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12-02-2007, 02:55 PM
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One more chart for fun. Logarithmic chart of the Dow from 1900. Are we in wave 4? (Hopefully?)
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12-02-2007, 11:55 PM
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To whoever is the moderator of this thread or the one who screens the post before allowing ot to be viewed by the public....
I tried posting 2 charts I think last Saturday. I was looking for some feedback if my EW Counts were correct for GBPJPY.
Up to now it has not been posted. May I please know if that was not allowed or did it not reach your site at all.
This is the second time I treeied to post and did not see my post appear on the thread.
The first time it did not appear, I assumed it was because it was related to the first chart I posted which already appeared on the thread.
But this second time, I am not sure what happened anymore.
May I suggest that if the post is not allowed, could you please atleast email the poster to at least let him/her know that the post arrived at your screen but unfortunately it was disapproved for viewing. This way we do not wonder if it ever reached your screen for evaluation or not.
EG888
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12-03-2007, 07:43 AM
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Let's not make it too complicated, currently we have 3 waves down on Usd/Yen daily, that doesn't mean that it won't become 5 waves. Just that the current rise does look impulsive and nearly went into the extreme of wave 1. Another high above 111.22 and a break of 111.59 will just make it impulsive where we can then wait for a pullback before jumping in the long position. Of course it prices start falling from here and goes under 109.00 the trend is still down. We might be in a major trend change that can last a few months, so I think it's better to stay away and wait for clarification before having a bias here.
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12-03-2007, 09:34 AM
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Brad,i think it is very nice chart but at the last large leg the wave 3(red) is very short as compare to wave 1 so i think it can not be a major wave for final target,so i think still euro can touch more higher around 1.5600.
blueman
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12-03-2007, 09:53 AM
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another counting.........
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12-03-2007, 10:09 AM
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Guest Moderator
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Hey Blueman ! :)
Hi there blue man ! Thanks for the criticism on my eur/usd chart  Wether each of us are right or wrong it's always good to have a picture of what's going on in the long term and a second opinion. I just wanted to mention that if you flip down to a weekly chart you will find last week left a nice bearish engulfing pattern. I know this is not the best spot to be taking on short positions. But I don't think now is the time to be going long.... I'll be waiting for the the pullback to buy in 
-Brad-
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12-03-2007, 10:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kurt683
One more chart for fun. Logarithmic chart of the Dow from 1900. Are we in wave 4? (Hopefully?)
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The highest probability is that we are in supercycle wave 4 within the 5 wave rally from the 1700's
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12-03-2007, 10:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EG888
To whoever is the moderator of this thread or the one who screens the post before allowing ot to be viewed by the public....
I tried posting 2 charts I think last Saturday. I was looking for some feedback if my EW Counts were correct for GBPJPY.
Up to now it has not been posted. May I please know if that was not allowed or did it not reach your site at all.
This is the second time I treeied to post and did not see my post appear on the thread.
The first time it did not appear, I assumed it was because it was related to the first chart I posted which already appeared on the thread.
But this second time, I am not sure what happened anymore.
May I suggest that if the post is not allowed, could you please atleast email the poster to at least let him/her know that the post arrived at your screen but unfortunately it was disapproved for viewing. This way we do not wonder if it ever reached your screen for evaluation or not.
EG888
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It is possible that the chart you tried to upload was too large. Keep the size to 750 pixels
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12-03-2007, 10:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohanS
Let's not make it too complicated, currently we have 3 waves down on Usd/Yen daily, that doesn't mean that it won't become 5 waves. Just that the current rise does look impulsive and nearly went into the extreme of wave 1. Another high above 111.22 and a break of 111.59 will just make it impulsive where we can then wait for a pullback before jumping in the long position. Of course it prices start falling from here and goes under 109.00 the trend is still down. We might be in a major trend change that can last a few months, so I think it's better to stay away and wait for clarification before having a bias here.
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Yes, we currently have 3 waves, but who says this 3rd wave is over and done with. Thats a dangerous assumption to make. This is still my primary count for the USD/Jpy. I mentioned a top on Friday was in place and so far, it was not breech so my count is still valid. Goes to show, not matter how corrective the count looks so far, you have let it play out before passing judgment. The corrective nature of the decline could have simply been lack of volatility due to it being Friday afternoon. My count told me we may have topped. Hourly were way overbought and momentum was turning down yet the decline looked corrective on Friday. Anyhow, I expect one more low before wave IV of a larger degree if its a large 3 wave or wave 1 if its a C wave. For now, Im trading for a new low target.
Last edited by italm31; 06-11-2008 at 06:59 AM..
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12-03-2007, 10:38 AM
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I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 107.20. Not only was 107.20 very close to a measured objective but the rally is in 5 waves. Recent weakness is likely wave A in an A-B-C (which will prove to be either a 2 or a larger B). Support should be solid in the 108.70/109.30 area. I expect the next advance to challenge 113.00
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12-03-2007, 11:15 AM
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Well I guess it depends if your looking at it through a bulls eyed view or a bears eyed view. Your count is certainly possible especially since daily momentum is still up but I don't see 5 waves. I see a 7 wave structure so far which is corrective. I guess time will tell. We both have the yen going down very short term. I still think we might make a new low.
Last edited by italm31; 06-11-2008 at 06:59 AM..
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12-03-2007, 11:30 AM
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I am not sure why you would favor this count because 4 is overlapping with 1 in this count.
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12-03-2007, 11:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
I am not sure why you would favor this count because 4 is overlapping with 1 in this count.
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No, because its not a clear count. All I know is I see 7 waves without forcing a count. Add that to the top on freiday being in the perfect resistence zone for a wave IV and momentum being down. Id say my odds are preety good.
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12-03-2007, 12:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Recently I was priveledged to have a look at Elliot Wave international's outlook on the euro/usd, it's looks pretty much like this... I've given more days of thought to this wave count then any man should.. lol I think a lot of people will be surprised when the euro doesn't break upward as fast as everyone would like !!
JAIME !!! Please tell me what you think of this count !
-BRAD-
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Brad, I have similar long term count on eurusd until wave blue B/2. We are different in upward move from 0.82 (what I count to be C/3). For my prefered please refer to:
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...postcount=1966
Long term picture has serious consequence for upward C/3. As wave blue A (from your chart) indeed seems to be leading diagonal C sholdn't form any diagonal (ending, ..) or impulse with first longest (alternation) That means wave blue 3 should be longer than blue 1 (in C/3). Small calculation gives you minimum target 1,63 for end of 3 and possibly higher in relatively short time. And then 5th. Under this scenario I would see top of C/3 somewhere near 2,00. Sure not impossible but more likely I see now being in 5th of C/3 with room for elongated 3th or 5th in 5 of C/3 and toping in the 1,5.. -1,7...
For Jamie:
Jamie it is another reason beside overlaps in 1,28 -1,33 to count as in post 1966.
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12-03-2007, 01:01 PM
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This is the count that I have had for some time and there is no reason to change it now. Basically, the EURUSD is in a 4th wave decline that should end before 1.4353. A new high will follow. An objective is at 1.5643 but that probably doesn't happen for a few months. Historically, December has been a bad month for the USD. I am looking for an entry near 1.4520
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