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11-29-2007, 09:00 PM
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Reversal?
Hi Jamie, I usually do EW in my studies of the market but in doing so ran into this discovery, could you please look at it and let me know what you think. Anyone else feel free to chime in also. Thanks in advance!
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11-29-2007, 11:11 PM
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Wondering if anyone can tell me about the issue with AUDUSD in August of this year. It looks like wave IV came down through wave I. Is that correct? If so, how does this resolve itself? Is this likely to be a terminal impulse? I have wave 5 reaching above par against the USD if there is to be one.
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11-30-2007, 07:46 AM
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Kurt,
I think that the AUDUSD is completing a large ending diagonal. My objective is at 98
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11-30-2007, 07:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXFox
Hi Jamie, I usually do EW in my studies of the market but in doing so ran into this discovery, could you please look at it and let me know what you think. Anyone else feel free to chime in also. Thanks in advance!
Attachment 9673 |
This is certainly interesting. It does indeed make sense that when RSI penetrates 75, that the EURUSD would be due for a large correction. RSI at that level (especially on a daily), indicates extreme optimism and that a pullback at the least is due. If we calculate a 500 pip decline from 1.4966, then we'd be at 1.4466 (fairly close to the 1.4520 support level). The blue bars on this chart represent when RSI was above 75. However, I do not have RSI above 75 right now, although it is divergent.
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11-30-2007, 08:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edisko
Hi boys, I tried to wear unconventional glasses. Wave 4 meant to be triangle. I just couldnīt imagine where EUR should rise if in 3rd of 3rd (according Jamieīs count). Now I would await deep iv.
Attachment 9671 |
I had not even thought of this count before, but I like it. Awesome job! This helps satisfy the problem of having so many overlaps in the rise from 1.1640
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11-30-2007, 08:46 AM
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Thanks Jamie. So would that indicate an eventual retracement to Wave IV of 1 to around 65?
Looks like USDJPY has bounced off 111 and should retrace to about 110.
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11-30-2007, 08:50 AM
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Thank you Jamie. Overlaping made me to think about this count. Let see if market will accept it.
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11-30-2007, 08:53 AM
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Here is a monthly of AUDUSD. An 8 wave cycle might be close to complete from the early 1970's. Objectives are 96-98. Might we need one more push to complete wave 5 of C? If so, then look in the 96-98 area for a top. Eventually, price could all the way back to test .4775...this is obviously a very long ways off but it is interesting to look at now.
As for USDJPY. I do expect a larger setback, as I mentioned this morning.
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11-30-2007, 09:22 AM
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Hey guys,
Im looking for the Usd/Jpy to make 1 final low beginning very soon.
Last edited by italm31; 06-11-2008 at 05:59 AM..
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11-30-2007, 10:01 AM
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Dow bounced down off its 50% retracement between the October high and November low this morning. What does everyone think? 13100 on the Dow next?
USDCAD looks like it might be trying to start a wave 3.
Last edited by kurt683; 11-30-2007 at 10:07 AM..
Reason: Add.
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11-30-2007, 10:04 AM
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Thanks Jamie, its nice to hear another voice on it rather than just the voices in my head. Its certainly something to keep an eye on, especially when there are other indicators suggesting the same scenario.
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11-30-2007, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kurt683
Dow bounced down off its 50% retracement between the October high and November low this morning. What does everyone think? 13100 on the Dow next?
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Hey Kurt,
I believe we may have topped with the Yen so if they are trading in tandem with each other, then the Dow is likely to have topped today as well. 50% is typically the max target for a wave 4. Anybody ever notice how every time Bernache opens his mouth, traders become hopeful bringing the markets to its unavoidable top. Its classic...lol. People should start doing the opposite of what he feds are trying to accomplish.
Last edited by italm31; 11-30-2007 at 10:15 AM..
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11-30-2007, 10:29 AM
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Hey guys, what do you think of the euro right now ? Up from here to complete wave b 
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11-30-2007, 10:29 AM
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Italm, true that USDCAD may range trade. Time will tell. If we are into wave 3 we'll know today and we'l know whether CADJPY is trading as an expanded flat.
Bernanke is like Pavlov. The market salivates when he holds out the treat. However, some pundits are talking about 100 basis point cuts and the market wants 50 for sure. They will like be disappointed when he only gives them part of a biscuit.
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11-30-2007, 10:33 AM
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Jamie, thanks for your outlook on AUDUSD. I would have thought that in the longer term the fundamentals would point towards AUD being stronger just due to expansion along with China. At least I have it in my mind that there is somewhat of a relationship there and Aussieland should gain some benefits from that. I'll have to look into it further.
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