I think euro completed 5 waves(5 at 1.3840)and we can see a(1.3843 to1.3793) and b(1.3793 to 1.3851) and c(1.3851 to ?).any body agree with me.
Thanks

Hey Blueman,

Still too early too tell for sure. So far, the Euro made 3 waves dow. Id wait for wave 4 and 5 to happen then look for a pull back. The GBP/USD as well as the CHF/USD sugests the strength in the dollar is corrective. More reason to wait. You might be agale to catch a short move to the upside this week.

how are u?it is my elliott counting.
happy trading
bi

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Sterling is likely to fall a bit more - towards parallel channel support and the former 4th wave (2.0459/68). Look for the end of this correction near that level. Those willing to take multi-week position should place a stop below the high of wave 1 at 2.0203 and target the 2.1000 figure.

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Jamie,

I am keeping an eye on your EURGBP analysis. Yesterday we had a really nice hammer happening at the 50% retracement from 0.6536-0.6868 at 0.6702, and at the level of wave 4. Looked to me like an ideal entry. Where would you have set the stoploss. Below the hammer or below 0.6536 ?
Please note, i am demo trading, so i am just looking for an input for education purpose.

Thanks

In these instances, I always place the stop below the beginning of wave 1. The structure is bullish as long as price is above the low of wave 1 (in this case that is .6535).

i do'nt deny which euro can test the end of wave 4 in this sharp falling but just a flat correction can lead it again higher so wave a should be a-b-c,i also confusing if this sharp move is a-b-c why c is triple of wave a in price.
bi

i mean this chart.

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Anybody following other markets ?
SP500, oil, gold ?

Watching the oil on the daily. It has a nice 5 wave down from the top at 79 from july 2006 down to the low at 51 in january 2007. Not sure what the move back up to 76 is. Looks like a simple zigzag to me. Any opinion ?

unfourtunatlly i just work on euro.
hadi

I agree with you, it looks like a zigzag and that the next move down is going to be a big decline. However, let's keep this forum focused on currencies.

Hey Blueman,

I see nothing wrong with your wave count. As far as "is it correct"? The only thing that could tell you if your wave count is correct with 100 percent certainty is once its over. As far as how it looks, Id say it looks good. Now all you could do is place your bet with a stop or limit or stand on the sidelines based on your own wave count. If your stop is hit, you were wrong. Its that easy. I don't mean to sound so simplistic as we all know its not but no one person could tell you with 100% assurance if your wave count is right at the present time. All you could is use probability.

For now, I'm glancing at the USD pairs but my focus is on the JPY pairs. I will re access the USD pairs only at weeks end unless I REALLY see something I like. I missed on opportunity on the USD/CHF the other day as as I saw an entry point to go long. I meant to go back to it but I forgot about it and lost my chance. Those are the breaks. You get opportunities almost everyday...but those opportunities still always stem from probabilities, not certainty. The trick is to take the ones with the highest probabilities based on your perception and experience.

You are right. I just thought that oil, gold can sometimes influence currencies as well. It just sound crazy that oil might actually come down in the near future...

How about if we start a thread on global warming.... ?

Hey Serhito,

I think oil is about to drop. I realise this forum is about currencies so lets talk currencies. Once the Yen carry trade goes, its taking all markets with it including oil with it. So Yes, I believe oil is about to drop thats y you see the zig zag. Whats responsible for the droping markets? The credit bubble we are in.
Basically, we hear alot about the CDOs and Subprime Mrgages. Those were just financial instruments that used to increase credit use. Just like the Carry trade. Another instrument used. Where did all this money and credit go? They basically drove up all markets into what we Eliotticians call wave FIVES...a new extreme with weak fundementals. Thats why watching the JPY pairs makes the sence right now and y Im more bullish the Yen than any other currency right now.

The EURUSD has traced out a nice 5 down, indicating that the larger trend has turned (down). Look for a pullback in 3 to get bearish.

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