Moving along ,

The Gbp /Usd appears that the 50 % Retracement line is still holding as resistance
Still watching this Gap ...........
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Will we close it in the coming days ? .............. I really don't know

I'm just pointing out to everyone is that it is there starring at all of us !
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Adrian ,
Here is a video I just found about trading Gaps ...........
( FXCM produced this video )

So I think that Jamie knows him .......... Please see this video .....
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http://www.pfxglobal.com/index.php?o...043&Itemid=150
Click here
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Marketwarez, its just my opinion but I think the gap tried to fill on Nov 14 but couldn't. I think that's where A was and B was where your A is. I think C was put in today and that there will be a retest of the 2.035 (and possibly down to 2.025). Then the longer term up trend to 2.25 should resume.

Again just my thoughts, and more so I have something to look back at and laugh when I find out how wrong I am/will be.

Doc, thanks for pointing that out. I think you are absolutely correct. We've completed B for EURJPY and heading for C (in a simple large degree). We probably trade back up into the 164 - 165 range in the short rally to come here to set the stage for that massive correction lower. I see an eventual retracement to around 130 (based on wave 4 of the long term move up) since we've completed a full series up beginning in 2000.

Again this is another scary pair. This coincides with the fears about the eventual unwind of the carry trade. Some speculate that the carry trade in Euros may now be greater than in USD which could be signified by the greater gains potential in EURJPY shorts. If the numbers based on EW analysis are even half true, we're in for one heck of a recession/depression/cataclysm.

On a separate (but related note). It was interesting to hear the deal today by Citi group. The market is going to trade up based on the fact that holders of USD's have to find something to do with their dollars since they can't economically get out of them? And the price that Citi was willing to pay to get some cash and is still not willing to take the CDO's on its balance sheet? The reason that they're doing that can only be that the ultimate exposure for them can't even be contemplated (at least at this point since they are looking for even more deals to hold them over). To me those guys are in big trouble. Just like Countrywide was when they tried to make their Hail Mary deal.

Finally, how about all those Fed members that are going around saying that there will be no cuts at the December meeting? When the market doesn't get the cut (in spite of beings repeatedly told so beforehand) - Whoa! Keeps all firearms locked away on Dec. 11.

{Steps down off the soap box}

heads up guys,
I see a beautiful opportunity of at least a temporary top on the Eur/Gpb.

Hi Guys,

What's with the hate euro campaign going on heheh. It is my fave pair since starting this journey almost 2 years ago. Here's what I see for the pair, heading for 4770 very short term to complete at least a flat correction.

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Hi Kurt
do you have a chart that you can post
so we see visually what you are saying ?
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Can you please post a chart ?

Thanx in Advance ................

Yeah Kurt,thats right,about the Eur/Jpy ,a rally first.The way I see it we are presently range trading in a possible B wave triangle of a big wave 2 correction [clear on 4hr chart] bounded by trend lines.If this is correct we should expect a sharp wave C to break the upper trend line first before we commence our 3rd wave decline.But playing with the Asian tiger (Jpy) can be dangerous and ultimately deadly (once bitten....).So ultimately the safer entry I think is still the break of 158.67.

Sure Marketwavez, here goes such as my photochopping can create.

First is just the channel that GBPUSD has been running in for some time.

Next is the 2 hour chart. I see a combination correct which ultimately results in X being placed somewhere near or south of 2.035.


However, I looked at Jamie's interpretation after my comment and saw he has it as an impulse wave. I just can't see how this could be an impulse wave with that number of degrees that will stay within the channel. As well, I can't see that the pair put in a major top. I could very well be wrong of course. Either way however the consensus direction is down and the question is how low can they go?

Good call on this Italm. One thing is that I use channels to calculate 5 ends based on a parallel line from 2 to 4. I've read that this can help to delineate the final channel. Usually you're supposed to draw the parallel line from 2 to 4 through the top of wave 3 but if wave 3 is too strong then through wave 1. From my own observations, usually wave 1 works far more accurately. Is this something you follow?

Anyway, based on using this approach I come up with v ending where you have iii. Then I have iv as a and b is extended (so your v). From this and assuming a retracement to around iv (which I have then lower than yours), I get a correction to about 0.705.

Please let me know your thoughts on this.

Italm that looks like a good chance but I,m bitter I missed that 3rd wave rally just like I did in Eur/Aud where I jumped in at the tail end and almost got whipsawed to death.However I'm petrified of countertrend moves except on top of B waves.

Hey guys, has anyone else have the same count on the euro or is it just me

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And here is the cable. I'm thinking it might break that pennant to the upside first and touch the resistance at 61.8 before comming down. I just don't see any impulsive moves yet which makes me think we are still in correction.

But of course I might be wrong.

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Yeah Kurt,thats right about Eur/Jpy,a rally first before the decline.I think we are currently range trading in a B wave triangle bounded by trend lines.And we are in the middle of a larger 2nd wave.If I am correct prices should break the upper trend line and push upwards in a C wave before the final decline in big 3rd wave decline.However playing with Jpy can be dangerous and ultimately devastating so I think the safest entry remains the sustained break of 158.65.

i agree with you jimbo but maybe the last legs will be 3 instead of 5 in process.