gone. The RSI peaks in a wave 3 and in a wave 5 it makes a new high because everyone wants in but the RSI diverges (makes a lower high) Thats Y I read the news and believe the JPY pairs have started downward and USD/JPY and CAD/JPY topped last week. Here is a news story from Blomberg that may be of some interest.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...byw&refer=home

Possible end diagonal forming on GBP/JPY 10 min chart. Also CAD/JPY as well as USD JPY made 5 waves downs over night on 10 min charts as well. Cad/JPY just broke down to wave 3 on 10 min chart as well. A brake below 116.14 is confirmation that wave 3 of 1 down is on the way on the daily chart. looking for wave 1 to complete at 108 mark because thats where the ending diagonal began.

Ok. i think Today will be the great day for every trader who want to get 200 pips till friday,i think euro should sell around 1.3820 to 1.3640.i think we now are in the top of wave 2.ok please somebody tell me what level is the top of the next week(the top of the wave (2)).please let us reduce the gap between knowlege of elliot wave and how trading with waves(measure of wave ,when(time) and where(target) wave go)
happy trading
Hadi

Just to add to the USDJPY (and Yen pairs in general), if 121.55 is broken, then the triangle interpretation is out the window and focus would shift to 120.97. A bullish outcome is possible as long as price is above 120.97 but coming under 121.55 would destroy confidence in the bull outlook.

I don't know what is the meaning of numbers somtimes write in elliot analysis same as 7/12 in your analysis.may i ask you discribe it to me.and another q? about the ending diagonal triangle.Did you still believe that wave 1or 3and 5 of ending can be impulsive wave and if yes, as you said befor,how match your answer with the sources said they should subdivided to 3 waves.Thanks in advance.
Hadi

I'm in total agreement with Jamie on this one. Ive been waiting for a break below 121.55 to confirm a what I believe to be the start of iii of 1 down. For the CAD/JPY its actually 116.12.
Also, Eur/chf is completing a possible double zigzag correction upward on a daily chart. Today's high is actually 2 pips away from a 78.6 % retracement of the initial 5 waves down. That merits some attention. Keep an eye out for wave 3 down to begin shortly. A break below 1.6520 is need for confirmation.
Also Hadi, I believe Jamie meant the date when (7/12).

Hey Hadi,

I think its great that your learning Elliot Wave as its a great start and a great BASE. Elliot Wave works but the reason there are so many critics is that you could be the most profound, most thorough, most skilled Elliot expert that this planet has ever seen. Believe it or not, that DOES NOT guarantee your success. It does not by any means make you a great trader. Good analyst and good trader are 2 different entities. Elliot can give you an edge but that edge is also a double edge sward and it can ruin you. Especially when you get good. You'll make good trades, you'll make really bad ones. You'll analyze every time frame in every market you see.

Keep this in mind...you could only be sure of a wave count once the wave is over...and even then, it could be left to interpretation. Even with Elliot, find your niche. What type of trader are you. Position, swing, scalper, contrarian, trend follower. Just remember, the only guarantee in trading is that there are no guarantees. You want to choose only the high probability trades. You want to always have a stop and a target. Don't ever get in and say "well since I'm up, Ill wait and see where it goes." It will turn against you or "well I'm down but I think it will turn around because thats what it did last time". It wont. The reason your down is your analysis was wrong and so was your entry. Get out and move on. Accept your errors.

The best thing any trader can do especially at the beginning is paper trader, find your method, have the discipline to trade it. Thats why most traders fail, they don't have a concrete method and give up before they actually get one. And even when they do have one (which is rare cause most don't...even Ellioticians) they think they are better that they really are and don't wait for their own rules of method to kick in before getting in.

Wait till you have all the info before declaring a wave count. Always have alternate counts, get in on confirmations not assumptions, don't be afraid to admit your wrong, don't be quick to assume your right (even if your up), learn from your mistakes, and finally, don't EVER EVER EVER OVER TRADE. If your down on the day or week, don't be scared to close your computer and come back when markets are closed to see what transpired. Thats the best time to analyze markets because there is no stress. If you try to analyze while NFP numbers are coming out, chances are your emotions will over take your analysis.

If anybody wants to add their 2 cents worth, feel free. Sometimes it does a trader good to go over their own mental rules because we've all been guilty of forgetting them. BEING HUMAN MEANS BEING TEMPTED TO REACT TO OUR EMOTIONS.

Hope this helps and good trading.

well,that was a nice advice,i absoutlly agree with you and thank you very much.I try to exercise more for better trading.
Hadi

i am a bit confusing about big picture of euro,could you help me?.if we are in large (B) which go beyond the beginning of large (A).how can we match this irregular flat correction with elliot theory ,because (A) should be 3 waves in irregular flat correction,but (A) is 5 waves,another q i want to know do you agree with this idea says a part of ending diagonal triangle can be impulsive waves ,for example in euro wave 1 ,3,5 are 5 waves(in diagonal),how this idea match with elliot theory.i think you are the only a person who answer my q?.
Thanks
Hadi

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Again euro up to 1.3870 & 1.3920 or trend change to downward?

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Hey Hadi,

Ive wondered about that myself. Your right, in an irregular flat wave A is "suppose" to be 3 waves. Heres my take on the whole big picture with the Euro. Maybe the intitial 1, 2 down is not the begining of an impulse, but a wave 4 and a truncated 5. Then you have 3 waves down. I know. Sounds far fetched but Mother Market throws so many curve balls at us that we never know for sure what will happened.

Now heres what I do with the Euro. For me, the wave count for the big picture is not important. I have alternate wave counts including the diagonal that maybe transpiring now. But the wave count is not important. I stopped obsesesing over it a long time ago. Whats important is I realise through Elliot Wave its at an extreme.Whetther its a B wave or a wave 5, I dont really care. Im waiting for the turn down to trade it. For now, there are much better oppertunities than the Euro USD with much easier wave counts.

BTW during the night, the EUR/CHF hit the 78.6% retracement and turned down. I think it may have topped. I'm looking for a reversal day then Ill analyze the wave count on a smaller scale before entering.
Also, the CAD/JPY is forming a possible diagonal with is a possible final wave on the hourly. Its almost at its 78.6 % retracement of 117.41. Its hit 117.30 over night.

yes i agree with you counting waves is not useful ,i just try to count waves (for the first parameter)for underestading which kind of waves infront of me.thanks a lot
Hadi

I have been focusing on the USDJPY for the entire week for a reason. I think there is a good opportunity there. Bottom line - I am bullish as long as price is above 120.97. Wave 2 of a 5 wave impulse either ended at 121.55 or is still in progress and will end below 121.55 but before 120.97. I am throwing the triangle interpretation out because price exceeded 122.40 this morning. Either way, wave 3 is expected to unfold soon - probably next week but possiby beginning today. 124.13 is expected to give way and a rally through 122.61 would confirm my bullish count. The line in the sand is 120.97

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Now develops 4-th wave and after the ending of correction for it 5-th wave will follow in area 1.40





2 Jamie Saettele

Good counting

may i see your weekly count chart for euro.
Thanks
Hadi